No Big Game Tags Drawn, is this normal?

[roadrunner]

Demand was pretty static until #witnessme entered the chat.

Supply hasn’t increased in that amount of time. Winter kill has decreased supply.

The only thing growing is "the industry".

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Demand never has and never will affect supply. The amount of tags available is a set number completely independent of how many wants a tag. Adjusting the price won't even affect it either.

Supply and demand curves are used to find equilibrium points. The only thing the graphic above shows is more people interested in hunting. The decrease in supply would naturally cause the price to increase to match the quantity demanded. Not the case with hunting tags. Hunting tags are not a competitive market driven commodity.

 

[Dos Perros]

I just realized that chart has cumulative Google searches...lol. Pretty misleading.

 

[BBob]

Well in the meantime I'll just also keep doing what I'm doing (drawing tags). And you can too!

Good on you but time is not on our side here. AZ draw odds took one of the biggest dumps this past year ever. It was pretty noticeable. Between the expanding resident population that wants to hunt and the steady influx on non-res apps it's going away quick. Not long ago it was unheard of to not draw a Coues tag, now you better play the odds or you're not hunting or not hunting on your own tag. How long before the odds game won't save you? Used to be a cow elk hunt was almost a guaranteed draw, no more. I'm seeing guys that used to hunt cows every year drop to every other year to now every 3-4 years.

 

[Pacific_Fork]

I just realized that chart has cumulative Google searches...lol. Pretty misleading.

Expand on that. Google trends is what we used to get that data, it’s solid. After you do please try and argue that correlation doesn’t equal causation here. I’d love to be wrong that hunting social media marketing doesn’t work. But, you know, marketing works.

 

[fatlander]

Demand never has and never will affect supply. The amount of tags available is a set number completely independent of how many wants a tag. Adjusting the price won't even affect it either.

Supply and demand curves are used to find equilibrium points. The only thing the graphic above shows is more people interested in hunting. The decrease in supply would naturally cause the price to increase to match the quantity demanded. Not the case with hunting tags. Hunting tags are not a competitive market driven commodity.

Demand can definitely affect supply.

The state of Wyoming increased prices of their special tags to try to slow demand.

You tried to buy a landowner tag anywhere lately? Demand has absolutely increased the price.


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[spur60]

Demand is definitely on the rise. I was just looking at draw statistics for SD black hills 2nd draw (cow) elk.
An example of increased demand in one of the cow units:
2022 - 20 tags, 650 applicants
2023 - 20 tags, 850 applicants
2024 - 20 tags, 1500 applicants.

And not only is there an increase, but now people are burning their preference points on 2nd draw cow tags.

 

[Dos Perros]

Good on you but time is not on our side here. AZ draw odds took one of the biggest dumps this past year ever. It was pretty noticeable. Between the expanding resident population that wants to hunt and the steady influx on non-res apps it's going away quick. Not long ago it was unheard of to not draw a Coues tag, now you better play the odds or you're not hunting or not hunting on your own tag. How long before the odds game won't save you? Used to be a cow elk hunt was almost a guaranteed draw, no more. I'm seeing guys that used to hunt cows every year drop to every other year to now every 3-4 years.

I get it, and somewhat agree. I do wonder if some folks will exit or age out. I don't think the growth rate can continue for the next 15 years.

 

[Dos Perros]

Expand on that. Google trends is what we used to get that data, it’s solid. After you do please try and argue that correlation doesn’t equal causation here. I’d love to be wrong that hunting social media marketing doesn’t work. But, you know, marketing works.

The chart shouldn't use cumulative searches because the same search shows up multiple times in the data. It dramatizes the data. Total searches per time period is what should be used. Admittedly, the result may look similar. But I assume the author of the chart did it for a reason to suit their purpose (whatever that is).

 

[Wyo_hntr]

We just need more hunters. Some TV hunter said so (because his livelihood and sponsors depend on more)

 

[jtg88]

We just need more hunters. Some TV hunter said so (because his livelihood and sponsors depend on more)

Yeahhhhh

 

[Wyo_hntr]

Yeahhhhh

R3!

 

[roadrunner]

Demand can definitely affect supply.

The state of Wyoming increased prices of their special tags to try to slow demand.

You tried to buy a landowner tag anywhere lately? Demand has absolutely increased the price.


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Don't confuse popularity with what real demand is. The price of LO tags has increased substantially not because LO tag numbers have been cut with the result of a price gouging phenomena being the result. What LO's are doing is reacting to what really is turing into an oligopoly among outfitters.

Also, comparing unregulated hunting "back then" is apples and oranges compared to today.

The supply/demand concept doesn't apply to recreational hunting.

The pic you posted is from when market hunting was a thing, no different than charging $1.25 for a prime cut porterhouse. For that price, everyone would want one.

 

[robtattoo]

Besides, it would cost about $1,000 in gas to drive there and back for a chance at a bunch of venison. Or I can take that $1000 to the grocery store and fill my freeze with steaks on easy mode.
That works going East to West because even if you strike out on elk, you're hanging out in the vacation destination Rocky Mountains.

Replace "Rocky" with 'Great Smoky'

Same difference & thousands of us manage it nearly every year.

On top of the $1500+ tags

The views "back east" are just disgusting. Forget what I said. Don't come here.

 

[Mojave]

I do the same thing. I calculate odds of not drawing a tag and subtracting it from one so I know the odds of drawing one or more tags. For example (using GoHunt odds), I have/had a 29% chance of drawing Montana antelope, 3.1% chance of drawing Arizona elk, and 3.4% chance of drawing New Mexico barbary sheep. My odds of drawing one or more of these tags are 33.5%=1-(1-0.29)*(1-0.031)*(1-0.034). I actually applied for more than just these tags and my overall draw odds for drawing one or more tags was 41.1%, with only Montana antelope to go. So far I have draw zero of these tags besides the Colorado elk tag that was guaranteed with 3 points.

