New Alaska Draw System Idea

[Legend]

Another thing that isn’t really talked about with the point system is the hunter who is now eligible to apply for hunts. Like children reaching the hunting age limit. In a point system there is almost no chance of ever being drawn bc they are so far behind in the system, and the guys who still haven’t drawn with mass points keep putting in even though they physically may not be able to hunt. So once the older generation of points phase out the new generation is starting to get to old, and so on.

Bison and muskox have been referenced multi times, their draw odds are in some units are better than what a goat or sheep hunt would be in most other states and most of those states have a point system. As a guy who has been putting in for tags in multiple states for over 10 years I can say without reservations point systems ultimately don’t benefit the large majority, like anything that gets inflated.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Bonus points systems are the opposite of youth hunting. One unit in MT where I ran the numbers had over 455,000 applications last year for 85 tags. If it stays the same this year there will be an additional 100,000 applications (because of squared bonus points). A new youth hunter is better off buying state lottery tickets.

 

[LivinGood]

So, what is your goal for proposing a point system? If it’s to increase YOUR odds of drawing a sweet tag, then it may work for you once…but once you burn your points you’ll be sitting out for the next decade or three trying to catch back up. Random draw gets my vote. My daughter drew a TMA tag the very first year she applied….I’ve put in for 30 and still haven’t drawn. Likewise, I drew a delta bison my first year of applying…….only in a random system can you have outcomes like this.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

I’ve drawn a couple good tags over the years and think the current system is fine for the most part. Was just gauging what others thought of a specific type of point system. Every year after results are announced you hear the call for a points system but nobody ever says what kind they’d want.

 

[MountainTracker]

Bonus points systems are the opposite of youth hunting. One unit in MT where I ran the numbers had over 455,000 applications last year for 85 tags. If it stays the same this year there will be an additional 100,000 applications (because of squared bonus points). A new youth hunter is better off buying state lottery tickets.

I agree youth have a better chance of drawing a youth designated tag as there are fewer applicants, and once they age out their points are not put back into the system. Once they age out of youth tags their odds of drawing are horrible, as they will be starting at the bottom in a larger more inflated pool.

Hope I’m explaining that correctly for conversation sake.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[bsnedeker]

Bonus points systems are the opposite of youth hunting. One unit in MT where I ran the numbers had over 455,000 applications last year for 85 tags. If it stays the same this year there will be an additional 100,000 applications (because of squared bonus points). A new youth hunter is better off buying state lottery tickets.

I'll be in the front of the line for that unit when I'm 105! Can't wait to get out there!

Sent from my SM-G998U1 using Tapatalk

 

[VernAK]

ADFG went through all of this less than a decade ago and the result was allowing up to 6 applications for each specie. If you want a drawing advantage, buy more chances.

States with a point system advised Alaska to avoid same.

With a point system, kids will lose interest in hunting before they accumulate enough points to get a tag. Old Phardtz like me would be 105 when we next draw a DCUA tag.

Issuing tags based on years of residency is unconstitutional. This was tried with PFD and challenged in court by the Zobels.

All tag winners do not get to hunt that tag for various reasons but that is factored into the quantity of tags offered. The Area Biologist for that hunt can provide the numbers for you.

 

[Alder_]

This is insanity.

There has been numerous iterations of points systems.
Bonus Points
Squared Bonus Points
Preference Points
Weighted Preference Points
Multi- Selection Preference Points

They all suck and dont actually increase your odds.

If you put in 6x and I put in 6x your odds are still 50/50

If you put in for 10 years and have 100 points
And I put in for 10 years and have 100 points
Your odds are still 50/50

 

[thinhorn_AK]

Leave Alaska the way it is.

This

 

[Bobbyboe]

I think there is a way to do a rewards point system and not screw everything up. Maybe it’s not as simple as carrying over your choices from year to year but there’s a way to implement a system that is fair but rewards people who are in it for the long haul.

Nope, not possible. If supply outweighs demand, there’s no point system that’ll work. Sure, it’ll benefit the guy who gets in of the ground floor, but beyond that, nope.

 

[Antares]

The random draw works fine. The real conversation is regulatory resident/nonresident tag allocations.

 

[bsnedeker]

Nope, not possible. If supply outweighs demand, there’s no point system that’ll work. Sure, it’ll benefit the guy who gets in of the ground floor, but beyond that, nope.

This is exacty right...the only people who benefit are the people buying points right from the get-go....they can then have the best chances to draw that premium tag as max. point holders. Once they get that first premium tag, they are down in the soup with everyone else.

