New Mexico tag strategy for nonresidents

[Chris in TN]

Don’t overthink it. Just put in for the hunts you would like to do or like to take your kids on. The odds of drawing everything you want are extremely low. I had a lot of applications out as a resident and didn’t draw a single thing. I haven’t drawn a rifle deer tag in this state in 25 years. Still beats a preference point system because I have a chance every year.

Yikes. 25 years is a long time by eastern standards. But I appreciate the advice and the perspective.

We will probably do exactly that and all three of us apply for pronghorn tags, likely on separate applications. I have some workable ideas on backup plans in other states, and all winter to sort it out. Thanks.

 

[butcherboy]

Yikes. 25 years is a long time by eastern standards. But I appreciate the advice and the perspective.

We will probably do exactly that and all three of us apply for pronghorn tags, likely on separate applications. I have some workable ideas on backup plans in other states, and all winter to sort it out. Thanks.

Also, I live in the four corners area so if you come for visit I can give you some good places to eat and things to do/see.

 

[Maverick1]

Analysis paralysis. As an adult NR applicant, this is an example of how it works.
100 NR’s apply. 1 draws a tag. You are not the lucky 1. You are one of the 99 losers, just like the rest of us. That’s it.

I would not be concerned with drawing too many tags.

 

[Chris in TN]

Also, I live in the four corners area so if you come for visit I can give you some good places to eat and things to do/see.

I'd likely take you up on that.


When we came through Santa Fe a few weeks ago on the way back from CO I took my daughter to the best restaurant I knew to go to - Blake's Lotaburger. lol.

 

[Chris in TN]

Analysis paralysis. As an adult NR applicant, this is an example of how it works.
100 NR’s apply. 1 draws a tag. You are not the lucky 1. You are one of the 99 losers, just like the rest of us. That’s it.

I would not be concerned with drawing too many tags.

Again, I honestly needed to hear that.

 

[Maverick1]

Again, I honestly needed to hear that.

You are welcome, I guess! To be more analytical, you can look at the draw odds. From there it is simple mathematics.

If there are two independent outcomes, with each having a 1% probably of happening (drawing a tag), the chance of both independent outcomes happening (drawing two tags) is
0.01%.

When two events are independent, the probability of both occurring is the product of their individual probabilities. In this case, each event has a 1% chance of happening, which is a probability of 0.01. Therefore, the probability of both events happening is calculated as

0.01×0.01=0.0001
, or 0.01%.

 

[roadrunner]

The real "best" way to look at the draw summary is to focus on hunt codes that tend to not "fill up" as quickly based on the distribution of 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choice rankings any particular hunt code has.

Case Scenario:

ANT - 1 - 614 with 25 tags total
1st: 20
2nd: 4
3rd: 1

ANT - 1 - 825 with 35 tags total
1st: 5
2nd: 20
3rd: 10

ANT - 1 - 487 with 30 tags total
1st: 25
2nd: 5
3rd: 0

You may want a strategy of doing the third hunt code listed as a 1st choice, the first hunt as a 2nd choice, and the second hunt as a 3rd choice.

Mind you, this doesn't guarantee anything because it depends on where your application is after the random shuffle. Towards the top and you're hunting, towards the bottom and you're SOL.

People draw quality and high demand hunts as 2nd and 3rd choices all the time that may have been your 1st and 2nd choices because of the random shuffle.

Disclaimer: I made up the antelope hunt codes for illustration purposes only.

 

[deltadukman]

My take as a non-resident who drew a non-resident elk tag, combo app with my brother, first choice selection, first time I ever entered the draw, and haven't been able to draw since.... if this is your first time, shoot for the moon. There seems to be some thought to some weight being put on first time draw applicants getting drawn more frequent than repeat draw applicants. I am by no means saying that is true, just an observation.

