What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[MattB]

Does the EU have a travel ban with any other countries besides the US? Does the EU have a ban on Chinese travel?

Inquiring minds want to know. Those looters and violent protestors, who refused social distancing and face masks, sure spiked the virus rate now in the US. That's why the EU has to institute a ban. lol

You are back, got that rifle stock paid for?

From what I have read, I believe the EU has a total ban travel for outsiders right now but as they are considering reopening in July they may extend the ban to the US.

There doesn't seem to be any evidence that the protests caused spikes in COVID, but it will be interesting to see if Tulsa has a spike in COVID cases over the next week or so.

 

[MattB]

Personally I don't care about the EU's opinion of how we are handling this.

Not sure why it is surprising to anyone that large states with huge metro areas are experiencing large increases in case numbers. You aren't going to stop the virus. Just as well get through it.

The good thing is as the case numbers continue to climb the death rate continues to fall.

I think it is more complex than that. Here in CA, LA county is blowing up (and has been for some time) while there are other counties with similar densities/demographics have much lower case counts per capita. LA county has close to 900 cases/100,000 whereas we were one of the first COVID hot spots and yet are at 200 cases/100,000.

It appears to be much more linked to the phase of re-opening, as LA county has been ahead of us, plowing forward even when the case numbers were accelerating.

 

[Mike7]

Just this week I had my first 3 cases in an extended family and maybe more to come...all infected by a young family member who has been in Seattle the past 3 weeks during the riots.

So far all fairly young and with 1 day of low grade fever only...they wouldn't know they had it, except for original case getting tested. Another exposed family member is already traveling and south in Boise before finding out that someone had tested positive. And another family member is immunocompromised with millions of medical dollars already spent in his/her short life at one of a handful of top medical centers in the whole world which are all here in the US interestingly (for treatment/surgeries that would not be done anywhere else in the world), but has hopefully not been exposed. What is your solution to the above issues? Try to think multi-dimensionally with your solution.

Areas in the US with prior low rates, are ripe for increases. This infection will wax and wane in different areas.

Does this article say what you imply?...don't just read headlines.

U.S. Citizens Likely to Be Barred as Europe Reopens Borders For Travel, Tourism

The European Commission says travel restrictions should not be lifted for countries "where the situation is worse" than in the EU

time.com

Secondly, do you figure other countries with positive cases are crappy countries, given that the countries that test most have more cases?

Third, are you saying that the fed govt was wrong not to institute nation-wide Marshall Law a few weeks ago and takeaway authority from the states who let people travel & gather together in large groups from all over to assault their fellow citizens and pass infection all over the nation where undoubted vulnerable uninfected people live?

Fourth, how do you explain increased rates in only 3% of counties in a crappy country, and flat hospitalization and death rates virtually everywhere?

5th, do you take into account recent antibody tests in your numbers that arent recent infections and account for an estimated 16% of so called new cases?

6th, since when did european health departments considering doing the same thing that we are already doing while assessing a whole host of factors, somehow mean that we are a crappy country?

7th, I am sorry if anyone feels personally attacked by anything that I have posted, while trying to debunk false or unnecessarily inflammatory information. But if you are the one posting this time and time again, regardless of your motives, are you yourself not to blame?...or should those of us interested in some of these medical, economical, and ethical questions, and who actually work in this field just sit and say nothing? Or if you are a bomb thrower, and can't defend your position with facts, or worse yet ignore facts which dispute your feelings, then should you ban yourself from the thread?

Personally, I usually participate when I am stuck somewhere on call and bored, but I have difficulty letting some misinformation go unchallenged if I do decide to participate. Hopefully it is just a defect of being a free American with a natural disdain for mindless group think, and a reverance for critical thinking and rugged individualism.

 

[RyanT26]

This week in Kansas, Queen Kelly updated her list of states that I would have to quarantine after I visit.
She removed Connecticut, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Rhode Island.
The queen added Arizona, Alabama, and Arkansas.
Nothing she does makes any sense. You could take Arizona, Alabama, and Arkansas active total cases and it was still not equal New Jersey’s let alone New York’s.
Here’s a hot take As states open up New York for example, You’re going to see cases increase again.

 

[NDGuy]

There doesn't seem to be any evidence that the protests caused spikes in COVID, but it will be interesting to see if Tulsa has a spike in COVID cases over the next week or so.