Lastly, these odds do not incorporate point creep, but like Dos Perros mentioned, you can try to predict the trend by using past draw recaps and data from GoHunt.

No Go hunt does not give the odds of drawing. They give last years odds. They are not worthless, but their value is massively oversold.

 

[tboltz34]

Demand can definitely affect supply.

The state of Wyoming increased prices of their special tags to try to slow demand.

You tried to buy a landowner tag anywhere lately? Demand has absolutely increased the price.


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In normal supply and demand, price can affect supply and price can affect demand. Demand does not affect supply, and vice versa.

However, this is not normal consumer supply and demand. The fish and game could create more supply, by offering more tags but that would not be sustainable because game populations would not be at healthly levels and could cause . Additionally, I would not consider this a free market because an individual state controls all of the supply.

No Go hunt does not give the odds of drawing. They give last years odds. They are not worthless, but their value is massively oversold.

Correct, which is why I said these odds do not incorporate point creep.

I also do not believe they are worthless, it gives a good starting point for someone who understands trends and draws.

 

[fatlander]

In normal supply and demand, price can affect supply and price can affect demand. Demand does not affect supply, and vice versa.

However, this is not normal consumer supply and demand. The fish and game could create more supply, by offering more tags but that would not be sustainable because game populations would not be at healthly levels and could cause . Additionally, I would not consider this a free market because an individual state controls all of the supply.

Correct, which is why I said these odds do not incorporate point creep.

I also do not believe they are worthless, it gives a good starting point for someone who understands trends and draws.

Supply in this instance isn’t the tag. It’s the actual availability of the tag. Demand has outpaced the actual availability of the tags, that’s why point systems were created. Point creep is further evident to the demand outpacing the actual availability. The explosion of western hunting pushed by profiteers (modern day market hunters) has further increased the demand.

In this case price most certainly can affect supply. Officials for the state of Wyoming raised the price of special tags to combat demand. Landowners and tag brokers are continuing to jack up their prices for tags… why? Demand is out pacing supply.

Aren’t Uncle Randy and Corey supposed to be putting more elk on the mountain with RMEF? All I can figure that they really do is decrease draw odds, hunt for a living, and help RMEF have fancy banquets that get a bunch of chubby boomers drunk to sell merch. Tag numbers haven’t increased in any meaningful way anywhere. Sure there’s some hobby herds that have popped up but that’s really because they’re cash cows for the State.


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[Mojave]

I do not believe we will ever see a massive down spiral in demand again. Unless some kind of 1980's predator control and bag limits is pushed, any up or down spiral in wildlife numbers will stay fairly stagnant.

Resident demand is steady if not increasing in most states.

Non-Resident demand is through the roof. Eastern states now have demand on things that were a gimme. Things like bears in a lot of the mid-west are on a draw. Those numbers have also gone up. Western non-residents are looking at OTC and draw tags in the eastern half of the country. This was unheard of in my youth.

Those mid tier earners are now pricing what used to be entry level big game hunts out of the realm of what most middle class folks (perceived Singles earning under $130,000 and married folks under $200,000).

Cheap private land hunts for 300 inch bull elk are $12,000. Public bulls are $7000-12,000. Super bulls on private are $30,000.

Prices for Dall sheep when I was in my 20's were near $4000 in Alaska and $6500 in the Yukon and NWT. Now they are 8 times that. They are what I call Dr. and Lawyer hunts now. What is more impressive is they are booked 3-5 years out at $35,000.

On the other hand:

The lost Gen and the Greatest gen are pretty much done hunting.

Boomers are finishing their big hunts they are in their late 60's and 70's.

X-Gens are really pushing hard they are int their late 40's to late 50's.

Y-Gens are having families and a $35,000 hunt or anything that doesn't have 4 wheels is a stretch.

Z-Gens are having families and not hunting.

My kids are Z and A gens. My A-Gen kids are not interested and my Z gen kids are not interested.

Maybe based on that logic there will be a time of decreased demand. But I have 30 more years of hunting in my 50's now. So it won't be me. Most of my X-gens peers are the same.

I think the Y-Gens will come back to hunting. I don't know how many of the Z and A's will start.

 

[MuleDeerMike]

They dont look at your application and say hey his first option is drawn out but there are still tags available for his second option

Some states do, like WA.

 

[Rich M]

More folks than opportunity is a harsh reality for the hunter.

If you need a hunt every year - figure out what draws or OTC you can get - maybe something like doe hunting.

It is a complicated feat these days to keep up with the various states, units, different draw types, etc. The big you tube names have videos on "how-to". Maybe that might help?

I have issues tracking just my in-state stuff - draws, points, better areas, etc., never mind continually monitoring stuff in other states.

My out west strategy is to buy points, once get enough points, then will worry about what draw can get and where. I started WY in 2017, hunted CO in 2019, WY in 2023 and now am starting down the point road again. Figure have about 10 years til the next hunt, should be interesting to see how things pan out. I'd like a nice hunt, not something with hunters over every hill. Kinda know which hunt unit and season that is. If not, i do have a back-up plan.

Also looking at some guided hunts, dropping $10K++ on a hunt does not interest me. There are some lower costs opportunities if you are into spending some money to provide an opportunity without waiting 3-5-10-20 years to go hunt.

Still good hunting to be had if you want to work at it or buy it.

 

[rogerthat]

Yep. You got newberged. It’s really common these days. Better luck next year.