Received the Vaccine today...

[Dos Perros]

Excellent, do you have the capacity to analyze the raw data involved in the vaccine clinical trials? Do you have that level of education, training, or experience?

I'm a degreed engineer and I have a master's degree. I evaluate statistical models and their inputs fairly frequently (for a living), mostly to inform intelligent risk taking but for some other reasons too.

I'm definitely not going to pour through the raw data (is it even available?), but I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that:

1: the probability of contracting is low
1a: to my knowledge, I and my family haven't gotten it yet
1b: I and we don't plan on changing behavior, so there is a good chance we could avoid it before herd immunity is reached through infections and vaccinations
1c: rates of infection locally are dramatically lower than summer highs anyway (less than 10% of summer highs)

2: the impact of contracting is likely low, or even nil
2a: my family is young and healthy, no known comorbidities
2b: our extended family and friends are all healthy
2c: our extended family and friends can make the decision for themselves if they'd like to be vaccinated
2d: our extended family and friends can make the decision for themselves if they'd like to continue to see us

Based on 1 and 2, low impact, low probability, a risk mitigation strategy of "accept" seems most appropriate.

But, going on....

3: the long term risks of receiving the vaccine is unknown (duh)

4: we all plan on living a long time, so the impact of any long terms risks being realized would be greater for us than the general population

5: the near term risk of the vaccine may be higher for me and my kids
5a: I myself have had some fairly severe reactions to both medicines and foods
5b: my kids share my genetics, so they could be more likely to have a severe reaction as well

Add in to that, I put elk meat on my back and walk in the dark in the highest density grizzly bear areas in the lower 48. So, I clearly have a history of questionable decisions and risk tolerance.

Really, I hope the above demonstrates I've considered the issue with genuine thoughtfulness. I didn't have a conclusion in mind ahead of time; I thought about it and came to a decision for myself and my family. I'll admit we don't know everything. When it comes to uncertain outcomes, even making the right decision can end poorly, and the opposite is true as well.

 

[WCB]

Aren't there literally thousands of things that you do, mostly unknowingly, because some expert somewhere decided that's how it should be?

Do you personally oversee sanitization standards in the hospital where you child was born? Do you independently develop guidelines for vehicle tires, brakes, or any other component of automobile safety standards? Have you personally written codes for the electric wiring that runs through your house? Of course you didn't. There are nearly endless examples where you relied upon people who are actual experts in those various fields do determine what you should do.

All of this "I know best" is a facade. We rely on experts every day.

"I do my own research" is always good for a laugh. Most people who claim this couldn't recognize a basic statistical model if it bit them in the ass.

When new tire material not used before, hasn't passed any approved standards, and was developed in a couple months and is released for emergency purposes hits the market...you can bet your ass I won't be putting them on my truck. Same reason I don't buy first gen anything.

So my pregnant wife should test it out because guess what the experts have no data either way on use on pregnant women. Little to none on young children and really zero data on long term issues. I'll error on living a healthy life.

Do you think it is right that one of the Nurse Practitioners my wife saw during here current pregnancy tried to pressure her into getting the vaccine even after my wife asked her to provide studies showing that the vaccines don't have negative effects on pregnancy or the child? Her response was "there is no data showing any negative effects". Yeah no data at all showing either way. So my wife should have followed the suggestion of the "expert" because she said so?

I have no problem if you want to get the vaccine or not. No problem if you question anything or not.

 

[fwafwow]

Kudos to all who have chimed in recently in that while there is disagreement, the back and forth still remains pretty civil.

If anyone is taking or has taken medication, there is a chance that you have put yourself at risk without long-term studies, and/or that the benefits of the medication have been overstated and the risks understated. (Benefits of drugs are almost always described in relative risk percentages, while the risks are almost always described in absolute risk percentages.) That doesn't mean one should take the vaccine, I'm just saying that if folks are concerned about the unknown long-term impact of any one of the vaccines, then they should probably be concerned about other medicines (or treatments). And fwiw, I'm concerned with all medications for these reasons.

 

[Beendare]

FWIW,
I got my first dose of the Moderna vaccine yesterday. The level of ‘scared to get the shot” was crazy As its essentially a flu shot.

