Montana preference points expiration

[CamoPirate]

Time to vote with your money.

 

[Mdfowlman2]

I’m curious as to what the draw odds will be em this year with 2 points

 

[Agross]

So forgive me if this is a stupid question. Our group of four bought a preference point last year. We are hunting with an outfitter this year. When we spoke to him a few weeks ago, He made it sound like we should just get the one preference point this year when we apply for our elk/deer combo And we should be good. But reading all this should we get the additional outfitter point this year when we apply, giving us the 3 point max?

 

[tntrker]

I’m curious as to what the draw odds will be em this year with 2 points

it was 99.98%, only 1 person with 2 didn't draw if I'm not mistaken. I have two now and I'm worried 3 wont make it this year with the Outfitter point addition to everyone that will apply this year having 1 point, purchasing a point AND adding an outfitter point to match my 3 points...there was 15,595 people with 1 point last year and 5,413 received a tag, so that means there are 10,182 people that APPLIED last year that can have 3 points this year. Not to mention the people, like me, that didn't apply at all....3 point wont be 100% this year. I hope my math is wrong....Just with the Big Game combo...

 

[jek5224]

So forgive me if this is a stupid question. Our group of four bought a preference point last year. We are hunting with an outfitter this year. When we spoke to him a few weeks ago, He made it sound like we should just get the one preference point this year when we apply for our elk/deer combo And we should be good. But reading all this should we get the additional outfitter point this year when we apply, giving us the 3 point max?

I think it is going to be very difficult to estimate draw odds for this year. For what it's worth, goHUNT has odds listed at 100% with 2 points, but I just don't see that happening. One post above noted that around 13k people did not draw with 1 point last year and that there is an unknowable number of people who will either have 2 or 3 points going into this year. Add to that the fact that someone who currently has 0 points but hunts with an outfitter this year can enter the draw with 2 points, and someone who decided last year to hunt with an outfitter this year can go into the draw with max points if they bought a preference point last year. I think there is a very realistic possibility that 3 points does not even guarantee a draw this year.

 

[fatlander]

I think it is going to be very difficult to estimate draw odds for this year. For what it's worth, goHUNT has odds listed at 100% with 2 points, but I just don't see that happening. One post above noted that around 13k people did not draw with 1 point last year and that there is an unknowable number of people who will either have 2 or 3 points going into this year. Add to that the fact that someone who currently has 0 points but hunts with an outfitter this year can enter the draw with 2 points, and someone who decided last year to hunt with an outfitter this year can go into the draw with max points if they bought a preference point last year. I think there is a very realistic possibility that 3 points does not even guarantee a draw this year.

FWIW, I think go hunt made a mistake with those numbers they have out right now. They’re identical to the last years statistics that are on the FWP website.

I don’t see how 2 points will be 100% when 13k didn’t draw with one point last year. There’s only 12,750 preference point tags.


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[Mdfowlman2]

it was 99.98%, only 1 person with 2 didn't draw if I'm not mistaken. I have two now and I'm worried 3 wont make it this year with the Outfitter point addition to everyone that will apply this year having 1 point, purchasing a point AND adding an outfitter point to match my 3 points...there was 15,595 people with 1 point last year and 5,413 received a tag, so that means there are 10,182 people that APPLIED last year that can have 3 points this year. Not to mention the people, like me, that didn't apply at all....3 point wont be 100% this year. I hope my math is wrong....Just with the Big Game combo...

That is assuming that everyone can buy the outfitter point

 

[Riplip]

So forgive me if this is a stupid question. Our group of four bought a preference point last year. We are hunting with an outfitter this year. When we spoke to him a few weeks ago, He made it sound like we should just get the one preference point this year when we apply for our elk/deer combo And we should be good. But reading all this should we get the additional outfitter point this year when we apply, giving us the 3 point max?

I am not sure that most of the outfitters truly understand the point situation, especially in light of all of the changes.

 

[Legend]

Are you guys saying that Hank didn't "simplify" our hunting regulations? He promised that is what he was doing.

I guess he was full of BS and was just trying to cater to the wealthy!

 

[Agross]

I am not sure that most of the outfitters truly understand the point situation, especially in light of all of the changes.

Right, that’s what I’m thinking. Maybe spending the extra $100 is a good idea. I was wondering that when he was telling us. The new regs weren’t out yet And he kept talking about last year and years past, I kinda wanted to say, it’s different this year. But again I don’t know enough about it so I kept my mouth shut.

 

[Mdfowlman2]

This is such bs, you get things in order and plan for 2pp to ensure you draw and they throw a wrench into things with this second point for outfitted hunters. Curious to see what the guidelines will be to be considered “outfitted”.

 

[Scoot]

What exactly is you point? They fight for it, the diy guys do our best to fight against it.

The difference, of course, is the outfitters and landowners have ahold of the purse strings of the politicians and have obvious and huge influence. The DIY guys, like me, are a bunch of unorganized individuals who just want to hunt. They aren't unified in any meaningful way and take it in the 2 hole constantly. What the DIY guys get Fd out of, the outfitters scoop up and happily accept as welfare. Then the following year, the outfitters association goes to work on the politicians explaining how what they were gifted (at the expense of the DIY hunters) isn't cutting it and they need more... and more... and more.