 

[OKHunter84]

My take as a non-resident who drew a non-resident elk tag, combo app with my brother, first choice selection, first time I ever entered the draw, and haven't been able to draw since.... if this is your first time, shoot for the moon. There seems to be some thought to some weight being put on first time draw applicants getting drawn more frequent than repeat draw applicants. I am by no means saying that is true, just an observation.

Me and my Dad drew on a rifle party tag for a mule deer hunt back in 2013 for a unit that's fairly tough to draw. That was our first hunt as well. I've drawn other units and that unit for muzzy since, but never rifle again yet.

The guy who's not drawn a resident deer tag in 25 years, are you setting your application up the same way every year? That seems crazy. Not being critical, I feel bad for you. If I lived in NM and couldn't draw a deer tag, I'd be pissed.

 

[roadrunner]

Me and my Dad drew on a rifle party tag for a mule deer hunt back in 2013 for a unit that's fairly tough to draw. That was our first hunt as well. I've drawn other units and that unit for muzzy since, but never rifle again yet.

The guy who's not drawn a resident deer tag in 25 years, are you setting your application up the same way every year? That seems crazy. Not being critical, I feel bad for you. If I lived in NM and couldn't draw a deer tag, I'd be pissed.

Mixing up and changing an app every year doesn't matter. I haven't drawn an elk tag in 8 years.

I have never drawn an antelope tag.

I can't count the number of years on both hands since I've drawn a deer tag.

 

[OKHunter84]

Mixing up and changing an app every year doesn't matter. I haven't drawn an elk tag in 8 years.

I have never drawn an antelope tag.

I can't count the number of years on both hands since I've drawn a deer tag.

You're right mixing it up every year won't mean success. If you're doing the application the exact same over the time period was what I was curious about. Draw odds have changed a lot over the last 25 years.

 

[roadrunner]

You're right mixing it up every year won't mean success. If you're doing the application the exact same over the time period was what I was curious about. Draw odds have changed a lot over the last 25 years.

More people keep applying every year, that is what changes the "odds". Hunt codes people apply for every year fluctuates, it's not a linear trend.

I hope the new world record mule deer gets shot down in unit 30, maybe then it will free up some units closer to home.

 

[Chris in TN]

Mixing up and changing an app every year doesn't matter. I haven't drawn an elk tag in 8 years.

I have never drawn an antelope tag.

I can't count the number of years on both hands since I've drawn a deer tag.

That would absolutely stink. It does, though, make me appreciate the value of private land hunts. I knew NM was a hard place to draw good public tags but didn't realize it was this hard.

Also - as far as doe hunts being 'substandard' - no, not at all. We eat does every year. I just don't want to drive to NM to shoot a doe antelope when I am halfway certain I could draw a cow elk tag in CO in places that I could have a reasonable chance of shooting one.

 

[OKHunter84]

More people keep applying every year, that is what changes the "odds". Hunt codes people apply for every year fluctuates, it's not a linear trend.

I hope the new world record mule deer gets shot down in unit 30, maybe then it will free up some units closer to home.

Those 30's units aren't as easy as they used to be either. There was one down that way that I could draw not too bad for muzzy that I liked to hunt and now it's a long shot. You're right though. Too many people and not enough tags to go around.

 

[CMF]

I think it's driven by guys just wanting to go and thinking they'll get a tag and then figure the unit out afterwards.

Yep, I was that guy, lol. lesson learned...

 

[butcherboy]

Me and my Dad drew on a rifle party tag for a mule deer hunt back in 2013 for a unit that's fairly tough to draw. That was our first hunt as well. I've drawn other units and that unit for muzzy since, but never rifle again yet.

The guy who's not drawn a resident deer tag in 25 years, are you setting your application up the same way every year? That seems crazy. Not being critical, I feel bad for you. If I lived in NM and couldn't draw a deer tag, I'd be pissed.

It’s me that hasn’t drawn a deer tag in 25 years. I change it up every year. I’m not mad about it but more discouraged. As a kid we could just walk into any sporting good store and buy a rifle deer tag, pick the unit and the hunt date. If I was a better shot then I would have killed a few 170” bucks back then.