Liberation Day

[MuleyFever]

Lawsuits have already been filed. Trump issued these tariffs under the Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977, but, reportedly, that is a statute that authorizes presidents to order sanctions as a rapid response to international emergencies. The IEEPA reportedly does not allow a president to impose tariffs on the American people. It also questionable if "the whole world" (*except for Russia) is not too broad of a use to justify being a threat to national security.

There are also a number of reports that the Trump admin used Chat GPT or similar AI platform to generate the tariff math. I haven't tried it for myself, but apparently if you reverse engineer these tariffs, you find an oversimplified calculation that several major AI chatbots happen to recommend and you can recreate each of the White House’s numbers by simply taking a given country’s trade deficit with the US and dividing it by their total exports to the US. Halve that number, and you get a ready-to-use “discounted reciprocal tariff" which happens to align with what was presented in the Rose Garden. If you happen to plug these numbers into Gemini, you apparently get a page full of explanations as to why this oversimplified approach could backfire along with the formulas.

At this moment, it is difficult to imagine that many companies will take any sort of immediate measures to move production as there are simply too many unknown variables. Will the tariffs last days, months or years? Does the president actually possess the power to issue these tariffs? Will they be undone as fast as they were implemented. Will they survive midterm elections? Will they survive a 4 year admin cycle? Is 4 years enough to justify reinvesting in production vs. riding out a global recession? All unknowns.

This was taken during the tariff kickoff meeting at the White House where they set initial tariff numbers.



I do think there was a chart that showed some tariff math from the White House.

 

[chanson_roland]

For those asking, here's my *personal* experience doing international business for 25+ years as to why governments use tariffs on US goods:

1. They're deathly afraid of competition from *better* US products, and put tariffs up to get their own citizens to buy domestic, inferior products. That doesn't work long term, as consumers find ways to smuggle/barter/ship the better products into the country anyway.

2. They want to stimulate the creation of a domestic industry in a sector they want to be in, but aren't good in. So, they use tariffs to try to buy time for that industry to become credible. That also doesn't work, and eventually the country with the tariff gives up or is negotiated out of that position because capital will flow to the best allocator, not just anyone who wants to be in a certain sector.

I've seen both with computer software and hardware.

Example: Back in the day, if you traveled to Brazil with a laptop, they'd try to hit you with a massive import tariff, even if you were there for a few days. The goal was to get you to buy a Brazilian-made computer, which of course, sucked balls.

The workaround: Tech companies lobbied their trade representatives to change the policy, in exchange for doing more investment in Brazil to employ locals in the tech sector.

The net net is that tariffs themselves don't do anything except increase prices to consumers in that local market. The real work is done through bilateral negotiations between countries/trade blocs.

A blanket world wide tariff regime doesn't do that, but creates a global price shock. You're taking a microeconomic issue and turning it into a macroeconomic one.

That's why the stock market is reacting the way it is.

Just my $.02

 

[Idaboy]

Their talking about 500-700 billion in "potential" tariff revenue.....the market just lost 2.3 trillion in one day......whatta mess

 

[Predator_SD]

if tariffs don’t work why do so many other countries have large ones against the United States?

We don’t talk about that round here.

Trump bad

 

[rodney482]

Their talking about 500-700 billion in "potential" tariff revenue.....the market just lost 2.3 trillion in one day......whatta mess

can gain that back in just one day too

 

[rodney482]

we are the world’s largest consumer of goods…. The customer is always right

 

[TaperPin]

Frankly, it's mathematically illiterate and lazy.

Well said.

Where is congress? Why are they enabling this behavior?

 

[Dos Perros]

How come no one is championing this effort as a kick in the balls to the wealthiest 1%, who undoubtedly consume more than us regular joes? It's a tax on them just as it is a tax on us. A tax they can't avoid.

 

[Idaboy]

Well said.

Where is congress? Why are they enabling this behavior?

In theory, I get the question. In practice, have we seen anyone in congress stand up to this administration? We have devolved into a parliamentary system with our "congress"

 

[TaperPin]

In theory, I get the question. In practice, have we seen anyone in congress stand up to this administration? We have devolved into a parliamentary system with our "congress"

I’m just thinking out loud - you’re right, they pretty much gave up trying to actually do their job years ago.