Considering like 7k people were there I doubt it will be massive.

 

[Foldem]

The EU travel ban just highlights their perception of how poor a job the US is doing in addressing COVID.

Emotion and politics over data. See post 4507.

And nothing to do with this....

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

Curve flattened ☑

 

[RyanT26]

The True Coronavirus Case Tally in The US Could Be Over 80 Times Larger Than Reported

The US may never know the true tally of its coronavirus infections – but scientists are getting closer to an accurate count.

www.sciencealert.com

“The nation's current case count hovers around 2.4 million. But a study published Monday in the journal Science estimated that the US saw 8.7 million coronavirus cases from March 8 to 28.

The country's official tally indicates there were about 100,000 infections during that time period, suggesting that the real-life outbreak was more than 80 times larger than the one reported.”

“The findings support what epidemiologists have long suspected: The coronavirus is far more prevalent and less deadly than current figures suggest.”

I call BS on the last part. It seems like the epidemiologist on tv reports ,cough Fauci cough, were still preaching about how this is the end of days, virus second coming of the Spanish flu fairly recently while most people that disputed it where criticized for being a nonbeliever of the experts.
Anybody remember the good all days of the experts claiming it was a 4-5% death rate has anybody sit down and tried to figure out what the rate currently is at. It’s pretty goddamn low. Years from now we will look back at what a gross knee-jerk overreaction the response was laugh because that’s about the only thing will be able to do.
And yet here we are still being bombarded with coronavirus news morning noon and night. Fun times.

 

[FLAK]

Nearly 5 mos. into it,,, I now call it Covid 45. As in, invented for the removal of the 45th President.

 

[MattB]

Emotion and politics over data. See post 4507.


Curve flattened ☑

Wow, way to ignore the other line on the chart. It is no surprise there is so little common ground in this discussion. The EU, while having ~1/3 more people than the US, is experiencing ~1/5 the daily new cases that we are. That chart demonstrates the point I was making to a tee so thank you for pulling that forward, but emotions and politics you say...

 

[jmez]

Interesting study and numbers Glockstar

Sent from my moto g power using Tapatalk

 

[Mike7]

Our testing went up significantly this past week due to mild viral illness symptoms and/or people just having heightened concerns. And although the local numbers don't yet show it, I am anticipating an increase in cases (whether real or from increased testing) here over the next week as the clearly increased positive cases that I am seeing this week haven't yet made it into the stats.

If a real increase, this would mean increased hospitalization numbers and possibly deaths, showing up in the numbers in about 3-4 wks from now perhaps. Maybe no increased deaths though if old people stay locked down?

If this increase occurs even outside of urban areas, is this associated with young people/travelers returning from the protests/riots and seeding other areas?

I think it would be tough to know outside of annecdotal cases like I have seen this week. It doesn't seem like we have really had a major change in activities here since April, other than some kids sports opening up the past month? Our nation naturally has so much travel and interconnectedness though even through any lockdowns.

One thing is just a little odd to me...there a rural counties nearby with no known cases, despite having major highways/freeways going right through them.

One thing is for sure, if we see a real significant though likely temporary bump over the next few weeks as I expect, the media is going to go even more crazy, like rabid dogs. And if this occurs, despite the low covid death rate, is there going to be a big push again to shut down the country and potentially this time bring on a depression?

 

[Mike7]

The other question maybe we should ask now, is even if you don't agree with Americans in for instance the arid southwest choosing to travel more freely and not wear masks as much as other areas, if indeed that has a causal relationship in this case, are we not in a preferred position compared to Europe if we can get a semblance of herd immunity over the next few months, while not destroying our economy further (which will increase other cause morbidity & mortality rates), and all without having covid death rates go up? That would seem like potentially a best case scenario, whether planned or not.

News Clip from the Hill:
Tom Inglesby, director of the Center for Health Security at Johns Hopkins University, said on Fox News Sunday that he does not think states need to reimpose lockdowns at this point but that “governors should be guiding their public to avoid large gatherings, where we see the greatest potential risk.”

“We should be encouraging people to wear face coverings, to stay at a distance, to avoid large gatherings, to use hand sanitizer or wash your hands,” he added. “And those are the things that we know work and leaders really should, I think, double down in communicating that across the country.”

