Point Banking in Colorado - Pay Extra?

[CMF]

What point amount(s) constitute "no man's land"? I often hear complaints about "no man's land," but I'm not seeing a literal absence of available tags between the plentiful, low point opportunity hunts on one end and the distant Shangri-la of glory tags on the other end. It appears that anyone stuck in "no man's land" is there by his own choosing.

Below is data from last year's draw showing how many hunt codes were drawn out at mid-to-high point levels. I excluded 4 points or fewer for residents and 3 points or fewer for non-residents to avoid compressing the graphs and because there is plenty of opportunity at those point levels (20+ hunt codes drawn out).

View attachment 542458

There are a few dispersed gaps, but at any point level, there's at least one hunt code within 1-2 points that you would be guaranteed to draw. Obviously your options become more limited at higher point levels, but I'm not seeing a complete "no man's land" where you can't get a tag for close to your current point total.

I think you're showing all weapon-type hunts. Most guys are going for a specific weapon so the gap would be more clear if you separated by weapon type.
In regards to archery, You'll see it when you start researching those mid-tier units themselves. For NR, it's about 5-14. I was looking into it for a buddy that has 14 points. Just because some units drew out at 9,10,11, etc doesn't mean they're worth that. Some may not have much public, or trophy quality isn't there. Basically for where he's at(14pp), I would draw a 4/5 point unit or hold out to draw a 15 point unit that he'll start having a chance at this year.
He's definitely there by his choosing, but he's also on the cusp of drawing the unit he's been chasing after and hunting deer in every couple years. The crazy thing is, he didn't even apply this year even tho he would have had a chance at it, he just got pp. The pp pool at his level is so large, even tho he has a chance at drawing, he probably won't be a guarantee for 5+ years.

 

[Overdrive]

That would happen even more often in a pure random draw.

True preference just isn’t tenable.

Weighted MSG model (Colorado) is the best model out there IMO.

Colorado's Weighted system is a Random draw, there is no benefit for those holding more weighted points than the guys at the bottom. Once an applicant has 3 PP they are put in the draw for a tag.

Go spend some time looking up the stats on the weighted system for Moose, Sheep and Goat and see just how many max point holders draw. I know plenty that have drawn in the 3+3 to 3+7 range but know of no one personally that has drawn with max points.

Colorado's Weighted system is the worst out there.

 

[ElDiablito]

Colorado's Weighted system is a Random draw, there is no benefit for those holding more weighted points than the guys at the bottom. Once an applicant has 3 PP they are put in the draw for a tag.

Go spend some time looking up the stats on the weighted system for Moose, Sheep and Goat and see just how many max point holders draw. I know plenty that have drawn in the 3+3 to 3+7 range but know of no one personally that has drawn with max points.

Colorado's Weighted system is the worst out there.

Not exactly. Weighted does mathematically improve your chances of drawing. This isn’t debatable if you understand how it works.

Weighted preference is calculated by converting your application number into a different random application number, then dividing that new application number by the number of weighted points you have, plus 1. Individuals with three preference points and no weighted preference points will have their application number divided by one. Weighted preference increases your probability of drawing and applies to both male and female RMBS, moose and goat licenses.

The reason you see a high number of guys with fewer weighted points draw is simply because there are more applicants in these lower point tiers.

 

[ladogg411]

Colorado's Weighted system is a Random draw, there is no benefit for those holding more weighted points than the guys at the bottom. Once an applicant has 3 PP they are put in the draw for a tag.

Wrong. Applicant with lowest random number gets the tag. Your drawn random # goes in numerator, your weighted points goes in denominator. To get you a new LOWER number for the draw. So, bigger # in bottom clearly has advantages.

This is all opinion and everyone is biased. But CPW's weighted MSG model is the best out there IMO. And it's just so odd that this great move came from the state that also runs the worst model in existence (true preference for DEP-bear).

Yes, 3+0 guys will draw over 3+25 guys, but that's easier to stomach than seeing 0 point guys draw in true random (AK, ID, NM). And despite that happening, the 3+25 guy got the added odds that he paid for.

 

[Ownthewest]

Mike Street wrote an awesome article for Rokslide about the weighted point system last year. Colorado has the most confusing but fairest system out there. Go read the article.

 

[Overdrive]

Not exactly. Weighted does mathematically improve your chances of drawing. This isn’t debatable if you understand how it works.

Weighted preference is calculated by converting your application number into a different random application number, then dividing that new application number by the number of weighted points you have, plus 1. Individuals with three preference points and no weighted preference points will have their application number divided by one. Weighted preference increases your probability of drawing and applies to both male and female RMBS, moose and goat licenses.

The reason you see a high number of guys with fewer weighted points draw is simply because there are more applicants in these lower point tiers.

Your example completely proves that Colorado's weighted system is in fact random, you even stated that you are given a random number and then it is divided, meaning you are not given the same number every year you apply. One year you could have a higher number from the start and the next year could be a lower number, the very definition of Random.
So if an applicant has a random number or 19,498 and has it divided by 3 weighted points it twill come out lower than an applicant with a random number or 190,236 and is divided by 25 weighted points. This being a random draw. If weighted points had any weight or value they would be drawn out at a much faster rate then they are.

I know how the systems work been playing the game for 30+ years in Colorado.

 

[Overdrive]

Wrong. Applicant with lowest random number gets the tag. Your drawn random # goes in numerator, your weighted points goes in denominator. To get you a new LOWER number for the draw. So, bigger # in bottom clearly has advantages.

This is all opinion and everyone is biased. But CPW's weighted MSG model is the best out there IMO. And it's just so odd that this great move came from the state that also runs the worst model in existence (true preference for DEP-bear).

