What are your thoughts on the Kung Flu?

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www.erinbromage.com

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from...
www.erinbromage.com www.erinbromage.com

Well done article on where and how community spread is occuring and how to go about daily business.

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Good article, from more of an epidemiological/clinical approach, as opposed to a test tube approach.

The questions it raises though for me is...would masks have made much of a difference in these outbreaks with a worker being asymptomatically infected in an office, and then causing other workers to become infected and pass on the infection themselves before they become symptomatic? Would continually running ventilation systems in these offices with Hepa filters and UV lights be more helpful like is done in some hospitals?

Also, the comments about not solving the economy without solving the biology? What is that comment based on? With the most recent antibody studies (although far from definitive) showing fatality rates from COVID in the 1 to at most 5 x's the death rate of flu , and heavily skewed toward the elderly or those not in the job market, how is that statement valid?
 
I don't think masks would have made a difference. N95 respirators yes, masks no.

Exposure load and time are the two critical factors. The exposure load is cumulative throughout the day. Since regular masks are very poor filters for particles the size of viruses you are still going to have a sizable load with no change in the time.

I also don't understand the , "they protect others from you" with masks. If they don't stop viruses from coming in how do they stop them from going out? You can look on the CDC webpage and see that they list them as ineffective protection from airborne viruses. Right along with the more moisture they contain and absorb the less effective they become, they should be changed often, they should never be re used etc etc etc.

The US health care system has been pretty steadfast in their opinion on anything other than properly fitted N95 respirators for as long as I've been around. Suddenly, because it seems like a good idea, they change their stance overnight. Won't even get into the recommendation to wear them outside in open environments.
 
Laramie said:
I had a friend in health care express frustration over accuracy of early tests. She said what they are using now seems to be a lot more accurate.

I am currently quarantined with symptoms and waiting to be tested. I have fairly mild symptoms so far. I'll give a play by play for anyone interested. Right now, sore throat, mild cough, and low fever with fatigue. Feel like I could still work right now but I'm following doctor advice.
Click to expand...

No test yet. Same symptoms with slight improvement today. I am being told that I likely won't be tested unless symptoms worsen. I'm questioning if I have it but staying home just in case. In the past, I definitely would be working normally.
 
Laramie said:
No test yet. Same symptoms with slight improvement today. I am being told that I likely won't be tested unless symptoms worsen. I'm questioning if I have it but staying home just in case. In the past, I definitely would be working normally.
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Curious, do you want it be tested? Or just doing whatever the doc orders?

Are you in an area with lots of cases?

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wattsupwiththat.com

Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought #coronavirus • Watts Up With That?

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry's Climate Etc. Posted on May 10, 2020 by niclewis By Nic Lewis Introduction A study published in March by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to have been largely responsible for driving government actions in the UK and, to a...
wattsupwiththat.com wattsupwiththat.com

This could be really good news if this data out of Sweden and subsequent modeling proves correct. Cliff’s notes version this researcher is projecting that herd immunity is actually Occurring between 7 and 24% of the population based on the case rate declining in Sweden and antibody testing.
 
jmez said:
I don't think masks would have made a difference. N95 respirators yes, masks no.

Exposure load and time are the two critical factors. The exposure load is cumulative throughout the day. Since regular masks are very poor filters for particles the size of viruses you are still going to have a sizable load with no change in the time.

I also don't understand the , "they protect others from you" with masks. If they don't stop viruses from coming in how do they stop them from going out? You can look on the CDC webpage and see that they list them as ineffective protection from airborne viruses. Right along with the more moisture they contain and absorb the less effective they become, they should be changed often, they should never be re used etc etc etc.

The US health care system has been pretty steadfast in their opinion on anything other than properly fitted N95 respirators for as long as I've been around. Suddenly, because it seems like a good idea, they change their stance overnight. Won't even get into the recommendation to wear them outside in open environments.
Click to expand...
medium.com

COVID-19: WHY WE SHOULD ALL WEAR MASKS  — THERE IS NEW SCIENTIFIC RATIONALE

The official recommendation in the United States (and other Western countries) that the public should not wear face masks was motivated by…
medium.com medium.com

Here's some decent science for wearing a mask.

My take is they are effective at reducing distance that particles travel for short exposures like passing by in the grocery store. But they wouldn't be effective in a crammed office situation with 8-10 hours of continuous exposure.



