Is the current high tag demand a bubble that will crash in the next 10 years?

[Dos Perros]

The people just getting started today are happy if there are only two dozen trucks at the trailhead. It's nuts. It's only going to get worse.

 

[jlong17]

No.

 

[LongWayAround]

I think the factors at play will largely cancel each other out and continue to create a scarcity.

The older guys age out and are perhaps replaced at a slower rate.

Opportunity will continue to diminish.

More people are willing to travel and plan multiple trips. Just look at the application thread.

It may get a little "better," depending on your lens. The old days of easy tags are going to continue to be a memory.

 

[Dos Perros]

If tags get easier to draw you'll just get a larger inflow of new participants.

 

[dieselchessy]

As hunting in states like Washington goes down the drain those hunters more and more look to other states to hunt. Concentrating demand.
As other states reduce non-res tags demand increases.
As game populations drop, tag numbers drop and demand increases.

I don't see it getting better any time in my life. Im in my 40’s and its been a downward trend in the west my entire life.

Now days it seems influencers are moving more and more to black bear hunts. Probably because those are the tags they can get these days.

 

[parshal]

I know all the stats says the average hunter is older but do not see that when I'm in the field. I'm 55 and nearly everyone I see is much younger. This is big game as well as bird hunting. Maybe it's because I'm out west and not a whitetail or turkey hunter?

I don't see it getting better at all. Just like fly fishing. It exploded in the 90's and the rivers are still just as packed with fisherman.

 

[Rich M]

today is always the best hunt of the rest of your life.

We will lose land and access.
Animal populations will go down.
There will be less tags and more guys trying to get them.

I live in FL and have steadily lost opportunity over the past 30 years. Harder to get permits. More folks. Quota points. Irresponsible game management.

overall things arent gonna get better. Dont get sucked into some idea that things will get better.

 

[MuleyFever]

I think the factors at play will largely cancel each other out and continue to create a scarcity.

The older guys age out and are perhaps replaced at a slower rate.

Opportunity will continue to diminish.

More people are willing to travel and plan multiple trips. Just look at the application thread.

It may get a little "better," depending on your lens. The old days of easy tags are going to continue to be a memory.

This is also what I see. Hunting opportunities are not fixed. Every year the opportunity in the western states changes and for the most part the opportunities shrink. Declining animal numbers are significant and that leads to tag cuts. So as hunters age out they will not be replaced at equal rates but the combination of some replacement hunters and less opportunity will be a wash. It was also mentioned that as some states lose opportunity faster hunters will venture to other states creating more concentrated demand in some areas.

 

[Jimmy]

I see the people hunting several states as usually having kids and getting their kids into it. So for almost every guy that ages out, two more take his place.

Sometimes I look at people that hunt their own state, and multiple other states and think that maybe that is hurting hunting. Maybe having tags easier to draw for the locals and kids that live there would be better for hunting... I'm sure this thought won't be popular on a hunting forum...

 

[TaperPin]

Just like concert and sporting event tickets, prices will go up. Have rediculously expensive tickets resulted in empty seats? For those who can afford it the odds of drawing will be better, and for those who are priced out it doesn’t matter what the odds are.

 

[Trogon]

The thing is that looking at demographics of hunters in general, there are no where near enough younger people to replace the ones aging out regardless of finances or free time.

And so far, statistically, people don't start hunting after they retire.

This sounds like R3 propaganda that I hear at RMEF banquets. Anyone who hunts every year can tell you this is 100% false. Every single year pressure gets higher as more people hunt the same areas. I can say it is this way across Colorado without any doubt. LOTS of young people. As many or more than older hunters. There is also more habitat pressure with housing development and oil/gas. Then mismanagement of predators. Then loss of state land. This is all leading to declining quality in general units and will increase demand for good tags.

There will never be a decrease in demand for the very best tags.

 

[IdahoBeav]

The number of nonres applications, resident populations, and OTC tags switching to controlled will all continue to increase, and one day residents in western states will need to travel out-of-state to hunt whitetails if they wish to hunt every year.

 

[goathunter]

I know all the stats says the average hunter is older but do not see that when I'm in the field. I'm 55 and nearly everyone I see is much younger. This is big game as well as bird hunting. Maybe it's because I'm out west and not a whitetail or turkey hunter?

I don't see it getting better at all. Just like fly fishing. It exploded in the 90's and the rivers are still just as packed with fisherman.

Agree. And I think flyishing exploded way worse after 2020/21 than from "the movie" in the 90s. But besides COVID that may be related to "that show". Are people that impressionable? I don't think everyone moved to Texas in the early 80s when "Dallas" was a hit.

 

[Dos Perros]

If you look at the stuff the influencers were saying 8 or 9 years ago it has really changed.

Hunt Arizona every 5 years. Hunt WY general every other year. Draw a bomber tag in NM every 6 years. Montana general used to be a back up plan if you didn't draw the permit you could get most years. CO OTC was a back up plan if you didn't draw your second choice.

The 'thing' that was sold back then just aint even close to being a thing anymore. And people still pile into this sport every year. They all put money in Sitka and Hoyt executive's pockets. Few of them actually get what they thought they were going to get.

 

[Snowwolfe]

Demand will not decrease as the population increases. It will only become more difficult and more expensive.
The brother of one of my close friends was told not to go to Africa to shoot the "big 5" in the middle 70's as it was to expensive (under $30K all in). Now it is virtually impossible to do at any price.
Don't for a second think you are being smart by trying to wait it out for less pressure and lower priced tags.
It aint gonna happen unless half the USA croaks.

 

[AnnualRye]

Hunting demand, especially out-of-state will go down surely because PeOPlE cAnT aFfOrD mIlK and eGgS. Haven't you heard? Only the bare essentials; no tags.

Now, back to buying a bunch of sh*t I don't need on Amazon...

 

[tboltz34]

I don't believe it's as much doom and gloom as some are saying. Covid caused a massive increase in hunting, especially western hunting. I believe that demand will subside with enough time. Western hunting is hard and once those new hunters realize it, they will drop out. I started western hunting in 2020 and 2 of the 4 from the original group have already dropped out because of that reason (Yes, I know I'm part of the group that caused this craze).

Looking at data from the Colorado NR draw, there were less people reentering by applying AND buying points at the zero point level. I expect this to continue.




Montana is a better state to understand change in demand because with their NR preference point system, they purge points if the individual doesn't apply every other year - reacting faster. GoHunt shows an IMPROVEMENT in draw odds for the general tag.



I'm excited to see New Mexico's draw data after this year since there isn't a point system. If I remember correctly, last year there was a small increase in applications. I expect that to be the peak and there will be a small decrease this year.

Overall, I do believe there will be less hunter due to people aging out. However, people are committing to applying in more states. Point creep is likely to continue because the demand will likely always outpace supply. But I do think the demand will slowly decrease.

 

[atk629]

I doubt it. If I had to bet money on it I'd say this will be the new normal going forward.

 

[The_Jim]

Its not going away with less hunters - just check out this thread.

How many states do you apply in?

Application season is upon us. How many states you guys submitting apps in? Personally, I’m in for three MT, AZ, NM

rokslide.com

 

[rayporter]

do you guys saying that there are large numbers of young hunters to replace us ol farts still see schools canceling class for deer season?