What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

[menhaden_man]

Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Downgrades Projection

Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential...

www.dailywire.com

My find this slightly humorous. Actually I find F’ing hilarious. wE hAvE tO tRusT thE exPeRts. 2.2 million dead was the big scary number that got thrown around

Numbers are like people - if you torture them enough they will tell you anything. I’m taking the under on total deaths in US in 2019 ~ 2.9 million died last year and we won’t see a bigger number this year.

 

[Mt Al]

Did you guys not read the revision at the bottom or just the parts you wanted to hear? He basically walks back his whole statement.

Yes, the part where he revises his earlier revision? And that he did so after he was criticized by other "experts" who have different models? Read that and thank you for confirming my point.

Did you just read his revision of his revision and believe that part?


from a journalist: "offered a massively downgraded projection of the potential deathtoll on Wednesday. "

and from a journalist: "Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, crediting lockdown measures, but also revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured."

From him Wednesday "And so we are revising our quotes, " and "the current values are still within the wide range of values which modeling groups [unintelligible] we should have been looking at previously.” Note the words "wide range" and "should have"

Now that he's getting body slammed for what he said, he writes "Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest..."

"our latest" - meaning his base line data changed from his initial data

Thank you again

 

[Elk97]

This is an interesting site.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

It projects when the peak of the virus will hit in the US, and you can select individual states with the drop down menu (in the green area). I hope the projections are correct, if so, the total US deaths will be much lower than other predictions I've seen and the worst will be over by first of May in most places. It's from the U of WA.

 

[tdot]

The only things the projections prove, is that we don't have enough good data to make good decisions.

Everyone will have a different opinion on whether it's better to overreact of under react based on the limited information that we do have and the huge amount that we dont know.

But I know when I lived in the Caribbean that if they forecast a hurricane, we took cover, it might not hit our island, but nothing was gonna save you if it did, and you weren't prepared.

 

[elkhunter505]

Better to be over prepared and not need it than to be under prepared and need it. Something I will always go by.

 

[Rmauch20]

Unfortunately the stupidity has finally made its way into western Kansas. safer at home orders are being issued. There’s so many people that are considered essential I don’t even really see what the point is. I hope the coronavirus takes out the people who come up with dip shit ideas like safer at home orders and then writes them so broad they include 80% of the general population. At least they will be able to sit back and slap each other on the dick saying, we did something, we’re helpers.
The stupidity this has caused in our society is worse than the actual virus.

 

[wind gypsy]

I've got to wonder if folks downplaying this are paying attention to what's happening in Italy and NY. The US seemingly had the most lax reaction to this among developed nations and now we're leading the way in case counts. It hasn't been about the body count for some time but more about completely crippling our hospitals. This article is pretty harrowing https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/nyregion/coronavirus-brooklyn-hospital.html

I'd imagine most folks on this site know someone well who is a doctor or nurse. Reading articles like the above and thinking that a huge percentage of them will end up with COVID certainly gives me pause. In Italy, 46 doctors (4 today) have died and 6414 total medical professionals have tested positive for COVID.

 

[jorgensen.travis]

I've got to wonder if folks downplaying this are paying attention to what's happening in Italy and NY. The US ahs seemingly had the most lax reaction to this among developed nations and now we're leading the way in case counts. It hasn't been about the body count for some time but more about completely crippling our hospitals. This article is pretty harrowing https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/nyregion/coronavirus-brooklyn-hospital.html

I'd imagine most folks on this site know someone well who is a doctor or nurse. Reading articles like the above and thinking that a huge percentage of them will end up with COVID certainly gives me pause. In Italy, 46 doctors (4 today) have died and 6414 total medical professionals have tested positive for COVID.

There are a lot of people who will play games in their head to not believe it. They’ll continue this until it effects them or a loved one. The problem I have with this, and the reason I’ve been outspoken about it, is that these are the people that are rapidly spreading the disease around. I think we all have a responsibility at this point to do our part to help mitigate the impact on our healthcare system. The thought of healthcare not being readily available to Americans is pretty scary. Just think about all the people that require emergency healthcare on a regular basis for reasons other than COVID19.


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[jmez]

More deaths in Italy today but 6th day in a row they have had less new cases than the peak. They are turning the corner.

New York only has a problem in NYC. You would expect that with their population density and a novel virus.

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[wind gypsy]

More deaths in Italy today but 6th day in a row they have had less new cases than the peak. They are turning the corner.

New York only has a problem in NYC. You would expect that with their population density and a novel virus.

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I hope Italy is turning the corner. From stories it seems like when the shit really hits the fan they don't prioritize testing anymore.

Obviously NYC is more vulnerable because of population density but I imagine if the whole county just wrote it off as another little virus less harmful than the flu things would be very ugly.

 

[Trial153]

More deaths in Italy today but 6th day in a row they have had less new cases than the peak. They are turning the corner.

New York only has a problem in NYC. You would expect that with their population density and a novel virus.

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are you currently in upstate NY? I am off my tour, stop by for a beer........at a distance of course. If not maybe you shouldnt talk out your ass. Because what we are seeing isnt matching your long distance prognostication

 

[MtnOyster]

Trump had to push the defense production act today and force GM to make ventilators, I was afraid this was gonna be a mess and I can’t think of anything that worked out good when someone is forced to do anything.

