NM drawn hunt question

[jm1607]

From what I understand, they pick names. Then, once your name is picked they check your 1st choice, then 2nd, then 3rd...

I was looking at previous year drawings and I noticed there was a high correlation between people chosen and their 1st choice.

Example: 100 tags were drawn. There were 150 1st choice apps for that unit and 500 2nd/3rd choice apps. Then, 85-90 of the tags were drawn by 1st choice apps? *I made this one up, but it seemed like it was this way for every drawing I looked at..

Is there some factor I'm not taking into account, like is your 1st choice weighted at all? I can't see how it could be...

And yes I know there's a NR cap and a guide draw and everything but that's not what I'm talking about..

 

[IChaseCoues]

As far as I know and can tell you right on track.
The way it was explained to me was like this:

Computer picks a name
checks first choice for availability
if available assigns hunt to applicant and anyone else on that application
if unavailable checks second choice for availability and assigns hunt if available to applicant and anyone else on that application
if unavailable checks third choice for availability and assigns hunt if available to applicant and anyone else on that application
if unavailable checks fourth choice for availability and assigns hunt if available to applicant and anyone else on that application
if no hunts available moves to next random applicant.

So you just hope you're lucky enough to be chosen high enough on the list to get your first choice, then if not maybe high enough for your second choice, etc.

 

[IChaseCoues]

I will say studying the draw odds in depth can be a pain but sometimes a great help for the guy that is willing to go anywhere in the state to hunt.

 

[wapitibob]

They look at all 3, then go to the next guy. You can tune your choices by looking as you did but it was easier when they had units with 3 hunt periods. Now that they have only two, it will take a cpl years to see if some units are better as a 3rd choice.