NM draw results are posted

Joined
Jul 20, 2014
Messages
1,281
Location
Kirtland, NM
I don’t have a lot of time to go on hunts so I put in for the units I have hunted since I was a kid. I know them well and how to hunt them so, when I only have a few days to hunt I make them count. I’m also really unlucky for years then BAM! I get some good hunts.
 

swavescatter

Pain in the butt!
Joined
Apr 3, 2021
Messages
1,267
Sure, you can’t calculate the odds exactly that is definitely true. But I’ll tell you for a fact that it is very possible to know which units are easier to draw than others and use your 3rd choice as a much more “high odds” choice. It’s definitely not just dumb luck.

I’m not saying anyone is “putting in for the wrong hunts”, or at least I didn’t mean for it to sound harsh. Everyone has their reason to apply for a unit and that is totally fine. All I’m saying is that if your annoyed or upset for not drawing in 21 years, you should broaden your horizons and use that 3rd choice just to get out and hunt in “high odds” units :)


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Shhhh! We need people to keep thinking there's no way to increase chances of drawing a tag!

Gila, Valle Vidal and Valles Caldera are the only worthwhile options! Same odds!
 
Joined
May 10, 2015
Messages
2,474
Location
Timberline
Shhhh! We need people to keep thinking there's no way to increase chances of drawing a tag!

Gila, Valle Vidal and Valles Caldera are the only worthwhile options! Same odds!
You are right I suppose. You can use a hunt code normally given as a 4th choice leftover as your first choice and draw every year.

When someone can figure out the algorithm to guarentee a draw in NM's system, you will dominate the market.

Until then, the consistent lucky ones will continue to think they have the tiger by the tail. Then suddenly, one day, their luck will run out...
 
Joined
Jan 22, 2017
Messages
1,026
Location
Santa Fe, NM
I don’t have a lot of time to go on hunts so I put in for the units I have hunted since I was a kid. I know them well and how to hunt them so, when I only have a few days to hunt I make them count. I’m also really unlucky for years then BAM! I get some good hunts.

Ya totally makes sense man. I have some units near where I live that I know like the back of my hand and can hunt most years, but draw odds are going down 1-2%/yr there so in 10yrs I’ll be in the same boat :(


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