Is the western hunting bubble bursting? (Or at least shrinking?)

[MattB]

I think if we are not there, we are close to the top.

Everything has gone up in price. And now that money is actually worth saving (5% cd rates) more guys will elect to save money rather than spend it on recreation.

Yields being higher than inflation is a temporary circumstance, and ignores the amount of inflation which we’ve seen over the past few years - which for most has outpaced earning growth. As a result, most Americans will spend those dollars paying inflated prices for goods and services so they will not be available to be saved.

 

[Marshfly]

Yields being higher than inflation is a temporary circumstance, and ignores the amount of inflation which we’ve seen over the past few years - which for most has outpaced earning growth. As a result, most Americans will spend those dollars paying inflated prices for goods and services so they will not be available to be saved.

This is a great point. If you and the income earners in your family are not actively working on ways to make your income radically outpace inflation you are going to get left behind.

I amazes me the amount of people that complain about stagnant wages and increasing costs but do absolutely nothing to increase their earning capacity.


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[IdahoElk]

Yields being higher than inflation is a temporary circumstance,

What do you think the inflation rate is?

 

[Fever Buck]

I noticed that there were less hunters in Colorado for 2nd and 3rd rifle this season. My buddy who guides noticed the same thing. Hoping things slow down finally.

 

[MattB]

What do you think the inflation rate is?

The current U.S. inflation rate is ~3.25% for the 12-months ending October 2023 versus MMF yields which approach 5.00%.

What a lot of folks don’t understand is inflation for 2021-2022 was more in the 7% range and wage appreciation did lot keep up, and my point was that lots of people are quite a bit worse off than they were 3 years ago despite current yields exceeding states inflation.

 

[Rifleman86]

I noticed that there were less hunters in Colorado for 2nd and 3rd rifle this season. My buddy who guides noticed the same thing. Hoping things slow down finally.

I think OTC is the best predictor of future trends.

Even if the budget is tight, if you are on the cusp of getting the LE draw you want in the points game you aren’t going to give us the years that you put into it. You are either going to keep buying points or you are gonna put in for another tag you know you can get (WY general is a good example of this effect.)

Even if the trend is lower demand, it’s gonna take a while for the points/LE tags to feel it.

 

[garrett24]

I feel like the last five years has been the perfect storm for point creep/tag allocation.

We had people like Rinella/Newberg/Rogan popularizing western hunting, as well as a huge baby boomer population that had been buying points in multiple points for decades, a booming economy and lots of people with disposable income, and a Covid pandemic where hunting was one or the only things people could still do.

Covid is now over, the boomer generation is aging out of the game, the economy is in a recession, and we’re seeing a decline in tag allocation to nonresidents and an corresponding increase in tag price.

Are we going to see things like MT combo tags not selling out again?

I doubt it. But I feel like we’ve reached the peak. A lot of guys are going to say it’s not worth it anymore and find other things to do. Point systems will still suck no matter what because they are a Ponzi scheme, but some tags will get more available for guys that have been in the game for years.

I think some general tags will become more available for those willing to pay the price. Those of us who are perfectly fine hunting B tags, etc will still have plenty of opportunities to hunt every year.

I’ve had numerous friends that have gone on one or two hunts for the instagram posts realize that most elk hunting is just a shit load of work and suck with relatively low odds of success compared to let’s say, eastern deer hunting.

Either way, I think we’re finally on the backwards side of the bubble. Does that mean it’s going back to what it was in the 90s? Absolutely not, there has been a paradigm shift… But I think the worst of the bubble is over.

Anyone agree?

Sadly I don't think we are in the worst of things yet, I think we will see hunting become more of a rich guys sport, with the current political climate of re-introduction of wolves, poor forest management, large anti-hunting agendas I believe deer and elk numbers will fall w/ will lead to less tags. Unfortunately also and we have already seen it in the water fowl world you have very large outfitters and hunting ranches which push heards onto their lands and then charge a premium to hunt their lands. At least my experience in oregon

 

[307]

The Rogan effect is real but it will pass.

 

[Rich M]

Hunting is already a rich guy sport.

If you fly or drive out west, you are using expendable money.

If you shoot 1,000’s of rounds of ammo then you burn up whatever it costs.

If you cant afford it you dont go. There is no requirement for western hunting to be affordable. It is cheaper to go to Africa in many instances.

 

[mt terry d]

The current U.S. inflation rate is ~3.25% for the 12-months ending October 2023 versus MMF yields which approach 5.00%.

What a lot of folks don’t understand is inflation for 2021-2022 was more in the 7% range and wage appreciation did lot keep up, and my point was that lots of people are quite a bit worse off than they were 3 years ago despite current yields exceeding states inflation.

I cant think of one thing we've purchased in the last 4 years that has only jumped 7% in a year . Many things 50-100%. And they're not things that fall under the heading of "expendable income".

Isn't it about time for another "quantitative easing" or "stimulus package"?
$33 Trillion? pfft. How can it continue?
"Hold my martini and underage sex toy" saith the selected officials.

 

[ozyclint]

This is a great point. If you and the income earners in your family are not actively working on ways to make your income radically outpace inflation you are going to get left behind.

