Manufacturer supported ammo forecasting

[Sled]

I'd like to hear your thoughts about on the shelf cartridges that we be here in 30 years and ones that won't. In a world of fancy new cartridges and dying old ones, who's going to make it?

I'll start with my thoughts...
My favorite 270wsm is dead as a doornail and the 6.8 western will follow suit. Since the 6.5 prc and 7prc are knocking on the door.
223 rem will be here for a while more
6.5CM seems to be staying for a bit.
Not sure if 7rem mag and 300win mag will stay even though they're proven survivors.
300prc seems ready to knock off the last wsm on the shelf.
7mm-08 and 308, who knows.

So, what are your thoughts?

 

[Axlrod]

Meh
I have enough components to last me for most barrels i own. I will rebarrel to something else if needed. The weatherman can't tell me what the weather will be in 3 days, no way anyone can predict the future with any accuracy.

 

[rabbithuntr]

There’s no way to tell the future but I see current trends continuing with Hornady cartridges taking a large share from their competitors. I would like to see the ARC cartridges become popular and less expensive, at least affordable available brass.


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[thinhorn_AK]

Impossible to say. Regardless, I stick to things that seem like a safe bet and I’m not really interested in anything “new” unless there’s a real benefit to it.

The most “unique” cartridge I shoot is 6.5 creedmoor which I believe is here to stay. Other than that, 30-06, 308, 300wm and 223 are what I’m all about.

I still have and shoot my 375HH but even that seems to be going away. New quality brass is tough to find, bullet selection isn’t great and expensive when you find it and I can’t seem to find any of the powder I really like to shoot. I have enough 375 supplies to kill a moose and a few bears each year for the next few decades but I’ll probably be moving away from that cartridge as well.

 

[hereinaz]

Hornady does the marketing to make cartridges stick. Gun makers love it. They build rifles because of it. They research the market and make smart choices to educate shooters. Success begets success.

Their cartridges will be around with 223, 308, 30-06, and the others like .243, .270, 25-06 will fade but very slowly and not likely fade into obscurity in anyone living’s lifetime.

 

[Thegman]

In 30 years the only thing people will be using is 223 and 77TMKs...

 

[thinhorn_AK]

In 30 years the only thing people will be using is 223 and 77TMKs...

And 6.5 creedmoor. Every rifle manufacturer makes at least one model in that chambering, every ammo company has ammo, reloading supplies are readily available (other than primers) and most silencer companies (at least companies worth buying from) offer 6.5 silencers or end caps.

 

[justin davis]

I’m hoping in 30 years we are still allowed to even own a gun in this country. The way democrats are running things. The future is scary for our kids

 

[Lou270]

223, 30-06, 30-30, 7 rem mag, 270 Win, 308 Win, 6.5 creedmoor, 243 Win, 300 Win will be there. Too popular for too long and too many rifles out there for these to not remain so.

The new rounds cannabilize each other before they get anywhere near the realm of popularity of the “standards”. Some PRCs, Westerns, Noslers et all will become moderately popular like the 300/270 wsms and be available. The new round that has chance to be in first group is 277 sig fury since it has military adoption. May take a while to get in production but once kinks are out it will be popular and it’s derivatives (6.5,
7, 30…) will take over the “in spot” of the current fast twist stuff

Lou

 

[Sled]

Hornady does the marketing to make cartridges stick. Gun makers love it. They build rifles because of it. They research the market and make smart choices to educate shooters. Success begets success.

Their cartridges will be around with 223, 308, 30-06, and the others like .243, .270, 25-06 will fade but very slowly and not likely fade into obscurity in anyone living’s lifetime.

This makes sense to me. Hornady seems to take their new cartridges further than other ammo manufacturers that seemingly give up after the first year or two. Which one gets the same support and favor as the 6.5CM?

 

[Unckebob]

6.8W not dead.

This makes sense to me. Hornady seems to take their new cartridges further than other ammo manufacturers that seemingly give up after the first year or two. Which one gets the same support and favor as the 6.5CM?

I don't think Winchester will give up on the 6.8 Western anytime soon.

 

[hereinaz]

Nothing will take off like 6.5 creedmoor. It really was the “.308 replacement” meaning different enough to change people’s minds.

I don’t know that there is anything special about what they need to do, it’s about making something better, and then tweaking it to satisfy different tastes.

The 6 creedmoor is awesome, but will be niche. It hasn’t grown as a hunting round, so I don’t know whether they will release the 22 creed. I think the 22 creed could actually sell more to hunters.

The 6.5 PRC was a magnum version that did for long range what the creedmoor did for .308 sized cartridges. That really was big enough shooting the 140-150 class bullets to replace nearly every other magnum for hunting purposes, including long range.

I mean, the 7 Rem mag shoots nearly the same weight bullet with lower BC. I am talking factory SAAMI of course,

But, the “muh 300 boomer crowd” would not switch, so they released the 300 PRC. Then, because the 7 has been shown to be a solid long range hammer and easier to shoot with the 180-195 class bullets (which are the same size as many 300 win factory loads) they released the 7 PRC.

