Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

[FLATHEAD]

As I've gotten older, and closer to retirement I've started paring down my Western attempts.
And inflation is not helping anything.
I'm down to one Western state (NM), which is the closest drive. One tag, any tag and I'm happy.
Otherwise, I'm content here on the Gulf Coast with lots of fishing, deer, hogs, and waterfowl
opportunities.
So far this year I've already caught my PB Blue Cat and Redfish. Tomorrow will see if I can
catch a huge Speckled Trout.
But yes, Western Hunting has become an expensive hassle.
Good luck in the draws everybody!!

 

[hunterjmj]

I don't apply for out of state tags/points but I've done some fun out of state hunts for a fun experience. Went pig hunting in North Carolina, whitetail hunting in Nebraska, sheep hunting in Alaska. Won't do these same hunts again but will try something new that sounds fun and I can afford. As much as I'd like to hunt mule deer all over I'm pretty content with all the opportunity in my home state.

 

[HawkeyeHunter]

Is it just me, or can some of you guys just learn to let crap go instead of turning everything into a pissing match. This is a thread about the western hunting bubble…no one gives two craps about your truck, or truck payment, or financial advice in this thread. Discuss that elsewhere if you have to.

 

[realunlucky]

Stay on topic people

Sent from my SM-G996U using Tapatalk

 

[grainhog]

The site hasn’t exited for 12 years I don’t think…. Gen z is surly bright enough to do a google search for hunting info. Most results will be linked to the forums here.

Do a search for Arizona otc deer and it’ll direct you to the site.

I never looked for it, because for the first half of my hunting career I insisted I figure everything out myself with as little information from outside sources as possible. I've since relaxed that constraint done, and in any case i guess there's no reason to expect self sufficiency to rank especially highly on a 23 year old social media addict's list of motivating factors.

 

[Cedarsavage]

I’ll add this bit of anecdotal information.

When I started this thing I didn’t have any kids. Wife and I both made six figure incomes so there was no problem buying gear, tags, gas, etc. If I wanted it, I could buy it, within reason.

I’ve got a 3 yo son now and my wife is dropping to part time in another month. Things were already tightening with inflation and they are about to get tighter by choice. I just dropped almost $1200 last night on my elk tag for Montana. I’ve got another $1050 on a credit card for WY and put another $130 on it for CO points. Once everything has shaken out I’ve budgeted about $1500 for tags/points total.

I’m thankfully in a position where I can pretty much work OT when I need it. If I A) didn’t already have the gear or B) didn’t have the ability to work OT there would be no way a western hunt would be in the budget this year given how inflation has been and our rising costs of living.

I’m just one guy, but given my age (mid 30s) I’m willing to bet a lot of the people who got into it in the last few years are in the same boat, and the barriers to entry for those who might be interested are rising.

ETA probably 80% of my disposable “me” money, not to mention a ton of valuable vacation time, is gonna get spent on one DIY elk hunt. Few guys are willing to make that sacrifice for something that usually involves a lot of suck for a few IG posts.

I had been staying at a mediocre job with a ton of time off because of the time off, and I could afford to do a lot of cool hunting. With inflation being what it is my lavish lifestyle shrunk and I took a much better paying job with a lot less time off. Now I have the money again and no time, lol but I'd bet there's someone else like me. I think alot of people are either gonna shrink their "play" budgets or take on a new job or second job and either way lives are changing for most of us. Some people probably have the bandwidth to keep playing or at least use credit cards to keep playing awhile.

 

[wapitibob]

Hi Bob - Pls correct me if wrong - we all have to buy the points later in the year cause they don't give em if we don't get selected.

So, these would be the guys who didn't draw and can likely be added to the number of successful tag purchasers to get the total demand???

These are the people who are just sitting on the sidelines waiting to apply at some future date or may have only sat out for the year. They don't show on the demand report but they are included in the year end "total points" reports. Those reports will show total available applicants at each point level going into the next year.

 

[rodney747]

Maybe those guys are just smart and replacing their gear once every year or two, at a 5% cost.