I amazes me the amount of people that complain about stagnant wages and increasing costs but do absolutely nothing to increase their earning capacity.


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Care to share your strategy to radically outpace 10% inflation? Work 10 jobs?

 

[Marshfly]

Care to share your strategy to radically outpace 10% inflation? Work 10 jobs?

Change companies. Learn new skills to increase your earning power. Start a side hustle. Tons of people consistently increase their income by way more than 10% annually year after year but they actively work to do so.

Never in history has it been easier to radically change your income than today. Learning new skills and finding opportunities is easier than it ever has been. That doesn’t mean it doesn’t take work, planning, and goal setting however.


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[mt terry d]

And those on fixed income? Those who have saved are penalized. Intentionally.

Inflation is the tool used to steal wealth from Mr American Abjectus

 

[Marshfly]

And those on fixed income? Those who have saved are penalized. Intentionally.

Inflation is the tool used to steal wealth from Mr American Abjectus

What is fixed income? There are very few people that do not have the ability to learn how to make more income.

The only thing fixed is mindset.

You can choose to play the game in a way that enables you to win or the game will play you. Everyone has a choice there.

 

[Douglasr]

Western hunting is played

 

[mt terry d]

What is fixed income? There are very few people that do not have the ability to learn how to make more income.

The only thing fixed is mindset.

You can choose to play the game in a way that enables you to win or the game will play you. Everyone has a choice there.

Retired.

Inflation is a game you are forced to play.

 

[Marshfly]

Retired.

Are you not managing your money so it grows and the income you can take from it grows as well? People should be. I know quite a few retired people that do just that. Leaving a job does not in any way absolve you of the RESPONSIBILITY to manage your money well.

If someone messed up for decades and simply doesn’t have enough money that’s their own fault.

“Fixed Income” is an excuse IMHO. That might seem harsh but it’s not. It’s the truth.

Leaving your money management to a “manager” is simply foolish. It’s your money. Spend the time to learn to make it work for you.


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[rodney747]

Are you not managing your money so it grows and the income you can take from it grows as well? People should be. I know quite a few retired people that do just that. Leaving a job does not in any way absolve you of the RESPONSIBILITY to manage your money well.

If someone messed up for decades and simply doesn’t have enough money that’s their own fault.

“Fixed Income” is an excuse IMHO. That might seem harsh but it’s not. It’s the truth.

Leaving your money management to a “manager” is simply foolish. It’s your money. Spend the time to learn to make it work for you.


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Totally agree on the money manager! They’re a dam joke. If they had fool proof plans they’d be using their own money and not be making a small commission on their “good deals”. It ain’t rocket science and if I was able to do it on my own most others can too!!

 

[Marshfly]

Totally agree on the money manager! They’re a dam joke. If they had fool proof plans they’d be using their own money and not be making a small commission on their “good deals”. It ain’t rocket science and if I was able to do it on my own most others can too!!

Money managers are simply commissioned salespeople for mutual funds. It's that simple.

Something people need to realize, not just realize, but totally understand and live by; nobody cares about you and your family. NOBODY. Nobody is coming to save you if you mess up. It is your responsibility ALONE to ensure the wellbeing of your family. It's only you. That's it. You are responsible for making sure that your family gets fed, your kids are educated, your wife is happy, and that you have enough money to live a comfortable life until you die. That is ALL on YOU. YOU must do whatever it takes to accomplish those things. WHATEVER. IT. TAKES. PERIOD. Zero excuses.

 

[InkedElkSlayer]

Is the bubble bursting? I argue that back and forth with myself.

I think total hunter numbers (and percentage of the population that hunts) has decreased from decades ago. BUT, today’s hunters are willing to spend more, travel further and apply in multiple states. “Statistically”… there may be fewer hunters, but with so many current hunters applying for multiple states, species and tags, the result is that demand for western units especially has gone up considerably.

Question is, what does 5+ years from now look like? There are a couple groups that will reduce some numbers.
1). When everyone went absolutely completely f-cking insane during The Corona, thousands of adult onset hunters flocked to go hunt dot com and starting applying for 7 different states. Odds plummeted, and states like Idaho went from surplus general tags to coveted overnight. I am sure some will stick with it, but I also think many will fade away due to all the usual things that happen ($, marriage, kids, work, don’t draw shit, hunt 5 years and don’t kill anything, rather fish in nice weather…).
2). Another group that will fade out are the guys that have been in the game for some time, have a bunch of points, and their plan is to burn their points on 1 more hunt, then they’re gonna be done with that state/tag/etc. I am in that boat in WY.

While I do believe that quite a few folks are going to phase out, question is, is the influx of newbies going to equal (or exceed) the folks that got out? Then… overlay the fact that even if demand drops from the current high, what is supply doing? For quite a few species/states/etc. that answer seems to be that supply is going down.

So who the hell knows. I’d have to think demand for some of the shitty general tags like ID, MT, etc. will trend back down. Their demand has gone up and down before. But I absolutely do not see a future where The AZ Strip mule deer tag, or the Missouri Breaks ram tag, is any easier to draw.