The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

Has he been wrong yet? He's been pretty spot on so far IMO

Wrong in what way? In his predictions? In his shape-shifting, volatile opinions? In his claims? In his consistency?

He's made multiple false claims about inflation, jobs reports, and $1,000 “Trump accounts” for babies. Examples of him being wrong are extremely easy to find. You can look most anywhere and I'm happy to pull very specific examples on most any subject mater in his domain, but here are 6 examples of Bessent being wrong including a position where he admitted he was wrong.

1. In January 2026, Bessent admitted he was wrong after reportedly telling President Trump that a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell "made a mess" and would harm financial markets. He later backtracked, stating that since stock markets rose and bond yields fell following the news, the markets actually approved of the oversight.

2. In April 2025, Bessent claimed on Meet the Press that long-term savers "don't look at the day-to-day fluctuations" of the stock market. This was widely criticized as "wildly out of touch" after a market downturn wiped out $6 trillion in assets; surveys showed over 90% of retirees were, in fact, closely monitoring the volatility.

3. During the same April 2025 interview, Bessent predicted that mortgage applications would pick up as interest rates hit their yearly low. Instead, bond market instability caused 30-year fixed mortgage rates to spike into the 7% range within the same week.

4. Bessent asserted that Trump’s tariffs on China would not harm U.S. consumers, claiming China would "eat any tariffs" to maintain their export model. Critics labeled this a "wildly inaccurate prediction," noting that economists and market reactions indicated significant risks of increased costs for American households.The most recent data confirms that American consumers absorbed most of the tariff cost. You know it, I know it, we all know it as we paid the paid the bills. Bessent attempted to gaslight us into believing something different.
Unclear whether he knew the truth and was holding the line for the administration or whether he was a true believer. Either way, he was wrong.

5. In January 2026, Bessent dismissed reports that European investors might dump U.S. Treasuries in response to Greenland-related tariffs as a "false narrative". However, reports indicated international investors had already begun selling off U.S. debt, causing significant market concern. This was a very predictable scenario. The EU holds twice as much US debt as the rest of the world combined. That's never been an issue before because they are close allies. If you suddenly flip the script without recognizing that 8 trillion dollars = leverage, then you aren't considering reality. Turns out, once again, his position was wrong.

6. Economists, including Paul Krugman, accused Bessent of "rewriting history" by claiming younger households were hit hardest by inflation caused by the Fed’s quantitative easing. Critics pointed out that significant inflation did not occur until the 2021–2022 period and was primarily driven by COVID-19 supply chain disruptions, not earlier Fed policies. I suppose you're getting into more interpretation here: was he wrong or was he lying.... does it matter?
 
Yeah, no kidding. Investing is all about getting info from Quality sources.....Krugman isn't one of them....he is a political hack. Reference him if you want to be on the wrong side of an argument.
If you want to talk about political hacks, let's dig up some skeletons out of Bessent's closet. Are you aware of his political history pre current admin 2.0? I mean, if he's "the smartest guy in the room", his intelligence must have magically increased in the last 2 years.

As regards to the subject matter, his position on the fed has been super inconsistent, even during the current admin. But, You can dismiss the last example if you prefer and I still have provided multiple examples of him being wrong and I can link video documentation of these examples, which is what the OP asked for- examples of Bessent having been wrong.
 
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