 

[KurtR]

To be honest has congress done anything in the last 50 years. They are a main factor in why we are now in the position that we are.

Still see lots of criticism with a couple who offer thought out ways that we fix the house of cards that the US is financially living in . Most responses are just Orange man bad.

 

[rodney482]

23K views · 1.1K reactions | Trump is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers. | By M.A. | Facebook

Trump is playing chess while everyone else is playing checkers.

www.facebook.com

 

[Poser]

We don’t talk about that round here.

Trump bad

It’s been addressed at least twice in this thread. Most recently in post # 303.
(It’s also apparent that y’all are asking this question in the form of a fallacy, so it’s a bit of devolution into circling the drain type conversation that goes nowhere other than y’all just keep asking the question over and over again in a “gotcha” manner as if nobody has considered that perspective).

 

[downthepipe]

Incredibly, yesterday, every online news organization except one had Liberation Day and tarriffs and the resulting market reaction as the main headline covering their website. That one claims to be the most watched / read. Incredible. Today, it remains way below other “headlines”. I wonder why? It’s the only thing being talked about at work.

 

[NDGuy]

To be honest has congress done anything in the last 50 years. They are a main factor in why we are now in the position that we are.

That much we can all agree on

 

[TaperPin]

How come no one is championing this effort as a kick in the balls to the wealthiest 1%, who undoubtedly consume more than us regular joes? It's a tax on them just as it is a tax on us. A tax they can't avoid.

The reason billionaires are cheering from the sidelines is the administration is going to use tariff income, which is primarily paid by the working class, to offset tax breaks for that top 1%. It’s not a secret - look into the budget and how large the tax breaks for the wealthy are. Billionaires have used conservative talk radio, pod casts, NewsMax, Fox News, X and Truth to convince followers it’s a great idea to give them tax breaks. Anyone that says don’t believe anyone except for me, give me blind loyalty, distrust everyone else, sacrifice your own well being, and put down anyone who disagrees is convincing you to be gullible.

 

[KurtR]

The reason billionaires are cheering from the sidelines is the administration is going to use tariff income, which is primarily paid by the working class, to offset tax breaks for that top 1%. It’s not a secret - look into the budget and how large the tax breaks for the wealthy are. Billionaires have used conservative talk radio, pod casts, NewsMax, Fox News, X and Truth to convince followers it’s a great idea to give them tax breaks. Anyone that says don’t believe anyone except for me, give me blind loyalty, distrust everyone else, sacrifice your own well being, and put down anyone who disagrees is convincing you to be gullible.

So what would your strategy be to dig the US out of the financial hole that past generations have now put us in.

 

[chanson_roland]

The reason billionaires are cheering from the sidelines is the administration is going to use tariff income, which is primarily paid by the working class, to offset tax breaks for that top 1%. It’s not a secret - look into the budget and how large the tax breaks for the wealthy are. Billionaires have used conservative talk radio, pod casts, NewsMax, Fox News, X and Truth to convince followers it’s a great idea to give them tax breaks. Anyone that says don’t believe anyone except for me, give me blind loyalty, distrust everyone else, sacrifice your own well being, and put down anyone who disagrees is convincing you to be gullible.

Most of the people I know worth $100M or more are pretty frugal, especially the self-made ones. Their consumption as a percentage of their net worth is a fraction of that of the average citizen. Also, once you reach a certain wealth level, your wealth manager has you hedged in alternatives, private debt, etc.

No one who is truly wealthy is freaking out about the market selloff.

They're waiting for a payoff on the back end. Especially if tax policy reduces capital gains on M&A events, IPOs, etc.

 

[NDGuy]

No one who is truly wealthy is freaking out about the market selloff.

Average joe foots the bill and pain, every time

 

[Predator_SD]

It’s been addressed at least twice in this thread. Most recently in post # 303.
(It’s also apparent that y’all are asking this question in the form of a fallacy, so it’s a bit of devolution into circling the drain type conversation that goes nowhere other than y’all just keep asking the question over and over again in a “gotcha” manner as if nobody has considered that perspective).

Sorry, some of us work and have no idea what was said in post #303.

That’s why we have you to update us and keep abreast of what was posted/answered back in post #303, thanks for that.

I start at 0900, so 5 minutes. Ill check with you for updates as to what occurred in my absence upon my return.