Importance Deaths are frequently under-estimated during emergencies, such as hurricanes and pandemics. Accurate mortality data may improve public compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions. Objective This study estimates excess all-cause, pneumonia, and influenza mortality between March...
www.medrxiv.org
NOT PEERVREVIEWED YET. But more reliable than your brother's Facebook friend who says deaths are being under reported because all doctor, coroners, medical professionals, etc are liberals trying to instill fear.
Excess mortality is the difference between actual and expected all-cause, pneumonia, and influenza mortality. Deaths not explained by COVID-19 are the difference between the 95% credibility interval (CI) for excess mortality, and the number of reported COVID-19 deaths. The hypotheses were formed prior to data collection.
Results:
With the semiparametric method, we estimated 257-1024 more deaths in Illinois than COVID-19 case numbers (excess mortality 95% CI (939, 1706) vs. 682 COVID-19 deaths); 218-741 more deaths in Massachusetts (95% CI (904, 1427) vs. 686 COVID-19 deaths); 313-1100 more deaths in Michigan (95% CI (1704, 2491), vs. 1391 COVID-19 deaths); 2348-3661 more deaths in New Jersey (95% CI (4528, 5844), vs. 2183 COVID-19 deaths); and 5875-9738 more deaths in New York State (168-213% more) (95% CI (14502, 18365) vs. 8627 COVID-19 deaths).
Conclusions:
Official COVID-19 mortality figures substantially understate actual mortality and also suggest substantially greater case fatality rates. Improving mortality data dissemination may improve public adherence to non-pharmaceutical interventions and reduce mortality in future pandemics.
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