The Rokslide Stock Traders Thread

If I could figure out a decent...by which I mean intelligent and clear about the way to manage risk that leaves aside all the emotional and political BS that I see everywhere (including in this thread)...day trading approach, I would look into it. Until then, I will for the most part keep ahold of my measly ducets.
 
KnCaffre said:
If I could figure out a decent...by which I mean intelligent and clear about the way to manage risk that leaves aside all the emotional and political BS that I see everywhere (including in this thread)...day trading approach, I would look into it. Until then, I will for the most part keep ahold of my measly ducets.
Click to expand...
60/40 or 70/30 portfolio is what you want to look into
 
I’m almost 100% in MM fund. Been watching the market frustrate everyone for the last few months, and it’s still frustrating to me too, but I’m just sitting on the sidelines making about 5%. It seems like the market simply has to crash soon. It’s hard to believe it hasn’t already, but it would have back in the spring with the first round of bank crashes if the Fed hadn’t restarted QE and pumped like $400B back into their balance sheet with the click of a button.

It’s a rigged game. There are ways to make money playing a rigged game, but it’s not easy for the average retail traders, and it seems to only heavily favor the insiders. (See the “bad news” job print that the market was fearing yesterday that should have caused a negative reaction but instead caused a technical short squeeze and a huge day for the indexes.)
 
KnCaffre said:
If I could figure out a decent...by which I mean intelligent and clear about the way to manage risk that leaves aside all the emotional and political BS that I see everywhere (including in this thread)...day trading approach, I would look into it. Until then, I will for the most part keep ahold of my measly ducets.
Click to expand...
Find a trade with an edge and use an automated service to place and exit trades for you based on signals that you determine in advance. That's the future and it's available now. I have my trades programmed in and they just execute every day. I come back after the bell and transfer everything to a spreadsheet and see what happened. I don't care mid day.
 
Marshfly said:
Find a trade with an edge and use an automated service to place and exit trades for you based on signals that you determine in advance. That's the future and it's available now. I have my trades programmed in and they just execute every day. I come back after the bell and transfer everything to a spreadsheet and see what happened. I don't care mid day.
Click to expand...

You do well enough to off set short term capital gains?

The day traders of my day never had a life and the gains never really off set the loses.


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Kilboars said:
You do well enough to off set short term capital gains?

The day traders of my day never had a life and the gains never really off set the loses.


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Click to expand...
Short term capital gains is simply normal income tax.
But yes. If you make money you pay tax on that, just like working or owning a business. What you are saying is that they simply weren't making money. That had nothing to do with taxes. If the IRS 3k annual loss limit is a hindrance (and it will be for most successful traders) you elect trader tax status with the IRS and/or trade under an LLC to get around that.

That said I only trade 1256 contracts and those are taxed 60% long term and 40% regular income. Also there is no wash sale rule to worry about with Indexes and Futures.

About not having a life, if you attempt to trade all day, you will ultimately lose and not have a life like you say. The most successful traders have one or two particular setups that either set up at the open or towards the close or they swing trade multi day or multi week setups. Sitting at the computer all day waiting for an opportunity is not what most successful traders do. And like I said, 100% of my trades are automated. I could go hunting for a week and things would still work. In fact, I'll be hunting Thursday and Friday for Montana youth weekend with my son just like I was scouting with him Wed-Friday for the antelope opener. Didn't look at the computer all day and the trades got placed and I won't look most of this week due to prepping for this weeks hunt.
 
Gotcha.

I’m going back 1999. These are very smart guys, but they lived by their little beepers and constantly looking at their trades. Again, very smart guys in my opinion but they lost their shirt in 2000.


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Kilboars said:
Gotcha.

I’m going back 1999. These are very smart guys, but they lived by their little beepers and constantly looking at their trades. Again, very smart guys in my opinion but they lost their shirt in 2000.


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Click to expand...
Oh I get it. Smart doesn't mean anything when it comes to trading unfortunately. Finding trades that match your internal view of the market and training your monkey brain to not do things to mess you up is how you succeed. Emotional training and mastery is how you win. The actual trading part is pretty basic really.
 