Why is that^ ?

It seems to me its because of politics and media hype.

Kaiser has given out tens of thousands of doses with a tiny fraction of a fraction of reactions.

Any medical Procedure involves a risk. Getting the vaccine the risk is so small it’s not even worth talking about.

—

 

[307]

When new tire material not used before, hasn't passed any approved standards, and was developed in a couple months and is released for emergency purposes hits the market...you can bet your ass I won't be putting them on my truck. Same reason I don't buy first gen anything.

So my pregnant wife should test it out because guess what the experts have no data either way on use on pregnant women. Little to none on young children and really zero data on long term issues. I'll error on living a healthy life.

Do you think it is right that one of the Nurse Practitioners my wife saw during here current pregnancy tried to pressure her into getting the vaccine even after my wife asked her to provide studies showing that the vaccines don't have negative effects on pregnancy or the child? Her response was "there is no data showing any negative effects". Yeah no data at all showing either way. So my wife should have followed the suggestion of the "expert" because she said so?

I have no problem if you want to get the vaccine or not. No problem if you question anything or not.

We lack long term data on the vaccine, that's true. We also lack long term data on the virus. The virus is doing significant harm to people, not just those who die. I don't want to risk living with permanent respiratory, cardiac, or neurologic damage. There is a real risk of those known consequences with the virus, and based on what is known at this point, far less risk from the vaccine. We make decisions on best available evidence, and hopefully don't put too much weight into anecdote.

The body of evidence used to grant EUA is significant. The data overwhelmingly supports it's efficacy and safety. Pfizer (for one) is applying for full authorization in April.


FYI:

"Now, more than a year into the pandemic, research from groups around the world has shown that pregnant women with COVID-19 are at higher risk of hospitalization and severe disease than are women of the same age who are not pregnant."

 

[Dos Perros]

Getting the vaccine the risk is so small it’s not even worth talking about.

Same with getting COVID.

 

[Dos Perros]

There is a real risk of those known consequences with the virus, and based on what is known at this point, far less risk from the vaccine.

The data to support that point of view, minus your qualifier, doesn't exist.

 

[307]

The data to support that point of view, minus your qualifier, doesn't exist.

I disagree with your statement. The NIH seems to agree with my point of view and they're fairly well positioned to understand what's going on.

NIH launches new initiative to study “Long COVID”

I write to announce a major new NIH initiative to identify the causes and ultimately the means of prevention and treatment of individuals who have been sickened by COVID-19, but don’t recover fully over a period of a few weeks.

www.nih.gov

 

[Dos Perros]

I disagree with your statement.

NIH launches new initiative to study “Long COVID”

I write to announce a major new NIH initiative to identify the causes and ultimately the means of prevention and treatment of individuals who have been sickened by COVID-19, but don’t recover fully over a period of a few weeks.

www.nih.gov

Disagree all you want. You're wrong. The long term impacts of the vaccine are unknown.

 

[Marbles]

The data to support that point of view, minus your qualifier, doesn't exist.

No, the data definitively exists and without any qualifiers. The first vaccines were injected into humans in March of 2020. So, the disease only has a few months more long term data. The disease causes a host of problems that we know have long lasting effects from dealing with them before COVID. So far the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines cause very few problems and the major one is very aminable to treatment and rarely has lasting effects if treated.

Provide one scientifically sound reason why we should expect a drastic change that reverses that relationship?

 

[Throwin Darts]

Some of the replies to this thread are quite shocking to me. They probably shouldn't be considering the overwhelming stench of narcissistic behavior that has become mainstream in the US these days. That one's views should not just be tolerated by their fellow man, but shared and celebrated. Gone are the days of live and let live. To tell or imply to someone that it is their responsibility to their fellow man to put something in their body requires an almost unbelievable amount of arrogance. If each person did what was best for their family and did not rely on the government to "keep them safe" we would be in much better shape that we currently sit. Almost every single storefront has some sign that says "in order to keep our customers safe.....", I don't need a store to keep me and mine safe and I certainly don't need Uncle Sam or Random Joe telling me what I should or should not be doing with my body. If you and your family want to take the vaccine then go for it. Its none of my business, just like its none of anyone's business if my family and I don't.