The 6.5 Grendel was a big enough hit, but is still a really niche and not long range capable.

So Hornady came out with the 6 ARC and now rhe 22 ARC which make much more sense out of an AR15 and give long range capacity.

The 6.5 Grendel is shooting 123 grain, lower bc. You can shoot the much higher BC 6 and 22 bullets and get velocity on top of it.

You’ll see every new cartridge by Hornady is the new entry into a new category. Long range capable with the improved case shape for precision and brass life.

I don’t know whether they will release a long action cartridge, I can’t see any reason to cannibalize from the creedmoor and PRC.

But, I wouldn’t be surprised. It would kill the 6.5 x 284 and 280 ai if they did. There are lots of long action rifles out there. It would probably be smart to let time pass so they get their PRC and ARC out there. They only have so much production capacity.

 

[hereinaz]

6.8W not dead.


I don't think Winchester will give up on the 6.8 Western anytime soon.

I think it will stick. It’s a solid performer and the anti-creedmoor for those hunters that get turned off by Hornady.

They just need to get a little more attention from rifle companies and ammo makers. That’s why Hornady is the 2000 lb gorilla that gets so much attention, it demands attention and everyone likes a winner.

 

[Unckebob]

Nothing will take off like 6.5 creedmoor. It really was the “.308 replacement” meaning different enough to change people’s minds.

I don’t know that there is anything special about what they need to do, it’s about making something better, and then tweaking it to satisfy different tastes.

The 6 creedmoor is awesome, but will be niche. It hasn’t grown as a hunting round, so I don’t know whether they will release the 22 creed. I think the 22 creed could actually sell more to hunters.

The 6.5 PRC was a magnum version that did for long range what the creedmoor did for .308 sized cartridges. That really was big enough shooting the 140-150 class bullets to replace nearly every other magnum for hunting purposes, including long range.

I mean, the 7 Rem mag shoots nearly the same weight bullet with lower BC. I am talking factory SAAMI of course,

But, the “muh 300 boomer crowd” would not switch, so they released the 300 PRC. Then, because the 7 has been shown to be a solid long range hammer and easier to shoot with the 180-195 class bullets (which are the same size as many 300 win factory loads) they released the 7 PRC.

The 6.5 Grendel was a big enough hit, but is still a really niche and not long range capable.

So Hornady came out with the 6 ARC and now rhe 22 ARC which make much more sense out of an AR15 and give long range capacity.

The 6.5 Grendel is shooting 123 grain, lower bc. You can shoot the much higher BC 6 and 22 bullets and get velocity on top of it.

You’ll see every new cartridge by Hornady is the new entry into a new category. Long range capable with the improved case shape for precision and brass life.

I don’t know whether they will release a long action cartridge, I can’t see any reason to cannibalize from the creedmoor and PRC.

But, I wouldn’t be surprised. It would kill the 6.5 x 284 and 280 ai if they did. There are lots of long action rifles out there. It would probably be smart to let time pass so they get their PRC and ARC out there. They only have so much production capacity.

The 7mm PRC is their long action cartridge.
- The 6.5x284 is dead (it just doesn't know it).
- the 280AI is a handloaders cartridge for people like me who like to be different.

 

[hereinaz]

The 7mm PRC is their long action cartridge.
- The 6.5x284 is dead (it just doesn't know it).
- the 280AI is a handloaders cartridge for people like me who like to be different.

Yeah, I should have been more clear. I was meaning like the 30-06 long action, standard bolt face, competing with the 30-06 and .270 old school.

I think the 6.5 x 284 will keep going like the 280 ai. I know guys who handload it like the 280 ai.

I would love to see a 257 cal creedlong like the 25-06, that would be dope and not compete with the creed and prc.

 

[Choupique]

I can tell you that 338 win mag went from lots of availability and lots of options to neither one in like a 6 month timespan in the covid days. I suspect it can be said for lots of other medium bores. Ammo companies are big companies and are run by the accountants like any other. When the tacticool calibers are moving boxes out the door that's what gets made and sold.

One things for sure, if hornady backs it you'll have ammo for it.

 

[Sled]

Well, the popularity shift might be coming. Down the road we could all be small caliber shooters if the Rokslide community convinces the rest of the world to start zipping small caliber match bullets into animals. I know my larger caliber rifles have worked their way to the back of the safe. Supply and demand drive markets and people sure like to pull the trigger more often with lighter recoiling rounds.

 

[SW hunter]

I think gun dorks like you all, and me too, forget that not everyone is like us caught up in fps and caliber arguments or newest or most interesting chamberings.
Theres a lot of fudds out there. Im not convinced theyre buying into the same intrigue we may. They get calibers for ammo they sell at walmart. Something their dad or grandad shot. They want 308 or 30-06 or 270 or 243 or 7mm or 300wm. Those aren't going anywhere.
But also they dont own a big safe full of guns usually. More like 4 or 5. In my experience.
Also any caliber used by the military isnt going anywhere or getting scarce. Theres still 80yr old 30-06 ammo floating around on occasion. It will be same w 308 and 223 for 50 more years at least.
But also I dont think fudds buy near as much ammo as gun dorks. That must count for something.