I know there are a few crypto folks in here. I found it very interesting how btc jumped almost 10% in a matter of minutes from the post about Blackrock’s BTC ETF being approved by the SEC. That post turned out to be unfounded or at least a little early. There appears to be a lot of money ready to jump in when the ETF approval happens.


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Marshfly said:
Oh I get it. Smart doesn't mean anything when it comes to trading unfortunately. Finding trades that match your internal view of the market and training your monkey brain to not do things to mess you up is how you succeed. Emotional training and mastery is how you win. The actual trading part is pretty basic really.
Click to expand...

My monkey brain just bought big companies I knew of and crossed my fingers. Then went back to making more money by the hour.

I’ve held long and had a few home runs and invested in some real estate which helped a lot but also living below my means.


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Marshfly said:
Short term capital gains is simply normal income tax.
But yes. If you make money you pay tax on that, just like working or owning a business. What you are saying is that they simply weren't making money. That had nothing to do with taxes. If the IRS 3k annual loss limit is a hindrance (and it will be for most successful traders) you elect trader tax status with the IRS and/or trade under an LLC to get around that.

That said I only trade 1256 contracts and those are taxed 60% long term and 40% regular income. Also there is no wash sale rule to worry about with Indexes and Futures.

About not having a life, if you attempt to trade all day, you will ultimately lose and not have a life like you say. The most successful traders have one or two particular setups that either set up at the open or towards the close or they swing trade multi day or multi week setups. Sitting at the computer all day waiting for an opportunity is not what most successful traders do. And like I said, 100% of my trades are automated. I could go hunting for a week and things would still work. In fact, I'll be hunting Thursday and Friday for Montana youth weekend with my son just like I was scouting with him Wed-Friday for the antelope opener. Didn't look at the computer all day and the trades got placed and I won't look most of this week due to prepping for this weeks hunt.
Click to expand...
Honest question, but how did you go about learning this? Talking tax codes, strategies, etc. any good ways to self teach this stuff? This has always intrigued me, but have not dedicated allot of effort to it yet.

I have a decent amount in the market. But have just gone the buy quality and hold forever route. Wouldn’t even consider doing what you guys do until I had a solid understanding of it.
 
Fowl Play said:
Honest question, but how did you go about learning this? Talking tax codes, strategies, etc. any good ways to self teach this stuff? This has always intrigued me, but have not dedicated allot of effort to it yet.

I have a decent amount in the market. But have just gone the buy quality and hold forever route. Wouldn’t even consider doing what you guys do until I had a solid understanding of it.
Click to expand...

"have not dedicated a lot of effort into it yet."
That's the kicker. A physician goes to school for more than half a decade to learn how to make a few hundred thousand dollars a year. People expect to make money trading in the market in their spare time. That's just not the case. It takes hundreds and thousands of hours to be consistently profitable.

First. Start small. A few k and expect to lose it. Just like the casino. Your first goal is to be consistently profitable. A few bucks at a time. Like 10 or 20.

Second.Learn to lose. Seriously learn to lose well. The most profitable traders lose often but lose small. School and life has taught you that losing or averaging 60% is failure. That's absolute trash. Most of my strategies have a 50% win rate but they win more than they lose so over time I make money. 50% is failing in school. That mentality is crippling in trading.

Third. Spend time learning how your mind works and how to deal with your monkey brain emotions. I will say this again. Learning to trade is easy. Finding profitable trades is easy. Learning to manage your emotional monkey caveman brain is the hardest thing you will ever do in your entire life. It does not matter what trading style someone else has that they are successful at. Your brain and emotions are different. You have to find trades that fit YOU.

Fourth. Grow slowly. Your goal is consistent profitability over time. Not making a living RIGHT NOW! Grow size slowly. Your emotions can't handle big jumps in losses and wins no matter how much you make at your job or business. NOBODY is immune to this. NOBODY. Let that account compound. Once the annual profits from trading beat your regular income then you have some decisions to make.

