New Mexico Draw

[Gila]

@NoWiser is correct that those are not the drawing odds, they're just the basic statistics. To calculate the true draw odds for a system as complex as NM takes a lot of work, and is why companies like goHUNT and toprut are able to get people to pay them money every year to calculate them. You can't do it by simply dividing the number of tags by the number of apps. A certain number of the applicants will never be considered for a tag they applied for as their third choice because they already drew either their first or second choice. So the number of apps for a given tag that are actually considered is smaller than the number you're seeing reported in that PDF that NM puts out, thus the true draw odds are better than what you're calculating.

If you're legitimately interested in what the experts say I suggest reading the below link (not a Rokslide sponsor, mods can remove if they want).

Toprut - Western Big Game Hunting Reference

Draw odds, harvest data, interactive maps and more - Toprut is the most open and accessible western big game hunting research site ever created.

www.toprut.com

There's even other factors we're not talking about here that toprut accounts for, one of which being group applications. NM will only award your group a tag if there are enough tags to supply the entire group (some other states do it differently). I believe that isn't even listed in the "NM G&F drawing odds for 2020" report you're looking at. You can pay for a more detailed report that includes group apps and additional details, and that's what goHUNT and toprut do in order to calculate true draw odds.

It is a PITA to calculate all of the areas I am interested in....and take that effort times the species hunted. Definitely worth 10 bucks a year for 2 states. I did have a layer in Onx for migration data for each GMU which is huge for rifle hunts. I don't remember who did that layer. Eastman or RMEF? Anyway, no more migration layer. Migration corridors only relate to the Northern GMUs anyway. Down here the herds tend to move seasonally within a given area.

 

[Ravenk]

Goodluck Man!!
Goodluck Everybody!!!

 

[FLAK]

I'm waiting any day for a news release from NMDFG talking about a record number of applications.

 

[huntingaddiction]

Mine are submitted and I think I have better odds in every unit than I do in any of WA draws.

 

[Red Letters]

Thank you. I appreciate you welcoming sentiment.

instead of taking time to give a sincere thanks to guys that are trying to help you avoid wasting another 20 years of applying, you felt this was the appropriate response to the thread?

 

[tigb27]

Someone’s just starting shit

 

[TX_Diver]

Too early to start wagering on when they release the results? I'll bet 4/21 but hope for 4/14!!

 

[PunkRockDoc]

I've got $69 on 4/20

 

[Timberline001]

I'm waiting any day for a news release from NMDFG talking about a record number of applications.

Oh god I’m pretty confident NM will get it done well like they always do.

 

[wre280]

i feel like that pablo meme waiting on draw results

 

[loopmtz]

If I remember right, last year NM posted early and was before the deadline for Colorado. I was hoping it would happen this year again, but isn't looking good..

 

[Timberline001]

If I remember right, last year NM posted early and was before the deadline for Colorado. I was hoping it would happen this year again, but isn't looking good..

I’m just going to apply for points again in CO this year. I think everyone’s going to cash in their points for the first year of these later seasons and there will be a big point creep so I’m sure the odds of drawing the units I want are slim anyways.

 

[Felix40]

If I remember right, last year NM posted early and was before the deadline for Colorado. I was hoping it would happen this year again, but isn't looking good..

Nope, well after the Colorado deadline last year.

 

[Ten Bears]

typically a NM draw results release date prediction thread pops up soon with prizes. I believe last years winner scored some choice TP as it was in shortage at the time.

 

[Usi05]

typically a NM draw results release date prediction thread pops up soon with prizes. I believe last years winner scored some choice TP as it was in shortage at the time.

Can follow that trend and be Ammo this year! Lol


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[Daniel0307]

Yep well after the Colorado deadline, it will be April 20th something

 

[dreamingbig]

Since Colorado extended their deadline did New Mexico delay their draw?


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[RyanCmns]

Since Colorado extended their deadline did New Mexico delay their draw?


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Or maybe it will follow suit with Arizona.......


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[Gila]

My prediction for NM is the 21st. Good luck!

 

[vectordawg]

Not to sound like a dick, but most people are lazy and that's why they don't kill elk..

If you're willing to work at it, killing elk is relatively easy especially if you're not too picky.

They got into town 2 days before the season..



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If you're willing to work at it, killing elk is relatively easy especially if you're not too picky.





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I wanna hunt with this guy!