From the "almost new" gear, especially clothing I've been able to buy for 50-60 cents on their dollars spent I very seriously doubt ANY of them are getting 95% of investment back.

 

[Okhotnik]

THIS^^^

svb, frc and other banks.....
trading halts today, almost all bank stocks

Trade Halts - Current

gonna be some hurt in the future


Look to defaulting soon on all of the loans to buy those toys. I predict less NR hunting pressure here in the US and Canada next few years

 

[mtnbiker208]

I ran into more non residents last year than in the last 5 years combined. It is growing in my mind, not shrinking.

 

[mighteywhitehunter]

I have been hoping we hit the peak and are on the backside of this BS.... but like everyone else is saying there are apparently a lot of people who are millionaires and don't work.

 

[wapitibob]

I ran into more non residents last year than in the last 5 years combined. It is growing in my mind, not shrinking.

The last 20 years shows NR demand is going one direction despite the economy, price hikes, and internet forum predictions.

 

[RocketRob16]

As a young gentleman in Arkansas here is my perspective. Duck, deer, and turkey hunting is as popular as ever with most of those being kids in my age bracket (16-30). Public land, especially for duck and turkey is flat out CROWDED. Our NR crowd that comes for ducks is ever growing thanks to social media. Resident numbers are still growing at the same rate as well and for the same reason. Most quit duck hunting on public or altogether around the age of 30. It’s a young man’s/rich man’s game and the BS adds up over the years. I’m 26 and starting to think about giving it up. And I’m a die-hard, love it like crazy, and would hate to quit.

As far as western hunting goes, I try to do a western trip every year. This year it’s Nebraska turkey as “play” money has dwindled with the inflation/economy and it is much cheaper than elk or mule deer. However, I have no plans to quit anytime soon. The total cost of gear is much cheaper than duck hunting if factoring in a duck boat and most of it I can use around here for various trips and hunts.

One interesting note is that I rarely ever see anyone chase small game anymore. I would wager that small game hunting has dwindled drastically in the last few decades. Not sure if that is also the case out west.

 

[SoloWilderness]

Do you actually believe that or is just something that has been said so many times it has become “true?”

I hunt way harder than my grandpa did, but I am just a lazy millennial. My wife’s cousins hunt way harder than I do and they are just that lazy, follow the fad gen z.

Don’t forget that a lot of the previous generation gave up hunting when they took the deer hunts out of the rut. Were lazy and not dedicated?

If we are simply going to say that hunting is just cool and it will fall off, I think we are at the bottom of that mountain looking up.

I have a half dozen Gen Z guys at work that ask for all my old hunting magazines and are in my office all the time drooling over pictures of elk and high mountain camps on my screensaver. These guys bust ass at work, don't know it would be any different in the woods once they got their feet wet. These are young guys making pretty solid money already, and their income has a ton of growth potential. They won't get priced out anytime soon. I think the demand will continue, especially as food prices continue to climb in the stores.

 

[String&stick]

Do you think that the generations behind it won’t fill the gap left as the baby boomers age out?

Personally I don't, not to the degree that boomers did anyway.

When you think about it boomers had their cake and ate it too. They had low cost education (subsidized by state and federal taxes), pension plans, cheap housing, and capital to take advantage of several "once in a lifetime" investment opportunities. Part of their advantage was timing. Part of it was them voting to make changes that fully benefited them at the cost of others.

The other side of it was, they had 3 channels on TV. . . So they went outside and played and learned hunting from their parents that hunted. They may have played sports in school but that's when they played them IN SCHOOL.

today's generations (gen X, Gen Y "millennials", and Gen Z) have student debt, extreme housing costs, kids whose sports seasons are year round, video games, 300 channels on TV, $65k pickups, etc.

So while the millennial generation is similar in size to the boomers, and some certainly have high disposable income. I don't see a 1 for 1 trade off in hunting. Personally I think we will see some COVID fall out of millennial hunters who shift back to golf, gaming, etc. We can't use Rokslide as a barometer as most here probably don't fall into the "average hunter" categories. But I fall in the camp of thinking my retirement 25-30 years from now, should have good opportunities if hunting isn't banned or completely commercialized by then.