Lastly, once you are profitable have real trading expectations out of yourself. This is not investing. 1% a month is terrible frankly. You need to be shooting for 5-10% in monthly average growth in your trading account. That's doable and achievable. This is a business. No one bats an eye at 5% return on capital a month for a new, small business. Same thing.

Great Youtube accounts for the mental game are Micheal Martin and Rande Howell. Everyone wants to find good trades and then wonders why they can't make money long term. The people that win figure out their trading emotions and conquer that. You can not win without figuring that out so start at the beginning.

Great books are the Market Wizards series and Best Loser Wins. Don't buy books on tactics and strategies. That stuff is free online. Backtesting software is well, well worth the price. Find some and use the crap out of it.
 
Marshfly said:
"have not dedicated a lot of effort into it yet."
That's the kicker. A physician goes to school for more than half a decade to learn how to make a few hundred thousand dollars a year. People expect to make money trading in the market in their spare time. That's just not the case. It takes hundreds and thousands of hours to be consistently profitable.

First. Start small. A few k and expect to lose it. Just like the casino. Your first goal is to be consistently profitable. A few bucks at a time. Like 10 or 20.

Second.Learn to lose. Seriously learn to lose well. The most profitable traders lose often but lose small. School and life has taught you that losing or averaging 60% is failure. That's absolute trash. Most of my strategies have a 50% win rate but they win more than they lose so over time I make money. 50% is failing in school. That mentality is crippling in trading.

Third. Spend time learning how your mind works and how to deal with your monkey brain emotions. I will say this again. Learning to trade is easy. Finding profitable trades is easy. Learning to manage your emotional monkey caveman brain is the hardest thing you will ever do in your entire life. It does not matter what trading style someone else has that they are successful at. Your brain and emotions are different. You have to find trades that fit YOU.

Fourth. Grow slowly. Your goal is consistent profitability over time. Not making a living RIGHT NOW! Grow size slowly. Your emotions can't handle big jumps in losses and wins no matter how much you make at your job or business. NOBODY is immune to this. NOBODY. Let that account compound. Once the annual profits from trading beat your regular income then you have some decisions to make.

Lastly, once you are profitable have real trading expectations out of yourself. This is not investing. 1% a month is terrible frankly. You need to be shooting for 5-10% in monthly average growth in your trading account. That's doable and achievable. This is a business. No one bats an eye at 5% return on capital a month for a new, small business. Same thing.

Great Youtube accounts for the mental game are Micheal Martin and Rande Howell. Everyone wants to find good trades and then wonders why they can't make money long term. The people that win figure out their trading emotions and conquer that. You can not win without figuring that out so start at the beginning.

Great books are the Market Wizards series and Best Loser Wins. Don't buy books on tactics and strategies. That stuff is free online. Backtesting software is well, well worth the price. Find some and use the crap out of it.
Click to expand...

Thanks for taking the time to share this knowledge.


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MountainTracker said:
Thanks for taking the time to share this knowledge.


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Click to expand...
No problem. I've made a ton of mistakes along my journey but figuring out what it took to be consistently profitable was totally different than what I thought it would be. If I can point people in the right direction from the start (mental game) I guess that makes my losses along the way worth it some how. LOL/
 
Marshfly said:
Second.Learn to lose. Seriously learn to lose well. The most profitable traders lose often but lose small. School and life has taught you that losing or averaging 60% is failure. That's absolute trash. Most of my strategies have a 50% win rate but they win more than they lose so over time I make money. 50% is failing in school. That mentality is crippling in trading.
Click to expand...
Thanks for sharing. I guess I do not fully understand this. How can you be consistently profitable with a 50% win rate?
 
Fowl Play said:
Thanks for sharing. I guess I do not fully understand this. How can you be consistently profitable with a 50% win rate?
Click to expand...
Say your average winner is $100 a contract but your average loser is only $50 a contract. That makes for an average of $25 profit per contract. 5 winners at $100=$500 minus 5 losers at $50=$250. Together you made $250 for the 10 trades or $25 expectancy per trade.

Or even 25% win rate but your winners are 5x the loser. Lose 3 at $100 but then win 1 at $500 for a $200 net or $50 per trade expectancy. Both of those are absolutely possible trading scenarios.
 
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