Milton

[GSPHUNTER]

I live in So. Cal. the threat of an earthquake is something we live with. I have an emergency generator, gas and propane, 50 gals of water, MRE's, battery/crank radio, and a lot of other things we will need to hold us over for several days. But more than any of that, the people who are in the track of Milton had better heed the warning to get out.

 

[deltadukman]

Praying that there isn't immense loss of life. Seems like this could end really poorly for those that stayed.

I don't understand what the long game is for the New Orleans, Tampa Bays, etc. of the world. Basically the areas more prone to flooding that are bound to get hit by storms like this. This sounds really callous as I know people call these places home and have deep ties there - but at some point doesn't society determine that the amount of money going into rebuilding coastal areas is not worth it? There is such a mind-numbing amount of money that flows into the aftermath of these storms. I just always wonder when the average citizen will decide that the money isn't worth it, and when the market may do the same (real estate folks, hotels, restaurants, etc.). I guess there will always be a desire to enjoy the beaches, food, etc. of coastal regions, so there has to be infrastructure there, but it just seems like an inevitable cycle of re-build, destruction, repeat. Just something that I've often thought about. I don't know what the answer is...

Praying for the safety and health of all impacted by Helene and now Milton.

By that thought we should abandon all of the Western Mountain towns due to wildfires(which are semi manmade due to their logging practices/agenda but we won't get into that), or maybe places where they have mudslides annually. What about big urban cities where millions are spent on gang violence that kills more annually than all the hurricanes in a geographic area will in a lifetime. These cities were built because of their locations and business, not on tourist destinations. New Orleans is a shit hole, but the Oil & Gas industry in South Louisiana(south of New Orleans) is mind boggling how large it is and how many people it feeds and employs.

 

[TxxAgg]

Any updates on the storm? I don't watch the news much.

 

[bigbassin]

Any updates on the storm? I don't watch the news much.

As far as what’s being reported so far, seems like a good bit of flooding, downed trees, and downed power lines. Luckily it sounds like it didn’t generate the storm surge that was anticipated, but it still dropped 16” of rain.

 

[Phaseolus]

I’m down just north of Daytona for my Brothers wedding. Lots of rain and wind, the power is out but very little damage where my Mom lives. The center of the storm went almost directly over us after crossing Florida. Neighbors carport went flying about 2am.

 

[Nine Banger]

I think we will see a lot of reckoning in the next 20-30 years related to towns that proliferated naturally thru capitalism but the original inhabitants had no intention of staying long and it just got away from everyone.

300 years ago no one built their houses on the beach or in low areas. You went to the beach or went camping and then went home to your house on a hill in the middle of yard which served as a fire brake.

The insurance industry and lending industry have created this mess hand in hand.

We live and work on barrier islands. There is a town to the east of us that's under water called Morris Island. There's another town to the southeast of us that's under water called Eddingsville. I believe this will happen again but it takes a while to play out. We have the machinery to do beach renourishment and move inlets now but if the inhabitants lose interest in these activities or run out of money or if they stop issuing permits for these tasks, its game over.

A lot of those towns in NC ruined by Helene started as logging decks that haphazardly turned into big towns that probably shouldn't be there or be as developed as they are.

 

[Rich M]

Woke up this morning after sleeping thru, err surviving Milton. Still have power.

Glad this thing went pretty easy on most folks. Those in low lying areas and who got nailed by tornadoes will have a diff story. God bless them.

 

[Crghss]

It passed to the north of me. Some tornados around my place but no damage to my house. Crazy how many tornados popped but it happen’s.

Got real lucky it weakened to a cat 3. Still no joke but could’ve been lot worse for folks in Tampa.

 

[Loper]

Yes, thankfully it didn't bring a ridiculous amount of storm surge that was anticipated. Also since the hurricane weakened before landfall and that it shifted south it probably didn't do as much damage as it could have. The tornados appeared to cause a lot of damage though.

 

[TaperPin]

I guess there will always be a desire to enjoy the beaches, food, etc. of coastal regions, so there has to be infrastructure there, but it just seems like an inevitable cycle of re-build, destruction, repeat. Just something that I've often thought about. I don't know what the answer is...

It took me a while to wrap my head around the economics of it, coming from a construction background of building things to last 100-200 years it seemed silly to rebuild in a place that will surely get wiped out again.

Our oldest ended up in the outer banks and we were looking at buying a condo near the beach - the thing that impressed me was how nice communities look after a hurricane and all the rebuilding. After looking at historical trends and local building codes it eventually sunk in that property owners factor in the anticipated lifespan of their buildings as being much more limited than other areas. It’s just a fact of life in the worst areas every ten years it’s likely that even a new building built to current codes will require significant repairs, and in 20 years it’s likely to be totaled, and anyone assuming a beach house will last 30 years is kidding themselves. That makes beach front properties less attractive to retire in, and better suited as vacation rentals that pay for themselves quickly. Owners of income properties there seem to think of wiped out areas as opportunities to just build more rentals.

Some people will build in flood planes even if it makes no long term sense, but they do what they can afford and it must be human nature to have a short long term memory.

 

[Jake Larsen]

It took me a while to wrap my head around the economics of it, coming from a construction background of building things to last 100-200 years it seemed silly to rebuild in a place that will surely get wiped out again.