 

[CorbLand]

Personally I don't, not to the degree that boomers did anyway.

When you think about it boomers had their cake and ate it too. They had low cost education (subsidized by state and federal taxes), pension plans, cheap housing, and capital to take advantage of several "once in a lifetime" investment opportunities. Part of their advantage was timing. Part of it was them voting to make changes that fully benefited them at the cost of others.

The other side of it was, they had 3 channels on TV. . . So they went outside and played and learned hunting from their parents that hunted. They may have played sports in school but that's when they played them IN SCHOOL.

today's generations (gen X, Gen Y "millennials", and Gen Z) have student debt, extreme housing costs, kids whose sports seasons are year round, video games, 300 channels on TV, $65k pickups, etc.

So while the millennial generation is similar in size to the boomers, and some certainly have high disposable income. I don't see a 1 for 1 trade off in hunting. Personally I think we will see some COVID fall out of millennial hunters who shift back to golf, gaming, etc. We can't use Rokslide as a barometer as most here probably don't fall into the "average hunter" categories. But I fall in the camp of thinking my retirement 25-30 years from now, should have good opportunities if hunting isn't banned or completely commercialized by then.

I could see a lot of what you are saying. The one thing I have been looking at is that pretty much every hobby is getting more expensive and/or crowded. Golf prices have gone up dramatically in the last 15 years. The lines at the ski lifts are getting longer every year. Rivers and lakes are full of people boating or fishing. I don’t really think people have anywhere to turn for something better.

Time will tell.

 

[Pony Soldier]

If hunting is really important, you will move there just like I did. I don't see many NR vehicles where I hunt. The ones I get to talk to are usually turn out to locals that moved away for a job or a wife. A tremendous number seem to move back in their 40s.
As the NR prices increase, finances will support it, a move will negate it or it may be time for a mid- life crisis and a divorce. Choices, choices and choices.

 

[eye_zick]

svb, frc and other banks.....
trading halts today, almost all bank stocks

Trade Halts - Current

gonna be some hurt in the future


Look to defaulting soon on all of the loans to buy those toys. I predict less NR hunting pressure here in the US and Canada next few years

Option 1.
The FDIC will appoint itself as Receivor for the failed bank(s).
The FDIC will immediately sell the assets to their fav bank, a JP Morgan flavor.
The Fed will print more money, leniency will be allowed for the acquiring banks, cash will freely flow. Lawsuits will follow but take a decade to be litigated and settled, long after any concerns have left our minds.

Option 2.
The FED will inject cash directly into the banking system, providing billions of dollars of liquidity.
The FED will create an LLC to buy and maintain the assets which are poor investments that JP Morgan type doesn't want. And the FED will own those loans.

Either way they aren't going to let trillions of dollars crash like they did in 2008.
The CARES act of 2020 is a great example. We printed trillions of dollars.

Hunting demand isn't changing.

 

[FLATHEAD]

I'm seriously looking at investing in land to get my money somewhere safe.
Not trying to get all Mason Jar in the back yard but not really trusting the Govt/Banks/Fed
at this point in my life.

 

[Okhotnik]

Option 1.
The FDIC will appoint itself as Receivor for the failed bank(s).
The FDIC will immediately sell the assets to their fav bank, a JP Morgan flavor.
The Fed will print more money, leniency will be allowed for the acquiring banks, cash will freely flow. Lawsuits will follow but take a decade to be litigated and settled, long after any concerns have left our minds.

Option 2.
The FED will inject cash directly into the banking system, providing billions of dollars of liquidity.
The FED will create an LLC to buy and maintain the assets which are poor investments that JP Morgan type doesn't want. And the FED will own those loans.

Either way they aren't going to let trillions of dollars crash like they did in 2008.
The CARES act of 2020 is a great example. We printed trillions of dollars.

Hunting demand isn't changing.

Will all of the printing of money cause inflation and increase the price of everything like it has done in the past?

How many hundreds if not thousands of banks around the world are in the red and upside down on all of the treasures bills they invested in a year ago when money was really cheap? This will take a while to correct