 

[fwafwow]

I disagree with your statement. The NIH seems to agree with my point of view and they're fairly well positioned to understand what's going on.

NIH launches new initiative to study “Long COVID”

I write to announce a major new NIH initiative to identify the causes and ultimately the means of prevention and treatment of individuals who have been sickened by COVID-19, but don’t recover fully over a period of a few weeks.

www.nih.gov

I agree that there are post-survival complications from Covid (I have, or had one, but I have no clue of the implications), but this study of “Long Covid” seems broader, and based on this opinion, maybe not just what is being debated in this thread:

Opinion | The Dubious Origins of Long Covid

Echoes of chronic fatigue in the effort to blame the coronavirus for a host of questionable symptoms.

www.wsj.com

 

[NDGuy]

Same with getting COVID.

Millions of people have died and there are a lot of people struggling with post-covid. I know people personally in ND that are in their 30s and 40s struggling with lung capacity, heart issues, and still can't smell/taste. A nurse that got it at our local hospital has to wear a heart monitor now after being intubated. She's 36.

Seems the clear and present danger is COVID, the long term effects of both is unknown but pretending COVID is harmless after getting it and recovering is just a completely ignorant take at this point. Cmon man.

If you are low risk and in a low travel density location sure thing don't get a vaccine. You probably will be fine.

But this continued talk of covid being a non-issue is silly.

There are dangers and risks to both, we all have to make the decision.

 

[307]

Disagree all you want. You're wrong. The long term impacts of the vaccine are unknown.

I acknowledged that the long term impacts of the vaccine are unknown, at this point, it's kind of dumb comment to have to continue to make.

The long term effects of the virus are also unknown, though the emerging evidence suggests that "didn't die" doesn't mean that covid won't have long term, maybe permanent effects for the infected individual.

Hopefully we can agree on the above points, as they're really not debatable.

What is known, at this point, in my opinion, strongly favors the vaccine over the virus. We have to make decisions based on the best evidence available at the time.

In 10 years, the answer may be obvious, but we do not currently have the luxury of the retrospect-o-scope.

 

[WCB]

We lack long term data on the vaccine, that's true. We also lack long term data on the virus. The virus is doing significant harm to people, not just those who die. I don't want to risk living with permanent respiratory, cardiac, or neurologic damage. There is a real risk of those known consequences with the virus, and based on what is known at this point, far less risk from the vaccine. We make decisions on best available evidence, and hopefully don't put too much weight into anecdote.

The body of evidence used to grant EUA is significant. The data overwhelmingly supports it's efficacy and safety. Pfizer (for one) is applying for full authorization in April.


FYI:

"Now, more than a year into the pandemic, research from groups around the world has shown that pregnant women with COVID-19 are at higher risk of hospitalization and severe disease than are women of the same age who are not pregnant."

So lacking long term data I and my family have made the choice not to get the vaccines as of right now. From our point of view the low chance of getting seriously ill from it with long term issues and an even again lower chance of death from it we choose not to inject ourselves with anything right now.

I agree on not putting too much on anecdotes. But, I know dozens of people that have had the virus with so far zero lasting issues (some had it very early) and none with anything more than a week or so of minor flu like sickness. Along with I believe 4 of them being pregnant with not much more than slight fever and loss of taste and smell. We made our personal choice. We lead a very healthy life and my wife, the same with her first pregnancy, remains very healthy with no concerning factors. We have looked into the pros and cons with the evidence on Covid and pregnancy and have to draw the line and risk mitigation somewhere. For us it is the same with any activity we do...is 1% or 5% chance of something happening worth trading off for the unknown? maybe, maybe not.

Just saying that pregnant women are more likely to get severely ill doesn't automatically make the vaccine the best choice for an individual. Pregnancy has a bunch of risks and health concerns outside of Covid...when mixed with Covid may cause this. We discussed this with my wife's doctor and she agrees that if my wife was higher risk before pregnancy or was having other health concerns due to pregnancy a vaccine my be a better option.

