Montana bonus point math for premium units

[Johnny Tyndall]

I was poking around the Montana Bonus Point FAQ and thought the example they gave was interesting.

• In 2023, FWP issued 100 380-20 elk permits. 10,668 hunters applied.
• Those 10,668 hunters had a total of 57,772 bonus points.
• If you square the bonus points, that equals 612,605
• Then add in all of the 2023 application (10,668).
• The total number of chances in the 2023 drawing for 380-20 elk permits were 623,273.
• If you had been applying for 20 years, and had 20 bonus points, you would have 401 chances in the 2023 drawing.

They don't do the last step, which is to say that If you have been building bonus points for 20 years and are applying for 380, you have a 0.06% chance of drawing. That's about 1 in 1,500.

Point creep is real. Wish they'd publish total bonus points for all units, although I've mostly given up that game.

Edit: I did the math wrong. Correct odds are more like 6% in the example above. Still not great, but way better!

 

[mtwarden]

Bonus points in the scheme of things don’t matter much. It’s like buying a handful of lotto tickets—your odds go up very little when you have a shit ton of people buying tickets.

From a resident who’s been applying for sheep and goat unsuccessfully for over 30 years ;(

 

[Mighty Mouse]

They don't do the last step, which is to say that If you have been building bonus points for 20 years and are applying for 380, you have a 0.06% chance of drawing. That's about 1 in 1,500.

Montana FWP is awarding 100 tags in this example. Each time they draw a name, the odds of it being your name are (approximately) 0.06% (401/623,273). But when they repeat that process 100 times, your cumulative odds of being drawn grow to 6.23%…not great but much better than 0.06%.

The (approximate*) formula for figuring odds in this type of draw is:
1 – (1 – Number of Times Your Name Is in the Hat / Total Number of Entries in the Hat) ^ (Total Number of Names Drawn)

In this example, your cumulative odds would be: 1 – (1 – 401/623,273)^100 = 0.0623 = 6.23%

*Approximate because in this type of draw, the denominator in the formula (“Total Number of Entries in the Hat”) decreases each time a name is drawn, so the odds of it being your name next increase each time someone else’s name is taken out of the hat. In this particular example, the applicant pool is so large relative to the number of tags awarded that the effect of the shrinking denominator will have negligible impact on your total odds of being drawn.

 

[Johnny Tyndall]

Montana FWP is awarding 100 tags in this example. Each time they draw a name, the odds of it being your name are (approximately) 0.06% (401/623,273). But when they repeat that process 100 times, your cumulative odds of being drawn grow to 6.23%…not great but much better than 0.06%.

The (approximate*) formula for figuring odds in this type of draw is:
1 – (1 – Number of Times Your Name Is in the Hat / Total Number of Entries in the Hat) ^ (Total Number of Names Drawn)

<snip>

Thanks for the correction. Maybe I should keep building points....

 

[robby denning]

yip OP, and it's that way everywhere.

Bonus/Preference points are so 1990.

It's why I keep fighting for our OTC. Points are the road to nowhere unless it's mediocre at best tags.

 

[Mighty Mouse]

yip OP, and it's that way everywhere.

Bonus/Preference points are so 1990.

It's why I keep fighting for our OTC. Points are the road to nowhere unless it's mediocre at best tags.

I would tend to agree that points are pretty much pointless for ultra high demand tags. Using preference points, the wait time required to reach the top level gets ridiculously long (e.g., 30 years and counting for Colorado elk). Using bonus points, the applicant pool is so large relative to tag quota that each incremental point barely moves the needle. Those kind of tags should be random draw (with a once-in-a-liftetime provision or lengthy sit-out period) IMO.

But I can see the merit in points-based draw systems for low-to-medium demand tags. Points give some measure of predictability to the draw.

Ultimately the same number of folks (in the aggregate) will be satisfied/unsatisfied regardless of how tags are awarded. Switching from points to straight random or FCFS doesn’t create more tags. It seems to
me that many point-haters are convinced that they’d be swimming in premium tags if only the crusty old point-hoarders were stripped of their advantage*. In reality, demand for premium tags far exceeds supply, and the vast majority of applicants will be disappointed regardless of the method used to distribute the tags.

*I’m not necessarily ascribing this view to you in particular, just stating a common sentiment I’ve noticed in draw system discussions.

 

[robby denning]

I would tend to agree that points are pretty much pointless for ultra high demand tags. Using preference points, the wait time required to reach the top level gets ridiculously long (e.g., 30 years and counting for Colorado elk). Using bonus points, the applicant pool is so large relative to tag quota that each incremental point barely moves the needle. Those kind of tags should be random draw (with a once-in-a-liftetime provision or lengthy sit-out period) IMO.

But I can see the merit in points-based draw systems for low-to-medium demand tags. Points give some measure of predictability to the draw.

Ultimately the same number of folks (in the aggregate) will be satisfied/unsatisfied regardless of how tags are awarded. Switching from points to straight random or FCFS doesn’t create more tags. It seems to
me that many point-haters are convinced that they’d be swimming in premium tags if only the crusty old point-hoarders were stripped of their advantage*. In reality, demand for premium tags far exceeds supply, and the vast majority of applicants will be disappointed regardless of the method used to distribute the tags.

*I’m not necessarily ascribing this view to you in particular, just stating a common sentiment I’ve noticed in draw system discussions.

I wouldn’t argue with any of that, but I was referring to over-the-counter tags. Which are getting more rare these days.