Sheep Success rates???

[JP100]

As the Northern Season is well under well/finished for alot of people I was wonder what people think is 'acceptable' success for outfits doing sheep??

I have only worked at one outfit that did sheep(Stones) and they run 100% when I was there, and I though that was fairly 'normal', considering the price tag and pressure on finding a good sheep. Finding legal sheep was tough for the hunt I was on, but we had lots of time and multiple people on the ground and started before the season scouting etc.

My brother is working in BC right now, and the outfit he is with has just finished their Stones hunt with 25% success, which makes for a very expensive camping trip for most the hunters.

Obviously there is ALOT of factors involved with sheep hunting, and nothing is ever going to be 100 success all the time, and many of us enjoy the adventure/challenge to a hunt with the trigger pull just as a bonus.

But with the growing prices of sheep hunts, maybe some outfits are being a bit optimistic over what their areas can produce??
Maybe there was a number of unexpected problems that season(weather,guides,sheep herd issues etc)

Im not trying to bag out some outfits, maybe I am way out of whack, but if I was dropping 40-50k on a hunt I would hope to have at least a 50% chance on an animal.

For those other guides/outfitters or clients that have done a few of these hunts, what do you think is 'normal' success??(I know there is about 40 million variables)

 

[Yellowknife]

As the Northern Season is well under well/finished for alot of people I was wonder what people think is 'acceptable' success for outfits doing sheep??

For those other guides/outfitters or clients that have done a few of these hunts, what do you think is 'normal' success??(I know there is about 40 million variables)

Non-res success rates statewide in Alaska run 60-67% typically per F&G. A percentage of those are "next of kin", so guided success rate can be safely assumed to be a bit higher. Resident success runs 20-25% most years.

The top operations I'm personally aware of will run 80-90% over a multi-year average.

 

[kscowboy01]

JP100, that is a very poor success rate. I would not book a Stone with someone who had that kind of year. Granted, there are variables that dictate the success of a hunt, mainly weather, but that is a pretty low rate of success. Would you PM me the name, please? That's my next sheep and I have a list of outfitters I am considering. Thanks!

 

[BRWNBR]

Sheep success rates are touchy. I remember back around 2000, I had seen over 50 rams the fall before in one week. I was jacked for the next season. Next season I saw three total sheep. A banana horn and a ewe and lamb. That was it. Holy let down. One bad winter set the whole program right back on its heels. Another season I had we never saw the top half of a mountain! I’ve had several clients quit and go home early. Or guys that stuck It out but couldn’t get to the Sheep.
Overall I would say that of the guys who are in shape and have decent weather, huntable weather I say we are 70%. That may be low, but it’s safe. There’s only been a couple hunts I can recal that we just flat out couldn’t find a legal
Ram.

 

[VernAK]

BRWNBR gives a very realistic estimate.

Weather is often a determining factor in Alaska.

 

[jack88]

Lots of variable that some outfitters use and some don't. Weather being the #1 uncontrollable for all parties involved. I've seen clients of outfitters who would take 3/4 of a day to get up the mountain to actually get to the sheep and those sheep could have fed to the next side of the mountain by that point.

I always ask an outfitter what their % of getting reasonably in shape guys into position for a shot at a legal ram. This means bullet in the chamber and within a reasonable range. Outfitters can't control missed shots and sheep fever.

 

[BRWNBR]

The beauty of Sheep fever is most sheep are stupid. Once you’ve beat a Sheeps eyes they are unimpressive. I’ve never had a sheep run off after a miss. Even poorly hit Sheep basicly give up most times. Stick with it and calm Down on that second shot, most times where I am you seem to get second chances.

 

[justin davis]

The beauty of Sheep fever is most sheep are stupid. Once you’ve beat a Sheeps eyes they are unimpressive. I’ve never had a sheep run off after a miss. Even poorly hit Sheep basicly give up most times. Stick with it and calm Down on that second shot, most times where I am you seem to get second chances.

I’d like to hunt those sheep. The sheep I’m hunting are more skidding and spooky than coues deer I’ve hunted. Very hard to get close too with their eyes and noses.

 

[Kotaman]

The beauty of Sheep fever is most sheep are stupid. Once you’ve beat a Sheeps eyes they are unimpressive. I’ve never had a sheep run off after a miss. Even poorly hit Sheep basicly give up most times. Stick with it and calm Down on that second shot, most times where I am you seem to get second chances.

