Is the current high tag demand a bubble that will crash in the next 10 years?

[alexnelon]

The real bubble that hasn't hit the surface is point sitters. CO, Wy.... Wyoming(elk) had 62k NR with 5 points or more, 42k are 6pts or above, but a general tag was almost guaranteed at 5pts. That's alot of people not applying...

Wyoming has a lot of guys playing the game where they buy points for their wife, mom, sister, brother, uncle, cousins, neighbor, and then just cycle through the list to average the points on a group app with one of those people every year to guarantee a general tag.

With you and 5-7 other people's info it's automatic and buying 6 points and 2 tags every year is still cheaper than the special draw and obviously way better odds because you get tags every single year.

 

[alexnelon]

I think the only CO archery tags you can get as a second choice are just the old OTC units.

Which was over 20 units last year, and will likely be closer to 75 units in 2025.

 

[Dos Perros]

Which was over 20 units last year, and will likely be closer to 75 units in 2025.

Meh. Y'all can have em.

 

[Szwampdonkey]

You gotta be just a baby if you think a 60yo has only 4-5 years tops

My ole man is 75 and still giving em hell.

 

[Szwampdonkey]

There is a whole slew of 20 somethings and teenagers that are getting into or already are hunting, I don't see any decrease in the number of hunters in the foreseeable future.

They all have the attention span of a gnat though and spend their whole time out there watching Youtube’s on their phones. They never last long.

 

[alexnelon]

You gotta be just a baby if you think a 60yo has only 4-5 years tops

My ole man is 75 and still giving em hell.

Props to him but he's definitely the exception. Most of the older hunters I see (especially NR over 60) look more like Jimmy John than Corey Jacobsen.

Only about 60% of men even live to 75, much less are still carrying elk off the mountain.

 

[H@mstar19x3]

Hunter numbers are declining. It feels like there are more hunters than ever because of thing social media and state game agencies funneling people into the same areas. But, the trend is down with a slight bump during COVID.

 

[WCB]

No, If game populations increased perhaps it wouldn't seem so exclusive. I just told my wife yesterday. If you want to hunt something other than Whitetails we need to do as much of it as possible now. My though is in 10 years Elk and Mule deer opportunities will be almost non existent without multi year plans. Everything else will outprice most people but there are plenty that will still pay it to keep the prices going higher.

Hunter numbers are declining. It feels like there are more hunters than ever because of thing social media and state game agencies funneling people into the same areas. But, the trend is down with a slight bump during COVID.

That is all fine and dandy but name something other than whitetails with large population growths or expansion the last 10 years...

 

[alexnelon]

No, If game populations increased perhaps it wouldn't seem so exclusive. I just told my wife yesterday. If you want to hunt something other than Whitetails we need to do as much of it as possible now. My though is in 10 years Elk and Mule deer opportunities will be almost non existent without multi year plans. Everything else will outprice most people but there are plenty that will still pay it to keep the prices going higher.

That is all fine and dandy but name something other than whitetails with large population growths or expansion the last 10 years...

Elk populations in the U.S. have roughly doubled since 2005.

 

[H@mstar19x3]

No, If game populations increased perhaps it wouldn't seem so exclusive. I just told my wife yesterday. If you want to hunt something other than Whitetails we need to do as much of it as possible now. My though is in 10 years Elk and Mule deer opportunities will be almost non existent without multi year plans. Everything else will outprice most people but there are plenty that will still pay it to keep the prices going higher.

That is all fine and dandy but name something other than whitetails with large population growths or expansion the last 10 years...

You're right. I am just pointing out the facts are hunter numbers continue to decline. I do believe that part of the anti-hunter strategy is to introduce enough predators to hammer populations to the point they stop hunting due to reduction in tags to the point that people just quit. Hunting ends "naturally" when there aren't enough hunters or opportunities to teach the next generations.

 

[CMF]

My though is in 10 years Elk and Mule deer opportunities will be almost non existent without multi year plans. Everything else will outprice most people but there are plenty that will still pay it to keep the prices going higher.

With multi state/multi year plans, I don't think you'll have trouble hunting mule deer elk for the next 20 years. I'm already doing a hunt every year and have more points than I need in two states for what I want to draw. That's not even counting MT that could be drawn every year or 3.

 

[Beendare]

We all can feel the demand for tags is through the roof. Point creep is a nuisance. Tags in general are just way harder to get than they used to be and every ridge has 5 guys on it. States are changing how they allocate tags, increasing fees, all sorts of things trying to "fix" things.

How much of the increase in demand is permanent though? Honest question I haven't seen addressed anywhere.

Nearly 40% of hunters are over 60 years old. Most of these guys have 4-6 years left on the mountain at the most so by 2030 (at current recruitment rates) there will be ~300,000 fewer non-resident hunters across the west and by 2035 it could be down by half a million from current numbers. I know (anecdotal evidence take with salt) several guys who are currently planning their "last elk hunts" over the next 3 years and planning to burn all their points in CO, WY, and AZ.

Are states aware of this and trying to milk this demographic while they still can? The Arizona and Colorado changes make a lot more sense through this lens since there are so many high point holders who will age out (or pass away) long before they have the points to draw the units they've been chasing for 30 years. So adding weighted random chance and forcing guys to burn points will at least do something that affects these guys, while still giving the younger guys a reason to keep applying once the old timers start burning points and turn every 5 point unit into a 15 point unit for 5 years.