One silver lining so far is that U.S. deaths are not rising along with cases, and in fact are continuing to fall, down to an average of about 600 deaths per day, compared to a peak of more than 2,000 deaths per day in mid-April, according to data compiled by The New York Times.

Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, tweeted the decline in deaths is “among other things a reflection of improvements in medical care, and more diagnosed cases occurring in milder disease and younger patients as older individuals protect themselves better.”

 

[MattB]

Scott Gottlieb, the former Food and Drug Administration commissioner, tweeted the decline in deaths is “among other things a reflection of improvements in medical care, and more diagnosed cases occurring in milder disease and younger patients as older individuals protect themselves better.”

That speaks to another, seldom mentioned benefit of flattening the curve early, as our medical community has learned how to better treat the disease which will lead to better outcomes than we saw on the front end.

 

[Foldem]

Wow, way to ignore the other line on the chart. It is no surprise there is so little common ground in this discussion. The EU, while having ~1/3 more people than the US, is experiencing ~1/5 the daily new cases that we are. That chart demonstrates the point I was making to a tee so thank you for pulling that forward, but emotions and politics you say...

Look at post 4507, the US has significantly less deaths per capita than the EU. Also, the CDC is saying we’ve likely already had *edit* 23,000,000 true cases in the US. Are you really afraid of this still?

 

[Foldem]

That speaks to another, seldom mentioned benefit of flattening the curve early, as our medical community has learned how to better treat the disease which will lead to better outcomes than we saw on the front end.

Not overwhelming the medical system and giving time to develop treatments was the entire reason for flattening the curve. Seldom mentioned? It’s been touted from the get-go.

Like I said, curve flattened let’s move on come out of your house, turn off Rachele Madow, and live your life (with your mask on, I guess).

 

[durangobrad]

Risk of never fully recovering after coronavirus ‘very real,’ scientists say - National | Globalnews.ca

Besides the respiratory issues that leave patients gasping for breath, the virus that causes COVID-19 attacks many organ systems, in some cases causing catastrophic damage.

globalnews.ca

One of the more recent articles I've seen on the long lasting effects covid can have.

It's more than just the 1% that die, cause they're old or already sick, and the ones who fully recover. There's some pretty scary middle ground.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk

 

[MattB]

Look at post 4507, the US has significantly less deaths per capita than the EU. Also, the CDC is saying we’ve likely already had *edit* 23,000,000 true cases in the US. Are you really afraid of this still?

Are we listening to the CDC again? I thought this site had determined their data and direction is unreliable and they are part of the leftist government conspiracy?

And I am not quite sure where you get the notion that I am scared of the disease and have been holed up since the get go. Quite the contrary. Rather, I am hopeful we can get the economy going and keep it going, but that is being hampered in certain regions (e.g. Texas) by people who think that having Constitutional guarantees means science does not apply to them.

 

[3darcher2]

At 56, I've come to learn there's always a boogeyman somewhere, and it's always changing. It will morph into something that is unprovable and possible, with disputed data or no data.

I'm a scientist and I can tell you that over the past 20+ years there has been a definite change in theory. We used to go where the data took us. Now we predetermine the outcome, select the supporting data, and throw everything else out as an outlier. Usually, it's a good idea to follow the money, power, etc., while you're at it.

 

[Mike7]

I think the following interview is a really good, rational summary for medical and lay people alike, as long as everyone can get past that the interviewer happens to be an independent conservative.

If people really care to know this info, it is more of an inside medicine look, which is completely separate from what we have been getting in much of the media sadly.

After listening to this, your knowledge on covid 19 should be greater than 95% of Americans (and 99% of the media).
The interview can be found at:
Dr. Andrew Boston 6/24 on the podcast "Conservative Review" by Daniel Horowitz Episode 666.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

You are missing the point here. Do you ever go on vacation outside of the United States? Ever traveled outside of it for work maybe? It's pretty nice to have the freedom to do that should you choose to. I'm not talking about moving somewhere else permanently.... Simply having the freedom to roam other countries if I so choose whether that be for work or play. Rather quickly though, our country is getting the reputation of being the flea-ridden dog that nobody wants to touch so better to just keep them away.

That’s about the dumbest thing I’ve read in a while. If we are what you say, then why do all those “better” countries spend time comparing themselves to us.

I have a bit of wisdom for you. Nobody worries or compares themselves to the guy at the bottom. It doesn’t work that way.