Yes, 3+0 guys will draw over 3+25 guys, but that's easier to stomach than seeing 0 point guys draw in true random (AK, ID, NM). And despite that happening, the 3+25 guy got the added odds that he paid for.

Again like the other response, you just proved it is a random draw. You are given a random number every year not the same number every year.

Ask the guys with 3+25 if it's easy to stomach when a guy with 3+0 draws out before they have.

 

[ladogg411]

I know how the systems work been playing the game for 30+ years in Colorado.

So, you are 3+27 for MSG rather than a guaranteed preference draw.

And you are accustomed to true preference for the other CO species.

Makes perfect sense for a boomer in your position to be against weighted MSG. You want your 100% guaranteed tag at the expense of everyone else.

 

[KsRancher]

Again like the other response, you just proved it is a random draw. You are given a random number every year not the same number every year.

Ask the guys with 3+25 if it's easy to stomach when a guy with 3+0 draws out before they have.

It's "random" but guys with higher points draw at a higher percentage. I ran the numbers. Guys with 11 weighted points and up drew at 3 times the rate the guys with 10 and down for moose

 

[ladogg411]

Again like the other response, you just proved it is a random draw.

Weighted random.

I think you actually understand how it works. You just want your 100% guaranteed preference msg tags like you get for the other species.

 

[cnelk]

Makes perfect sense for a boomer in your position to be against weighted MSG. You want your 100% guaranteed tag at the expense of everyone else.

Spoken like a true non-boomer

 

[ElDiablito]

Your example completely proves that Colorado's weighted system is in fact random, you even stated that you are given a random number and then it is divided, meaning you are not given the same number every year you apply. One year you could have a higher number from the start and the next year could be a lower number, the very definition of Random.
So if an applicant has a random number or 19,498 and has it divided by 3 weighted points it twill come out lower than an applicant with a random number or 190,236 and is divided by 25 weighted points. This being a random draw. If weighted points had any weight or value they would be drawn out at a much faster rate then they are.

I know how the systems work been playing the game for 30+ years in Colorado.

Sounds like we agree then. The weighted system does mathematically improve one’s odds.

 

[svivian]

You want your 100% guaranteed tag at the expense of everyone else.

Expand on this? What are you implying? waiting 30 years to draw is at the expense of others? Did someone who drew with 7 weighted points for example put in more effort somehow?

quite the statement you made there...

 

[Jethro]

Makes perfect sense for a boomer in your position to be against weighted MSG. You want your 100% guaranteed tag at the expense of everyone else.

Don't have to be a boomer to believe in the first come first served concept. It's been in existence for quite some time.

 

[Jaquomo]

Again like the other response, you just proved it is a random draw. You are given a random number every year not the same number every year.

Ask the guys with 3+25 if it's easy to stomach when a guy with 3+0 draws out before they have.

My hunting partner drew cow moose last year with 3+1. I did not draw with 3+20...

 

[Steve O]

So, you are 3+27 for MSG rather than a guaranteed preference draw.

And you are accustomed to true preference for the other CO species.

Makes perfect sense for a boomer in your position to be against weighted MSG. You want your 100% guaranteed tag at the expense of everyone else.

 

[ladogg411]

Expand on this? What are you implying? waiting 30 years to draw is at the expense of others? Did someone who drew with 7 weighted points for example put in more effort somehow?

quite the statement you made there...

To want true preference MSG over modified MSG is to give every tag to the oldest living applicant. At the expense of all other applicants.

For high quality tags, true preference will completely saturate. Like has for various CO elk and deer tags. And would also for MSG if it was used for MSG.

Quite literally, everyone has to start applying at 12 years of age. And then oultive everyone in your point group. Only those guys would ever hunt MSG. Not theoretical - that is exactly where CO MSG would be today if CPW hadn't saved MSG with the weighted model.

Weighted MSG is the only reason I apply in CO. I would have abandoned the CO DEP dumpster fire years ago if not for weighted MSG.

No system is perfect, but true preference for MSG is insane.

 

[svivian]

To want true preference MSG over modified MSG is to give every tag to the oldest living applicant. At the expense of all other applicants.

For high quality tags, true preference will completely saturate. Like has for various CO elk and deer tags. And would also for MSG if it was used for MSG.

Quite literally, everyone has to start applying at 12 years of age. And then oultive everyone in your point group. Only those guys would ever hunt MSG. Not theoretical - that is exactly where CO MSG would be today if CPW hadn't saved MSG with the weighted model.

Weighted MSG is the only reason I apply in CO. I would have abandoned the CO DEP dumpster fire years ago if not for weighted MSG.

No system is perfect, but true preference for MSG is insane.

Got it you want your cake now instead of waiting 30 years at the expense of the guys ahead of you.

Alot of words typed though to not really answer my questions though! see how I can turn that around on you....

 

[ladogg411]

Got it you want your cake now instead of waiting 30 years at the expense of the guys ahead of you.

Alot of words typed though to not really answer my questions though! see how I can turn that around on you....

Correct. We have to accept weighted-randomness and the fact that some old guys die will still die withou ever drawing MSG while young guys cut in to the line with 3+0. You have to accept that in order to have a system that can age and not saturate. A system that can attract new entrants and fund CPW.

Weighted MSG is current CPW policy and it's not under review so this is a tangent.

Back to the thread title --- I love the idea of point banking.

 

[ladogg411]

Don't have to be a boomer to believe in the first come first served concept. It's been in existence for quite some time.

Yes, and I still think we should all form an orderly "true preference" line at a cash register (for example). But when the line at the cash register is 40-60 years long, you have to start thinking of other solutions or else everyone just dies while waiting in a line.

CPW found that other solution with weighted/modified MSG.