Two examples that mess with your theory: 1. I once missed a huge, double broomed dall in AK at 458 yards. That ram ran to the Yukon with no second chance. 2. I hit a Bighorn in BC a little too far back. After trailing him for quite some time he ended up in some cliffs that we could not go into. Unrecovered...I've been on 10 Sheep/goat hunts, the rest ended well. So, pretty much 100% of the shots that weren't spot on, didn't end well.


With regard to success rates...I'm more interested in "opportunity rate". Too many variables for "success". The Stone outfit I hunted with this year was 12 for 15 last year. One guy quit, one guy missed and one guy passed up several legal rams looking for a Booner. Another thing that messes with "success rates" are the number of archers the outfit takes.

 

[BRWNBR]

The beauty of Sheep fever is MOST sheep are stupid. Once you’ve beat a Sheeps eyes they are unimpressive. I’VE never had a sheep run off after a miss. Even poorly hit Sheep BASICALLY give up MOST TIMES. Stick with it and calm Down on that second shot, MOST times WHERE I AM you SEEM to get second chances.

I’ve capitalized the generalizations to help keep folks from confusing my experiences with fact.
I don’t know how many sheep and goat hunts I’ve been. Only lost animal was goats. One was archery wounded twice and walked off where we couldn’t go. Other was shot and fell in a unrecoverable location. Never lost a wounded sheep and never only had one shot at a ram. One ram was the biggest I’d ever seen, guy missed him 11 times. Another we finally got on the something teenth shot in a second location. Been a couple others the guys have shot and adjusted then dropped them.

 

[Kotaman]

I agree with your "generalizations" Brwnbr. However, there are always exceptions and I think I happen to have two of those exceptions.

 

[Matt W.]

The beauty of Sheep fever is most sheep are stupid. Once you’ve beat a Sheeps eyes they are unimpressive. I’ve never had a sheep run off after a miss. Even poorly hit Sheep basicly give up most times. Stick with it and calm Down on that second shot, most times where I am you seem to get second chances.

In your experience would this vary by sheep type and location? i.e Dall Sheep in AK vs Dall Sheep in the Yukon, or Dall Sheep vs. Stone vs. Big Horn vs. Desert?
Just curious

 

[BRWNBR]

This is only from my experience on dall sheep in the drainages I work in Alaska over 20 years. .
I don’t think there are exceptions to generalizations. Lol

 

[Kotaman]

“Generalizations are guidelines which help us get through the most general of cases. But there are always exceptions. That's because generalizations without any exceptions have a name, they are called Rules.”

In your AK sheep hunting experience, what would you say your “opportunity rate” was/is vs. the 70% “success rate”?

 

[BRWNBR]

But with out the exceptions of generalization exceptions we have the guidelines based off exceptions and the generalized guidelines based off rules And there guidelines.
I’m about 70%. There have been very few missed opportunities.

 

[Kotaman]

You mean “their” guidelines? Or “they’re guidelines?

So your “opportunity rate” and “success rate” are the same?

 

[BRWNBR]

There guidelines!! Lol
Ya I’d say it’s about the same. I don’t have all the numbers from the last decade or more in front of me. I’m going off memory.

 

[Kotaman]

There guidelines!! Lol
Ya I’d say it’s about the same. I don’t have all the numbers from the last decade or more in front of me. I’m going off memory.

In all of your years, did you have many hunters quit before the hunt was over? (In my limited experience, I’ve seen three guys quit.) Did you have many guys miss once and go home without? And lastly, what do you think the archery success was vs. the firearm success rate?

 

[Kotaman]

And before you answer, let me tell you where I'm going with this: I've done 10 sheep/goat hunts. I've killed 7 for 70%. However my opportunity rate has been 90%. (I missed once, and wounded once). My lone non opportunity hunt was a 17 day Stone Sheep hunt to the Yukon that yielded ONE sheep sighting. These hunts span Ak, BC, Mexico and the Yukon. It appears as though my limited experience matches fairly close with your 20+ years of experience. Thanks in advance for your input...

 

[BRWNBR]

In all of your years, did you have many hunters quit before the hunt was over? (In my limited experience, I’ve seen three guys quit.) Did you have many guys miss once and go home without? And lastly, what do you think the archery success was vs. the firearm success rate?

Never had a bow hunter for Sheep. Had a guy miss 11
Times at one ram then go home. Maybe five guys quit because of not being in shape, weather was frustrating, etc.