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Foldem said:
wattsupwiththat.com

Why herd immunity to COVID-19 is reached much earlier than thought #coronavirus • Watts Up With That?

Reposted from Dr. Judith Curry's Climate Etc. Posted on May 10, 2020 by niclewis By Nic Lewis Introduction A study published in March by the COVID-19 Response Team from Imperial College (Ferguson20[1]) appears to have been largely responsible for driving government actions in the UK and, to a...
wattsupwiththat.com wattsupwiththat.com

This could be really good news if this data out of Sweden and subsequent modeling proves correct. Cliff’s notes version this researcher is projecting that herd immunity is actually Occurring between 7 and 24% of the population based on the case rate declining in Sweden and antibody testing.
Click to expand...

Interesting article, but their one reference used [13] for asymptomatic carriers being only a small part of transmission appears to be a complete guess, or as they say in the reference, estimate based upon modeling.
 
durangobrad said:
Curious, do you want it be tested? Or just doing whatever the doc orders?

Are you in an area with lots of cases?

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Honestly could care less but my employer would like me tested. I'm just doing what my doctor says. If they don't call me in, he plans to send me for an antibody test later. There are a many cases here so me being positive or not won't change anyone's approach.
 
Trial153 said:
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I think the following is a more accurate analysis of the Plandemic and related issues. There is a lot of misinformation on all sides right now, but i think this presentation, although from a New York-centric perspective, addresses a lot of these issues very responsibly.

 
Okhotnik said:
Canada's politicians are using the China virus to ban hunting firearms. So it pertains

www.wsj.com

Canada Bans More Than 1,500 Types of Military-Style Firearms

Canada banned over 1,500 models of military-style assault firearms, effective immediately, a move that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau says is required to bring an end to a spate of gun violence in the country.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com
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I'd say it has more to do with the recent mass shooting?

Edit to add: it was also one of his campaign promises.

Your article link didn't work.
 
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durangobrad said:
www.erinbromage.com

The Risks - Know Them - Avoid Them

Please read this link to learn about the author and background to these posts. It seems many people are breathing some relief, and I’m not sure why. An epidemic curve has a relatively predictable upslope and once the peak is reached, the back slope can also be predicted. We have robust data from...
www.erinbromage.com www.erinbromage.com

Well done article on where and how community spread is occuring and how to go about daily business.

Sent from my F1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

A very interesting and concerning point from that article is how, when excluding New York which skews the national data because it had such a high % of the case count, cases elsewhere across the nation are on the rise and we are lifting shelter orders/opening up the economy in the face of that. Here in NorCal case counts are way down but SoCal is looking pretty bad.
 
durangobrad said:
I'd say it has more to do with the recent mass shooting?

Edit to add: it was also one of his campaign promises.

Your article link didn't work.
Click to expand...

The article mentions the company was lumped in by name as part of the gun ban due to the Nova Scotia shooting. No mention of COVID.
 
MattB said:
cases elsewhere across the nation are on the rise and we are lifting shelter orders/opening up the economy in the face of that.
Click to expand...

The goal/plan was never to limit the total number of infections, it was to slow flatten the curve so that the health care system was not overwhelmed by everyone sick at once. Flattening the curve doesn't change the amount of people under the curve..

What do you propose as an alternative? Just stay shut down forever and hope the virus goes away?
 
cornfedkiller said:
The goal/plan was never to limit the total number of infections, it was to slow flatten the curve so that the health care system was not overwhelmed by everyone sick at once. Flattening the curve doesn't change the amount of people under the curve..

What do you propose as an alternative? Just stay shut down forever and hope the virus goes away?
Click to expand...

I guess what I am saying is that relaxing things prior to actually flattening the curve doesn't allow for achieving the stated goal.

On a separate note, a friend who is pretty plugged into this whole things shared this with a group of us today which I thought was interesting:

"The only way we are going to manage this is by social distancing and test-based contact tracing. This is going to be kept under control not by asking if any one of us is infected but assuming all of us are."
 
This is what the latest public health message has morphed into. But who really knows if this will work well, when there are limits to the sensitivity/timing of the tests, and so many asymptomatic infected people?

Many areas have had very little confirmed cases compared to the area's entire population, so there will almost undoubtedly always be some new cases in a population that is relatively naive to the virus, regardless of restrictions.
 
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