Our oldest ended up in the outer banks and we were looking at buying a condo near the beach - the thing that impressed me was how nice communities look after a hurricane and all the rebuilding. After looking at historical trends and local building codes it eventually sunk in that property owners factor in the anticipated lifespan of their buildings as being much more limited than other areas. It’s just a fact of life in the worst areas every ten years it’s likely that even a new building built to current codes will require significant repairs, and in 20 years it’s likely to be totaled, and anyone assuming a beach house will last 30 years is kidding themselves. That makes beach front properties less attractive to retire in, and better suited as vacation rentals that pay for themselves quickly. Owners of income properties there seem to think of wiped out areas as opportunities to just build more rentals.

Some people will build in flood planes even if it makes no long term sense, but they do what they can afford and it must be human nature to have a short long term memory.

Without insurance companies, none of it would exist. I wonder about the future of those kinds of places…at what point does the cost of insuring one of those properties go up enough that the construction loans lose their viability?

 

[Phaseolus]

Well it was fun, peak winds in Ormond Beach were about 100 mph and we got 22.5” of rain. Power was out for 58 hours and this Colorado Boy didn’t like the humidity without air conditioning. I’ll be happy to be back in Western Colorado on Wednesday. This Florida stuff is for the birds.

 

[Nine Banger]

Without insurance companies, none of it would exist. I wonder about the future of those kinds of places…at what point does the cost of insuring one of those properties go up enough that the construction loans lose their viability?

I was thinking about this while we were driving around central Florida this weekend.

Generations ago affluent folks went to the beach for the day or weekend and then went back to the mansion on a hill in the middle of a field somewhere. Good land was used for ag production. Poor folks lived in the swamp.

Today the wealthy build right on the water.

Meanwhile a lot of the "good" land has been built up with apartments and median income housing.

Where will the wealthy escape to when their location is eliminated or becomes insolvent?

 

[Nine Banger]

I was thinking about this while we were driving around central Florida this weekend.

Generations ago, you went to the beach for the day or weekend and then went back to your mansion on a hill in the middle of a field somewhere. Poor folks lived in the swamp.

Today the wealthy build right on the water.

Meanwhile a lot of the "good" land has been built up with apartments and median income housing.

Where will the wealthy escape to when their location is eliminated or becomes insolvent?

I bet the wealthy will land on their feet as they always do, but the folks in these high price areas that are just keeping up appearances will be financially ruined.

 

[ScottP76]

We need a moratorium on developing and building in our state. I’m not opposed to growth but damn they really need to fix more of the infrastructure before they keep going. They got to do something about this flooding. The Withlacoochie is still rising days after Milton. Sorry to get on a soapbox. I love this state but when I retire in 8 years we’re gone.

 

[TaperPin]

Without insurance companies, none of it would exist. I wonder about the future of those kinds of places…at what point does the cost of insuring one of those properties go up enough that the construction loans lose their viability?

We have friends in Northern California who can’t get fire insurance, so you’d think it would really drive down the value of anything built in that area, but people love it and prices are still ridiculously high. A lot of people are fat with cash and don’t mind self insuring to live there. New construction in the area are over engineered fire resistant houses on lots with better defenseable space.

I imagine beach properties without insurance would be the same, although new construction would be a collection of more expensive over engineered buildings, set back a little further.

 

[Jake Larsen]

We have friends in Northern California who can’t get fire insurance, so you’d think it would really drive down the value of anything built in that area, but people love it and prices are still ridiculously high. A lot of people are fat with cash and don’t mind self insuring to live there. New construction in the area are over engineered fire resistant houses on lots with better defenseable space.

I imagine beach properties without insurance would be the same, although new construction would be a collection of more expensive over engineered buildings, set back a little further.

I guess there’s enough people who don’t HAVE to make decisions based on what’s economically viable. Wish I had that problem hahaha


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[TaperPin]

I guess there’s enough people who don’t HAVE to make decisions based on what’s economically viable. Wish I had that problem hahaha


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I had to laugh - a wealthy client wanted a small walk out deck off his second story man cave so he could sit out there and smoke cigars. It was in a really hard spot to add onto for a small 6’x8’ deck - round up and say it’s 50 sqft. If construction costs were $1k per sqft that would be $50k, but it ended up being close to 8x that! The most expensive thing I’ve worked on per sqft. lol

 

[EastHumboldt]

I had to laugh - a wealthy client wanted a small walk out deck off his second story man cave so he could sit out there and smoke cigars. It was in a really hard spot to add onto for a small 6’x8’ deck - round up and say it’s 50 sqft. If construction costs were $1k per sqft that would be $50k, but it ended up being close to 8x that! The most expensive thing I’ve worked on per sqft. lol

Did I read that right? 400k for a 6x8 deck?

 

[TaperPin]

Did I read that right? 400k for a 6x8 deck?

Yes, It was totally ridiculous. This place was really tall, really steep roofs with a lot of zigs and zags - the roofline above and on the garage below had to have framing modified to flow together right, a first floor arched walk through had to be built under it, which required moving windows, lots of stucco, paver design had to be redone leading up to the new walkthrough, all new copper gutters had to be fabricated for 2nd floor and the deck, modifications on every part we touched were pretty crazy. We hated every minute of it since everything was tedious - the neighbor saw it and wanted to do the same thing - we told the contractor only if we’d get twice as much, and one coworker said nope, not at any price would he work on another. Lol