Is non-resident demand for tags really going to be cut in half in 10 years? What will the repercussions be?

60 is the new 40 bro.....


FYI, I'm 67. I backpacked in solo for 8 days and hauled my elk out many miles in 2024.
I think your aging out comments are off base. I plan on elk hunting into my late 70's.

IMO, the tag situation is going to get worse. The good units will continue with point creep making some of those units that I drew every few years back in the day...to a once in a lifetime hunt.

Who would have ever thought 20 years ago elk tags in the Gila would sell for $30k and governor elk tags would go for over $300,000?

 

[diamond10x]

I don't think it will crash but it'll shift to something else. like everything in life, there are trends and fads. Right now the fad is elk hunting followed by "western" hunting. Before that was midwest whitetails. Before that it was moose and caribou.

 

[wapitibob]

WY hasn't had a decrease in NR E/D/A apps yet. I'm sure this will be the year, like last year , and the year before, and the year before that.

 

[willfrye027]

There are no secrets anymore. Big picture information is easily available..what state, unit, etc. it has changed the landscape..but good hunting is still absolutely available, every year. Get a tag and hunt a little differently than everyone else.

 

[Macintosh]

Hunter numbers are declining. It feels like there are more hunters than ever because of thing social media and state game agencies funneling people into the same areas. But, the trend is down with a slight bump during COVID.

Nationally yes, hunter numbers are declining or flat depending on the timeframe you look at. But look at the actual per-state number of hunting licenses sold I linked-to a page or teo ago in this thread—most of the western states saw double-digit % increases in licenses sold during the 5 year period. So literally BOTH things are true: hunter numbers in the western us are increasing significantly, while at the same time hunter numbers nationally are down or flat.

 

[OMB]

60 is the new 40 bro.....


FYI, I'm 67. I backpacked in solo for 8 days and hauled my elk out many miles in 2024.
I think your aging out comments are off base. I plan on elk hunting into my late 70's.

IMO, the tag situation is going to get worse. The good units will continue with point creep making some of those units that I drew every few years back in the day...to a once in a lifetime hunt.

Who would have ever thought 20 years ago elk tags in the Gila would sell for $30k and governor elk tags would go for over $300,000?

Not to single out any one reply, but there's a lot of observations in this thread that are anecdotal such as "I see lots of 20 somethings getting into the sport" or "I'm still going to be elk hunting at 75." Those are all valid observations, but there's actual peer reviewed research out there that that shows those things to simply not be true. This is from 2016, and I'd love to see how the models have played out 9 years later, but almost every age cohort of hunters has shown a steep decline at age 70.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/disappearance-hunting-fishing-loren-chase/

Some of the the slipping away of the Baby Boomer generation is going to be offset with more people hunting more states, less tags available for a variety of reasons, population growth in the West, etc etc. I'm not an R3 advocate whatsoever, so don't take it that way, but there's most likely not a 1:1 replacement happening.

 

[Szwampdonkey]

Props to him but he's definitely the exception. Most of the older hunters I see (especially NR over 60) look more like Jimmy John than Corey Jacobsen.

Only about 60% of men even live to 75, much less are still carrying elk off the mountain.

Create a poll asking how many guys are still hunting well over 60. Guarantee youll be surprised. I know about a dozen guys between 60-75 still hunting like there’s no tomorrow. All my friends are in their 50s same thing. Seems to me the guys you don’t see much of are the twentysomethings. Where are those dudes at? Playing video games?

 

[Szwampdonkey]

Not to single out any one reply, but there's a lot of observations in this thread that are anecdotal such as "I see lots of 20 somethings getting into the sport" or "I'm still going to be elk hunting at 75." Those are all valid observations, but there's actual peer reviewed research out there that that shows those things to simply not be true. This is from 2016, and I'd love to see how the models have played out 9 years later, but almost every age cohort of hunters has shown a steep decline at age 70.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/disappearance-hunting-fishing-loren-chase/

Some of the the slipping away of the Baby Boomer generation is going to be offset with more people hunting more states, less tags available for a variety of reasons, population growth in the West, etc etc. I'm not an R3 advocate whatsoever, so don't take it that way, but there's most likely not a 1:1 replacement happening.

They clearly didn’t include my old mans and my uncles circles of influence.

 

[Tmac]

Nope. No 10 year bubble imo. Just look at the demand numbers. 50 tag premium units often attract several thousand apps, 20-80 years of pent up demand in many cases. Units with several hundred tags commonly have 2-10x that number of apps. Not even going to mention OIL tags. So no, I don’t agree it’s a bubble, but if it is, it's gonna set a world record for the longest bubble ever measured. My money says the pop, if it ever happens, will be way in the future. I’ll be dust by then I bet.

Consider this, for MD, populations struggle in more areas than they thrive now, tags have come down in many units. Even as hunter numbers may decline, seems the resource has been following. AK caribou, most MD, anyplace hammered winter of 22-23, the list goes on. No crash in 2035 demand I can see. As in all things, I could be wrong, but on this one I doubt I am.