By the time all this gets worked out and going it will be over I’m afraid, some of my family and friends that are in the medical field isn’t sure the United States didn’t peak in January.....sounds a little nuts but it’s big talk in parts of the country about a “viral respiratory infection of unknown origin“ that went through between December and January across the country.

 

[tdot]

I've got to wonder if folks downplaying this are paying attention to what's happening in Italy and NY. The US seemingly had the most lax reaction to this among developed nations and now we're leading the way in case counts. It hasn't been about the body count for some time but more about completely crippling our hospitals. This article is pretty harrowing https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/26/nyregion/coronavirus-brooklyn-hospital.html

I'd imagine most folks on this site know someone well who is a doctor or nurse. Reading articles like the above and thinking that a huge percentage of them will end up with COVID certainly gives me pause. In Italy, 46 doctors (4 today) have died and 6414 total medical professionals have tested positive for COVID.

My wife just admitted a fellow Dr in to ER yesterday, and an hour later she was sent to ICU. 24 hours earlier she was 100% healthy. This woman was former army, the picture of perfect health. She has been absolutely leveled by this virus.

No one knows how or when she was infected. No one knows how many she has infected. To say the rest of the hospitals stress level has been taken to 11, would be an understatement.

 

[wind gypsy]

My wife just admitted a fellow Dr in to ER yesterday, and an hour later she was sent to ICU. 24 hours earlier she was 100% healthy. This woman was former army, the picture of perfect health. She has been absolutely leveled by this virus.

No one knows how or when she was infected. No one knows how many she has infected. To say the rest of the hospitals stress level has been taken to 11, would be an understatement.

Damnit man I’m sorry to hear that!

 

[elkduds]

By the time all this gets worked out and going it will be over I’m afraid, some of my family and friends that are in the medical field isn’t sure the United States didn’t peak in January.....sounds a little nuts but it’s big talk in parts of the country about a “viral respiratory infection of unknown origin“ that went through between December and January across the country.

I read this and recalled the respiratory infection I had, which was widespread here after New Years. While I hope it was COVID19 and I beat it, that seems doubtful. People w the crud then were far less sick, far fewer dying than now. It would be good if we have some immunity from the crud, but I'm not betting my life or the health and lives of others on it. I'd love to be wrong!

 

[MtnOyster]

I read this and recalled the respiratory infection I had, which was widespread here after New Years. While I hope it was COVID19 and I beat it, that seems doubtful. People w the crud then were far less sick, far fewer dying than now. It would be good if we have some immunity from the crud, but I'm not betting my life or the health and lives of others on it. I'd love to be wrong!

I’m with ya, but it would be nice to know it did.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

Trump had to push the defense production act today and force GM to make ventilators, I was afraid this was gonna be a mess and I can’t think of anything that worked out good when someone is forced to do anything.

By the time all this gets worked out and going it will be over I’m afraid, some of my family and friends that are in the medical field isn’t sure the United States didn’t peak in January.....sounds a little nuts but it’s big talk in parts of the country about a “viral respiratory infection of unknown origin“ that went through between December and January across the country.

I've been saying that all along. This has been here for quite some time. I've been sick, my wife, my friends, my family, Some got as bad as pneumonia. Sore throats, severe congestion, fever, chest felt like it was on fire, etc... I'm speaking for people in three different states. Which ironically are turning up fewer cases with extremely low mortality rates. My dad, his wife, and my step sister went on a cruise in December. Most of the boat got sick. When they got home, got tested for the flu. Negative. Upper respiratory infections for all. All negative for the flu, strep, etc. Just told viral infections.

I can't prove it was covid 19. This was happening before it ever appeared as a real threat to this country. Its just my opinion and belief. Which is why I felt the way I did about it. I think this thing has mutated and is hitting the hardest with a souped up strain. That's the way I feel. I've been told I was stupid for that belief. But, I'm guessing if the CDC wants antibodies, come to WV, south western VA, and NC. They'll get all they need.

 

[MtnOyster]

We’ve had several older people die from pneumonia around here this year, our local hospitals were full 2 months ago, from pneumonia, my whole family (all 4 of us) we’re deathly sick from pneumonia and a cough that lasted 5-6 weeks that our doctors didn’t know what we had and hundreds around my area had, most tested negative for flu including me and my wife.

i wouldn’t doubt it but I don’t know, I do know when the antibody tests do finally come out we are getting tested to see if we may have had a strain of it.

 

[WV Mountaineer]

Me too.

My one friends wife literally thought she was going to die. They didn't admit her because there were no beds. This was in December.

 

[JustJustin]

This is more bullshit wishful thinking. What’s going on in New York can’t be mistaken for a flu that went through the US unnoticed in January or December. Come on! Get your head out of your ass! This is world wide at this point. It did not go though the US already!


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Archery Talk is the hunting forum for you if you want to blow off.
On average, 2,000 New Yorkers die every year from flu. Coronavirus deaths are at 500 something in New York. It is possible that coronavirus (or at least some strain of it) has been around longer than we know. The death rate is a little over 1% but that rate includes ALL the people that died while infected. It does NOT include the probably very large number of untested infections. With that taken into account, the death rate is probably well below 1%. Without the media coverage, coronavirus would easily pass as a bad strain of flu. The 1918 outbreak had a death rate over 2%.

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