NM draw results are posted

[Red Man]

Nothing for me

 

[BugleMeTimber]

nada, only put in for elk.

 

[MiiisterAnderson]

The Oryx are safe from me for another year.

 

[roadrunner]

Green elk and green deer . But I’m a resident so that 84% tag allocation favors me a bit lol


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Glad it favors somebody, because it doesn't favor me...

 

[ncstewart]

When do I get my beer money back


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[canyonhunter47]

A swing and a miss here

 

[Floater00]

Nada, as usual

 

[PDob]

Seeing Red, once again

 

[SammY STW]

Nothing for me, but I also applied for low odds units

 

[Dilligafbp]

big fat ZERO

 

[JPD350]

One 3rd choice deer tag out of 6 Apps

 

[dtrkyman]

0 for 5, first year as a resident, oh well drew a non res. deer tag last year go figure.

A non res friend drew deer and elk in outfitter pool.

 

[HoytHntr4]

All red here, congrats to anyone who lucked out and drew a tag!

 

[butcherboy]

All red for me. Two years in a row with nothing as a resident. 21 years since I drew a deer tag now! I’m lucky to get an elk tag every 4-5 years, maybe.

 

[thegoosano]

All red for me. Two years in a row with nothing as a resident. 21 years since I drew a deer tag now! I’m lucky to get an elk tag every 4-5 years, maybe.

Just looking at statistics, that seems like you’re applying for very premium tags if you haven’t drawn in 21yrs. You could be the most unlucky guy in the state, but more than likely you should look at draw odds and apply in some units for 3rd choice that you have 50%-60% chance to draw. For archery I’ve drawn deer and elk 3 of the last 4 years, only one of those has been a Q/HD tag but it was actually one of the ones I didn’t even tag out on. Definitely no reason you should be going that long without tags!


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[roadrunner]

Just looking at statistics, that seems like you’re applying for very premium tags if you haven’t drawn in 21yrs. You could be the most unlucky guy in the state, but more than likely you should look at draw odds and apply in some units for 3rd choice that you have 50%-60% chance to draw. For archery I’ve drawn deer and elk 3 of the last 4 years, only one of those has been a Q/HD tag but it was actually one of the ones I didn’t even tag out on. Definitely no reason you should be going that long without tags!


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There is no such thing as playing the odds in NM, you cannot calculate what your chances are.

All you can do is apply for hunts that don't "fill up" as fast based on how many 2nd and 3rd choices are filled with that hunt code and hope for the best and even then it's a false indicator. It's all dumb luck.

The odds you calculate are not true odds, it just indicates a hope should your app get polled early enough.

To say someone is putting in for the wrong hunts is incorrect because the guy sitting next to you is always drawing a hunt you put in for as well...

 

[realunlucky]

There is no such thing as playing the odds in NM, you cannot calculate what your chances are.

All you can do is apply for hunts that don't "fill up" as fast based on how many 2nd and 3rd choices are filled with that hunt code and hope for the best and even then it's a false indicator. It's all dumb luck.

The odds you calculate are not true odds, it just indicates a hope should your app get polled early enough.

To say someone is putting in for the wrong hunts is incorrect because the guy sitting next to you is always drawing a hunt you put in for as well...

All odds are a guess of how it happened last year to use as an indicator of what to expect this year.
Some times it works and sometimes there's a variable like people applied somewhere new this year that can't be accounted for using last year's data.


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[WKR]

Drew a rifle pronghorn tag

 

[thegoosano]

There is no such thing as playing the odds in NM, you cannot calculate what your chances are.

All you can do is apply for hunts that don't "fill up" as fast based on how many 2nd and 3rd choices are filled with that hunt code and hope for the best and even then it's a false indicator. It's all dumb luck.

The odds you calculate are not true odds, it just indicates a hope should your app get polled early enough.

To say someone is putting in for the wrong hunts is incorrect because the guy sitting next to you is always drawing a hunt you put in for as well...

Sure, you can’t calculate the odds exactly that is definitely true. But I’ll tell you for a fact that it is very possible to know which units are easier to draw than others and use your 3rd choice as a much more “high odds” choice. It’s definitely not just dumb luck.

I’m not saying anyone is “putting in for the wrong hunts”, or at least I didn’t mean for it to sound harsh. Everyone has their reason to apply for a unit and that is totally fine. All I’m saying is that if your annoyed or upset for not drawing in 21 years, you should broaden your horizons and use that 3rd choice just to get out and hunt in “high odds” units


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[roadrunner]

All you can do is apply for hunts that don't "fill up" as fast based on how many 2nd and 3rd choices are filled with that hunt code and hope for the best and even then it's a false indicator. It's all dumb luck.

Sure, you can’t calculate the odds exactly that is definitely true. But I’ll tell you for a fact that it is very possible to know which units are easier to draw than others and use your 3rd choice as a much more “high odds” choice. It’s definitely not just dumb luck.

That's why I wrote what I wrote. All you can do is hope to get something based on what others did last year and use a 3rd choice for a hunt code that didn't "fill up" as fast based on how may 2nd and 3rd choice people got that tag. Using it as a 1st choice may or may not give you the tag.

It all depends on where your application is in the list after the random shuffle. If there are 250,000 applications and your application is number 249,995, you are SOL no matter what. The "dumb luck" is when your app is number 000100 relative to whatever place holding it has in the line with all the other apps against the hunt code and choice mix you put in for.

So yes, it is a reality to go without any tag at all for several years. A 33% "chance" at drawing doesn't mean you will draw a tag once every three years. Just means you have less than a 50/50 chance of pulling that tag every year and it may be repeated for 10 years, depending on where your app stands in the line with all the others.

I've seen on BOWsite where someone thought they could predict an outcome using a Monte Carlo method with 1000 simulations. Doesn't work that way because NM doesn't run your app 1000 times before assigning you a draw number and choosing the best.