The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

Has he been wrong yet? He's been pretty spot on so far IMO

Wrong in what way? In his predictions? In his shape-shifting, volatile opinions? In his claims? In his consistency?

He's made multiple false claims about inflation, jobs reports, and $1,000 “Trump accounts” for babies. Examples of him being wrong are extremely easy to find. You can look most anywhere and I'm happy to pull very specific examples on most any subject mater in his domain, but here are 6 examples of Bessent being wrong including a position where he admitted he was wrong.

1. In January 2026, Bessent admitted he was wrong after reportedly telling President Trump that a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell "made a mess" and would harm financial markets. He later backtracked, stating that since stock markets rose and bond yields fell following the news, the markets actually approved of the oversight.

2. In April 2025, Bessent claimed on Meet the Press that long-term savers "don't look at the day-to-day fluctuations" of the stock market. This was widely criticized as "wildly out of touch" after a market downturn wiped out $6 trillion in assets; surveys showed over 90% of retirees were, in fact, closely monitoring the volatility.

3. During the same April 2025 interview, Bessent predicted that mortgage applications would pick up as interest rates hit their yearly low. Instead, bond market instability caused 30-year fixed mortgage rates to spike into the 7% range within the same week.

4. Bessent asserted that Trump’s tariffs on China would not harm U.S. consumers, claiming China would "eat any tariffs" to maintain their export model. Critics labeled this a "wildly inaccurate prediction," noting that economists and market reactions indicated significant risks of increased costs for American households.The most recent data confirms that American consumers absorbed most of the tariff cost. You know it, I know it, we all know it as we paid the paid the bills. Bessent attempted to gaslight us into believing something different.
Unclear whether he knew the truth and was holding the line for the administration or whether he was a true believer. Either way, he was wrong.

5. In January 2026, Bessent dismissed reports that European investors might dump U.S. Treasuries in response to Greenland-related tariffs as a "false narrative". However, reports indicated international investors had already begun selling off U.S. debt, causing significant market concern. This was a very predictable scenario. The EU holds twice as much US debt as the rest of the world combined. That's never been an issue before because they are close allies. If you suddenly flip the script without recognizing that 8 trillion dollars = leverage, then you aren't considering reality. Turns out, once again, his position was wrong.

6. Economists, including Paul Krugman, accused Bessent of "rewriting history" by claiming younger households were hit hardest by inflation caused by the Fed’s quantitative easing. Critics pointed out that significant inflation did not occur until the 2021–2022 period and was primarily driven by COVID-19 supply chain disruptions, not earlier Fed policies. I suppose you're getting into more interpretation here: was he wrong or was he lying.... does it matter?
 
Yeah, no kidding. Investing is all about getting info from Quality sources.....Krugman isn't one of them....he is a political hack. Reference him if you want to be on the wrong side of an argument.
If you want to talk about political hacks, let's dig up some skeletons out of Bessent's closet. Are you aware of his political history pre current admin 2.0? I mean, if he's "the smartest guy in the room", his intelligence must have magically increased in the last 2 years.

As regards to the subject matter, his position on the fed has been super inconsistent, even during the current admin. But, You can dismiss the last example if you prefer and I still have provided multiple examples of him being wrong and I can link video documentation of these examples, which is what the OP asked for- examples of Bessent having been wrong.
 
Yeah, I've said that previously in this thread. Just trying to keep this thread on track, as it's made most of us some money. Arguing over politics de-rails and divides us.
That's fair, folks need to just try to keep it as neutral as possible. Talking about repercussions of decisions good or bad is helpful navigating the blur of news.
 
Yeah, I've said that previously in this thread. Just trying to keep this thread on track, as it's made most of us some money. Arguing over politics de-rails and divides us.
This was a TRADER’S thread…and a pretty good one. It went off the rails a while back. Now it’s…how much should I contribute to my 401k? and politics, with little actionable trading information exchanged.
 
Stop Loss saved me today with INTC, sale triggered at $49.34 and bought back in at $45.76...lost a little bit and then bought back in at a lower price.
 
Sweden’s largest private pension fund has divested up to $8.8 billion in US Treasuries, marking the most significant withdrawal yet from American government bonds since President Donald Trump’s Greenland crisis erupted.
Non event

But what is happening with Japanese bonds (to be shortly followed by UK and French bonds) is a very big deal indeed
 
Stop Loss saved me today with INTC, sale triggered at $49.34 and bought back in at $45.76...lost a little bit and then bought back in at a lower price.
Are you saying you lost money on the stop loss INTC sale?

Not trying to be that guy, but I did not think you could sell a stock at a loss and buy it back immediately. The wait period is 30 days, or it was, but maybe it was changed since the 1980's.

Yes, I'm living in the past and I'm good with that. :ROFLMAO:



Eddie
 
yes i lost money and still losing a bit more but i figure it is a reputable company for the long term, so i bought back lower. Fidelity let me and i didn't see any warning to prevent me from doing it.
 
Are you saying you lost money on the stop loss INTC sale?

Not trying to be that guy, but I did not think you could sell a stock at a loss and buy it back immediately. The wait period is 30 days, or it was, but maybe it was changed since the 1980's.

Yes, I'm living in the past and I'm good with that. :ROFLMAO:



Eddie
Are you thinking of the "wash sale rule"? If so doesn't apply in this case. He may have to watch out for violating day trade rules but doesn't appear to have done that.


 
Are you thinking of the "wash sale rule"? If so doesn't apply in this case. He may have to watch out for violating day trade rules but doesn't appear to have done that.


Yes, that's it. I was forgetting that the rule only applies if you want to take the loss as a deduction.

Thanks for the schooling @BBob (y)


Eddie
 
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