What is the best way to calculate NM odds?

[Forest]

Ok so yes u right. Had to think
About it. The way I explained it is reversed. Actually u have same odds as first no matter your second or third choice. It’s your last choice that decreases due to possibly drawing first or second but no matter your total odds are same as your last highest percentage choice? I think that makes better sense

Ya that would make sense i suppose

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[cmbbulldog]

The easiest way to explain NM elk odds is as follows: they arent very good, especially for the “better units”. But someone has to draw!

 

[sasquatch]

You pick 3 choices

All diff hunts, units, seasons, or whatever

You get assigned some random number

When they get to your number they look at your first choice, if there’s still tags available for it you get the tag, if not they look at your second choice, if there’s tags for it still available you get that tag, if not it’s on to your third choice.


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[trophyhill]

To answer the op........no, and I live here

 

[TBoschma]

Lived and hunted there 5 years... when you figure out their odds I've got a pile of cash for you its been a while but Gohunt had a decent odds calculator last year, i still wouldn't say its a 100% but who knows i guess you just gotta gamble a little and forget the odds my wife pulled a unit 36 rifle tag this year and that can be darn tough one to get!

 

[wapitibob]

Both toprut buys the applicant database and runs draw simulations on the data, I believe gohunt does the same. But again, you need to remember that those are last years odds. If the apps stay pretty much the same for the coming year, so will your odds.
If you're wondering how or why toprut does his nm odds, email him. He's easy to talk to and pretty upfront with his methods.

from my notes...
the correct way to figure is to calculate your chance of not drawing any tag at all, then take the inverse as your odds of drawing at least one of the tags.

For example you have a 25/26 (or 96.15%) chance of NOT drawing a deer tag, a 433/434 (or 99.77%) chance of NO elk tag, etc,etc,

Multiply all .9615 x .9977 x .9991 x .75 = .7188 or a 71.88% chance of not drawing any tag, with the inverse (100% minus 71.88%) being 28.12% chance of drawing at least one tag.

 

[seldomseensmith]

Lazy people make the odds better. The odds report is busy for sure. I’m glad people are too lazy to “do the math”. When I moved to NM I realized that most NM hunters didn’t even understand the draw process. I dug in and I’m not about to brag on the internet about draw odd success rates but I’ll tell you it’s well worth your time.


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[timberland]

I have specific units in mind due to previous intel, so I am not shopping for the unit with the best odds. my gut tells me I am only competing with others who apply to the same units, and that I can wrap my head around. It does not account for when in the lineup your app gets chosen, though.

 

[Still Hunter]

There is no magic. Pick your units, pay the money and cross your fingers. Improve the odds a little, get an outfitter. Otherwise buy a landowner tag in a great unit and go hunt. It's a money thing. You got the money, (fortunately) you can find a place to kill an animal. No money (unfortunately), join the game and roll the dice.