Glad it favors somebody, because it doesn't favor me...Green elk and green deer . But I’m a resident so that 84% tag allocation favors me a bit lol
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All red for me. Two years in a row with nothing as a resident. 21 years since I drew a deer tag now! I’m lucky to get an elk tag every 4-5 years, maybe.
Just looking at statistics, that seems like you’re applying for very premium tags if you haven’t drawn in 21yrs. You could be the most unlucky guy in the state, but more than likely you should look at draw odds and apply in some units for 3rd choice that you have 50%-60% chance to draw. For archery I’ve drawn deer and elk 3 of the last 4 years, only one of those has been a Q/HD tag but it was actually one of the ones I didn’t even tag out on. Definitely no reason you should be going that long without tags!
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All odds are a guess of how it happened last year to use as an indicator of what to expect this year.There is no such thing as playing the odds in NM, you cannot calculate what your chances are.
All you can do is apply for hunts that don't "fill up" as fast based on how many 2nd and 3rd choices are filled with that hunt code and hope for the best and even then it's a false indicator. It's all dumb luck.
The odds you calculate are not true odds, it just indicates a hope should your app get polled early enough.
To say someone is putting in for the wrong hunts is incorrect because the guy sitting next to you is always drawing a hunt you put in for as well...
There is no such thing as playing the odds in NM, you cannot calculate what your chances are.
All you can do is apply for hunts that don't "fill up" as fast based on how many 2nd and 3rd choices are filled with that hunt code and hope for the best and even then it's a false indicator. It's all dumb luck.
The odds you calculate are not true odds, it just indicates a hope should your app get polled early enough.
To say someone is putting in for the wrong hunts is incorrect because the guy sitting next to you is always drawing a hunt you put in for as well...
All you can do is apply for hunts that don't "fill up" as fast based on how many 2nd and 3rd choices are filled with that hunt code and hope for the best and even then it's a false indicator. It's all dumb luck.
That's why I wrote what I wrote. All you can do is hope to get something based on what others did last year and use a 3rd choice for a hunt code that didn't "fill up" as fast based on how may 2nd and 3rd choice people got that tag. Using it as a 1st choice may or may not give you the tag.Sure, you can’t calculate the odds exactly that is definitely true. But I’ll tell you for a fact that it is very possible to know which units are easier to draw than others and use your 3rd choice as a much more “high odds” choice. It’s definitely not just dumb luck.