The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

[WRO]

If you look at the prospectus in the IPO, there is an outline of SpaceXs total addressable market, what the company sees as its future revenue potential. 93% of the total amount of future revenue is speculated to be AI opportunities: AI Satellites, data centers in space etc.

I think he’s got a solid plan and track record of success, this will be no different


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[Poser]

I think he’s got a solid plan and track record of success, this will be no different


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Quite a bit of what is in the prospectus is science fiction. Currently and for the foreseeable future. There’s no tenable argument, nothing even close. He even put his mars BS in there as future revenue and there’s no chance that happens in the lifetime of anyone who is alive right now. Space X is a money vacuum with a valuation based off of future potential earnings.
When they project 93% of future revenue as AI, they are talking about space AI: AI satellites manufactured on the moon, data centers in space etc.

 

[WRO]

Quite a bit of what is in the prospectus is science fiction. Currently and for the foreseeable future. There’s no tenable argument, nothing even close. He even put his mars BS in there as future revenue and there’s no chance that happens in the lifetime of anyone who is alive right now. Space X is a money vacuum with a valuation based off of future potential earnings.
When they project 93% of future revenue as AI, they are talking about space AI: AI satellites manufactured on the moon, data centers in space etc.

As a guy who works a bit in the data center space, putting data centers on satellites makes a pile of sense.

Starlink is revolutionary, the technology has so much upside.

25 years ago government organizations were the only ones doing anything in space, if you would’ve asked back then if private entities were going to dominate space, I’d have been very skeptical..


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[SWFLhntr]

lol. Haters gonna hate.

 

[Poser]

lol. Haters gonna hate.

Call it what you want, the info is stated right there is in the company's IPO. Anybody can read and apparently very few are.
SpaceX pulled in $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025, but walked away with (a staggering) $4.9 billion GAAP net loss. And that burn is accelerating as they lost $4.28 billion in Q1 of 2026 alone. Read that again: q1 2026 lost almost as much as the entire year of 2025.

Obviously the IPO injects a HUGE amount of cash, but SpaceX is playing a ultra high-stakes game of financial musical chairs as they are taking the profits from Starlink and the billions now raised from public investors and pouring almost all of it into buying Nvidia GPUs and building data infrastructure.
They most likley aren't going to run out of money in the near term now that the market is now funding them. However, because they are priced at an insane valuation of nearly 100x their revenue so they have zero margin for error. The commercial AI business (the one here on earth, not space) has to pay off massively in the next 3 to 5 years to keep the lights on long enough for the "Space AI" vision to ever actually get to space. So, you're effectively hedging optimal AI outcome on what is at this moment, sci fi "space AI" outcome. Both terrestial AI and Space AI have to play out optimally or they run out of money. It is a 2 layered hedge.

What's fascinating about this is that some of the same people who are predicting an AI bubble are the same ones buying into SpaceX. An AI bubble will wreck this company. Space AI getting pushed back 5-10 years wrecks this company. So while reading this thread and seeing people state that "Elon has a record of success", you might consider that Elon has a record of over promising and under delivering on most any of his timelines. And in this case, the margin doesn't leave much of any room for that.

 

[bozeman]

So the path to trillionaire is repeated ‘over promise and under deliver’? Hmmmm……

 

[Beendare]

Quite a bit of what is in the prospectus is science fiction. Currently and for the foreseeable future. There’s no tenable argument, nothing even close.

Agreed.

 

[Fowl Play]

Agreed that the prospectus is allot of science fiction, but 7 years ago, so was all the stuff SpaceX is currently doing. Elon always doubles down, just want to point out that there is still a massive amount of revenue generating potential even if all the new sci-fi stuff fails. Between Starlink residential, Starshield, terrestrial compute leasing (not space based), Falcon launch services, misc government contracts, Starlink direct to cell, and Starlink maritime and aviation you are looking at almost $60 Billion a year currently with a real path to $140B very quickly, and that’s not even the Bullish case. Yes, the valuation is high because you have allot of people who believe that Elon’s team of excellent engineers will likely pull off at least some of the crazy stuff he’s talking about. Just want to show that the “floor” of SpaceX is not as bad as the news would make it out to be. It’s not a rug pull of an IPO that’s going to leave Index funds holding worthless stock. If they fail on the new stuff, it will devalue to maybe 80% of the IPO price in the future, but it’s not going to zero.

 

[safarihunter]

So the path to trillionaire is repeated ‘over promise and under deliver’? Hmmmm……

Full quote is important here, "Elon has a record of over promising and under delivering on most any of his timelines". Timelines being the things that are undelivered on. And that is generally quite accurate, look at the timeframe for any of the Tesla vehicle launches, none of them were even remotely close to what he promised.

 

[MountainTracker]

Well it sounds like some kind of an agreement has been met concerning Iran. I’m sure the markets will like it. Btc up $2k since this morning. Official signing of agreement will be next Friday, so I’m still skeptical but hoping for the best.


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