Again...you want to get the Vaccine fine. Is Covid a serious thing that people have died from and some have lasting issues with yes. Not denying that. IMO, the side of "Covid is fake and zero issue is wrong". Just as wrong is the side of "shut everything down and everyone stick the first thing in their arm the government tells you to". in time MY families decision may change on the vaccine (might of already had it and have natural immunity) but right now...nope.

 

[NDGuy]

So lacking long term data I and my family have made the choice not to get the vaccines as of right now. From our point of view the low chance of getting seriously ill from it with long term issues and an even again lower chance of death from it we choose not to inject ourselves with anything right now.

Like I said to Perros if you are in a low risk area and not in a high exposure job. I understand, and I respect everyone's choice. Let's hope none of us have to live with regret for one decision or the other!

I wish for no long term vaccine effects and COVID to be a distant memory years from now!

 

[Dos Perros]

Millions of people have died and there are a lot of people struggling with post-covid. I know people personally in ND that are in their 30s and 40s struggling with lung capacity, heart issues, and still can't smell/taste. A nurse that got it at our local hospital has to wear a heart monitor now after being intubated. She's 36.

Seems the clear and present danger is COVID, the long term effects of both is unknown but pretending COVID is harmless after getting it and recovering is just a completely ignorant take at this point. Cmon man.

If you are low risk and in a low travel density location sure thing don't get a vaccine. You probably will be fine.

But this continued talk of covid being a non-issue is silly.

There are dangers and risks to both, we all have to make the decision.

Who is saying COVID is a non-issue? Certainly not me. It's like cancer, or heart disease, or obesity. But it's not like the black plague, or even poverty. Yet, none of those other issues have generated as much discussion on this forum.

In the larger context our response to it has been much larger than it needed to be. The age adjusted death rate in 2020 was just as high in 2008, yet we weren't locking down the economy then to save lives. We have over-reacted, that's all. You all do what you want. I'll do what I want. And I will confront lies and judgements of my perspective (at my leisure, of course).

 

[Billinsd]

FWIW,
I got my first dose of the Moderna vaccine yesterday. The level of ‘scared to get the shot” was crazy As its essentially a flu shot.

Why is that^ ?

It seems to me its because of politics and media hype.

Kaiser has given out tens of thousands of doses with a tiny fraction of a fraction of reactions.

Any medical Procedure involves a risk. Getting the vaccine the risk is so small it’s not even worth talking about.

When I got mine I didn't notice anyone anxious or afraid. Well anxious to get the shot and get out of there was me. Parking was tough in this part of town, so I parked 10 blocks away at a Costco. I tried to leave after the shot, but there was someone making sure we stayed 15 minutes. I asked the person if she'd witnessed adverse reactions she said it was people who were real anxious and their heart would beat real fast. I felt a bit worse than taking a flu shot. My wife got her second and she had some minor fatigue and runny nose. I have friend that got the single dose and the symptoms sounded a little worse than the double dose.

 

[307]

Who is saying COVID is a non-issue? Certainly not me. It's like cancer, or heart disease, or obesity. But it's not like the black plague, or even poverty. Yet, none of those other issues have generated as much discussion on this forum.

Is cancer, heart disease or obesity contagious?

 

[Billinsd]

Who is saying COVID is a non-issue? Certainly not me. It's like cancer, or heart disease, or obesity. But it's not like the black plague, or even poverty. Yet, none of those other issues have generated as much discussion on this forum.

In the larger context our response to it has been much larger than it needed to be. The age adjusted death rate in 2020 was just as high in 2008, yet we weren't locking down the economy then to save lives. We have over-reacted, that's all. You all do what you want. I'll do what I want. And I will confront lies and judgements of my perspective (at my leisure, of course).

Exactly many treat this as if it was Ebola with a 50% death rate. This is a nasty virus, very deadly for old people, but so is the flu and pneumonia. The big issue is liberty and government overreach. Some believe people should choose to go to work, run their business, eat in a restaurant, and don't trust the government like me. They remember the CDC and Dr Faux saying don't wear masks and found out they were lying, because they wanted enough masks for health care workers. However, I was reluctantly ok with the initial 2 week flatten the curve in big cities. On the other extreme people believe every one MUST get a vaccine and everyone MUST do exactly what the government dictates, because they are scared and or believe in government to take care of them. Of course most people are somewhere in between the two extremes.