 

[Erict]

... I have two now and I'm worried 3 wont make it this year with the Outfitter point addition to everyone that will apply this year having 1 point, purchasing a point AND adding an outfitter point to match my 3 points..

Not worth worrying about - you will either draw or don't. I firmly believe 3 will be 100% this year for Deer combo, Elk combo and Big Game combo (Deer + Elk). Remember, last year the outfitters got a one time exception so that everyone with a contract had the option to buy a license - that was a "one time" thing. NR hunters who did so all got reset to 0 going in to this draw and can only buy 2.

 

[Erict]

I think it is going to be very difficult to estimate draw odds for this year. For what it's worth, goHUNT has odds listed at 100% with 2 points, but I just don't see that happening.

I do not think 2 PP will be 100% this year for any of the three license draws. But, to your point,estimating the draw this year will be very difficult. COVID closed the borders, so no Canadian hunters. Many states offered 100% online hunter education courses and probably added a good number of hunters to the ranks. Plenty of folks lost their job or got paid to stay at home so why not go to MT and hunt?

2021 compared to 2020 saw almost 7,000 more applicants for Big Game Combo (+38%), 2,000 more applicants for Elk Combo (+32%), 6,000 more applicants for Deer Combo (+43%). Will they come back for more in 2022? Who knows.

 

[Erict]

If you never saw this - public knowledge, so no secrets:

MT FWP Drawing Statistics Search
MT 2021 NR preference point stats for BG, Elk, Deer combo license draws
MT 2012-2021 NR Combo License stats

 

[Erict]

Curious to see what the guidelines will be to be considered “outfitted”.

The rules are:
A nonresident purchasing a second preference point pursuant to subsection (3)(a) shall provide
written affirmation at the time of application indicating the name and license number of the outfitter with whom the person intends to hunt. If the nonresident obtains the license applied for with the preference points purchased pursuant to subsection (3)(a), the nonresident may only use the license when accompanied by an outfitter or the outfitter's designee licensed to provide guiding services.

Last year, the printed licenses stated "ONE TIME OUTFITTED DEER COMBO", etc. This would be the way a game warden afield could more easily figure out if the hunter was "legal". Additionally, I was told that the outfitters last year had to also submit logs of their contracted hunters that, in theory, would have been matched to hunters applying for the "outfitter" exemption. Maybe someone here knows more about outfitter paperwork.

 

[Erict]

Not everyone has the skills, equipment or time to do DIY hunts and so outfitted hunts are a good option. If you save up for years to hunt in a state far away it can increase you odds. Let's say you contract with an outfitter in a good Elk area with no deer. You put in for the Big Game Combo (Deer + Elk) hoping to do some public land hunting in SE Montana on the way home. It appears you can't do it because "the nonresident may only use the license when accompanied by an outfitter or the outfitter's designee licensed to provide guiding services."

Not allowed - must hunt with guide:
Hunt with Outfitter Deer, DIY Elk - not allowed, must hunt with guide
Hunt with Outfitter Elk, DIY Deer - not allowed, must hunt with guide
Hunt with Outfitter Elk or deer, don't kill one, so want to stay in state to DIY for a few days - not allowed, must hunt with guide

Allowed with appropriate license:
DIY Deer
DIY Elk
DIY Deer + Elk
Hunt with Outfitter Deer
Hunt with Outfitter Elk
Hunt with Outfitter Deer + Hunt with Outfitter Elk

 

[Deucebump]

Ok, so I have read this entire thread, and there is a TON of great and almost overwhelming info here. I have hunted MT off and on for 15yrs as a NR, always as a DIY guy. I drew a deer tag last year and hunted, therefore I am at zero as of today. (Deer combo only, no interest in elk) If I am understanding this correctly, none of this effects the antelope draw at all, correct? The reason I ask is, Im 99% sure I have enough points to draw an antelope tag this year, but wasn't planning on hunting MT at all. If Im not going to lose those points, Ill just buy a deer pt and go to another state. If I risk losing the antelope points, what is my best bet to draw a deer tag this year??? (I prefer to do it as a combo to maximize my time into the trip) Apply without buying the point at time of app and go in with zero, or buy the point at app time and hope for the best?

 

[KINGSNAKE]

We and my partner bought points the past 2 years. Can we buy a point this year and have 3 points to draw a tag this year or do we just have the two points going into the draw. I was not planning on applying this year but if we don't we loose our points so I guess we're now trying to get a.deer tag for this crazy state.

 

[tntrker]

That is assuming that everyone can buy the outfitter point

The outfitter is no more cost than a prefrence point

We and my partner bought points the past 2 years. Can we buy a point this year and have 3 points to draw a tag this year or do we just have the two points going into the draw. I was not planning on applying this year but if we don't we loose our points so I guess we're now trying to get a.deer tag for this crazy state.

You can purchase a point when applying this year for your 3rd point, correct.