Sent from my SM-G998U1 using Tapatalk

 

[william schmaltz]

As someone who can't even draw a stick person under the current system, and as someone who watches with extreme frustration as everyone draws a Kodiak bear/bison/sheep tag their first couple years moving here; I can't state it loud enough to please keep it the way it is. Mainly for mine and everyone else's kids.

If I could get onboard with anything, I'd like to see more data on the viability of wait periods after drawing and/or successfully filling some draw tags. Just watching how many more applicants I've seen on most tags in the relatively short time I've been here, I think that issue should at least be revisited. 5-10 years wait after successful musk ox. Draw any sheep/goat tag, sit out 4 years from all sheep/goat draws. 10 year wait after drawing kodiak bear tags. No additional wait time for moose or caribou besides the next year rule already in the books. Again, not really a proposal as I'm a data-driven person, but I think it would be worth running the numbers. Just with a quick look, it may be negligible in relation to draw odds increasing; but it's extremely negligible for bison hunts and we still implement it. And I'm sure there would be a fit about lost revenue.

 

[Legend]

Nope, not possible. If supply outweighs demand, there’s no point system that’ll work. Sure, it’ll benefit the guy who gets in of the ground floor, but beyond that, nope.

It's just this simple!

 

[Legend]

As someone who can't even draw a stick person under the current system, and as someone who watches with extreme frustration as everyone draws a Kodiak bear/bison/sheep tag their first couple years moving here; I can't state it loud enough to please keep it the way it is. Mainly for mine and everyone else's kids.

If I could get onboard with anything, I'd like to see more data on the viability of wait periods after drawing and/or successfully filling some draw tags. Just watching how many more applicants I've seen on most tags in the relatively short time I've been here, I think that issue should at least be revisited. 5-10 years wait after successful musk ox. Draw any sheep/goat tag, sit out 4 years from all sheep/goat draws. 10 year wait after drawing kodiak bear tags. No additional wait time for moose or caribou besides the next year rule already in the books. Again, not really a proposal as I'm a data-driven person, but I think it would be worth running the numbers. Just with a quick look, it may be negligible in relation to draw odds increasing; but it's extremely negligible for bison hunts and we still implement it. And I'm sure there would be a fit about lost revenue.

The wait period topic has been looked at in many state systems. In most scenarios the data analysis will show that it has little effect on draw odds where the odds are already low (i.e. small number of successful). Even if it is all the way to once in a lifetime allocation. This makes sense as you are only removing the small number of successful applicants compared to the entire pool.

However....that is just math and it does not address the potential equality issue. Hard to argue that someone who has drawn LE tags should get to draw again over those who haven't.

 

[SaltySailor]

I enjoy the thought of having the exact same odds as everyone else each year I put in. I have been putting my wife in for a decade and she has never won once, but she still has the same shot as everyone else, that's why I keep throwing my money into the hat each year. It sucks to get skunked, but I would rather pay money and have a shot every year, than to pay money for 10 years straight and not miss just to have a chance.

 

[LivinGood]

I think everyone is missing some key factors with this idea.

Just because the option will exist to bank six points across all species doesn't mean people will take it. Under the current system most applicants do not apply for all species available. Very few do in fact, and a lot don't apply all six choices to the same hunt. A lot of people take the shotgun approach and apply for six different hunts per species, thus only effecting the odds slightly for those six hunts.

People make mistakes on their draw applications every year which gets their choices thrown out for that species, thus resetting their points to 0 if that happens under the new system. That might not be a huge factor but it does have an effect on some hunt's odds I'm sure.

Then consider under this system that people cannot sit on their points while building them for a decade without applying each year then dump them all at once on a hunt. You have to risk your points every year you apply, and you have to apply to keep your points going. So, I think the people that apply six times for a sinlge hunt each year (The real point builders) won't accumulate more than a few years worth of points before drawing a tag for a species and resetting back to 0. Some lucky people might not ever accumulate many points becasue they draw a tag for a species every other year.

In 2022 5,103 applications were submitted for DS203 (Not individual applicants). So, knowing that not all applicants applied six times for that hunt, under the new system, that number won't be 10,206. Who knows what it'll be, more for sure, but not double.

The current system works fine, but it's fun to think of new ways to do things once in a while.

 

[Andrew12gauge]

I think everyone is missing some key factors with this idea.

Just because the option will exist to bank six points across all species doesn't mean people will take it.

Yes, they will. Look at any state with a point system and you will see that when the option for points banking becomes available, there are a lot of people lining up to ensure they aren’t left behind.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk