Idaho Bonus point system

[WRO]

What will your sons and daughters do when they start hunting a state that has max points over 40? Over 60? Not good for current hunters. Horrid for new hunters arriving to a long established system.

Hunt tags you can actually draw.

Chase OIL’s on the random.

Random or not, some tags will always have astronomical odds.

 

[WRO]

A point system won’t make your buddy any more likely to draw an antelope tag. The issue isn’t points it’s the reality that there are very few tags and lots of applicants. There isn’t a rifle tag in the state that I’m aware of with better than 4% odds of drawing. If your buddy wants an antelope tag he should push IDFG to move antelope into the trophy species draws, I bet they would be near 50% odds every year or better if you had to choose between antelope or deer and elk


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I’ve drawn a couple antelope tags on points in other states with similar applicant to tag allocations ratios.

 

[bergie]

Good to see that the vast majority understand that point systems are only of any value to the people who get in at the beginning. Keep it random and give our kids and grandkids the same opportunity to hunt as we had. Its very simple if you look our for future generations and not just yourself to see that point systems are the wrong way to go.

 

[deadwolf]

Hunt tags you can actually draw.

Chase OIL’s on the random.

Random or not, some tags will always have astronomical odds.

As the point creep goes higher, so do those tags that you currently can plan for. Sure, right now you can say “I know I can hunt elk in that particular unit when I have four points.” But as more point creep occurs and those “small cap” units that used to take 25 points now take 40, your unit you used to be able to hunt with 2,3,4 points now takes 12, 13, 14

I have a family member with 25 elk preference points in Washington, he’s 75 years old. He has a “decent” chance of drawing the tag before he can’t hunt anymore. But the generation below him will without a doubt see that point number go substantially higher.

There’s no chance that any argument in favor of any point system will sway my opinion.


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[WRO]

As the point creep goes higher, so do those tags that you currently can plan for. Sure, right now you can say “I know I can hunt elk in that particular unit when I have four points.” But as more point creep occurs and those “small cap” units that used to take 25 points now take 40, your unit you used to be able to hunt with 2,3,4 points now takes 12, 13, 14

I have a family member with 25 elk preference points in Washington, he’s 75 years old. He has a “decent” chance of drawing the tag before he can’t hunt anymore. But the generation below him will without a doubt see that point number go substantially higher.

There’s no chance that any argument in favor of any point system will sway my opinion.


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I wouldn’t use Washington as an example for anything.. Almost no quality tags (QTY) available and tons of applicants, no system would change that.

For residents, there’s several units that have remained relatively stable across multiple hunts.

NR is a whole different beast as there are significantly more applicants in most states and cuts in NR quotas.

 

[WeiserBucks]

I wouldn’t use Washington as an example for anything..

Why not? Because the point system has proven to be a failure?

 

[WRO]

Why not? Because the point system has proven to be a failure?

Because the state is a failure with regards hunter opportunities and game management.

That’s why there all hunting in Idaho.

Grew up there, it’s a shit state to hunt in.

 

[WeiserBucks]

Every states point system is a failure, not just the ones you don't care for.

 

[Wprinkle]

Every states point system is a failure, not just the ones you don't care for.

Absolutely true!! And then there is Arizona where you have to have a degree in chinese arithmetic to figure out lol

 

[WRO]

Absolutely true!! And then there is Arizona where you have to have a degree in chinese arithmetic to figure out lol

Nevada yes, Az no it’s just simply looking at get points pass to see guaranteed and then the bonus pass is for random tags.

Applying in Az is a nightmare for sure.

I liked Oregon’s when I was a resident there, I didn’t start at the bottom on points but it was pretty predictable and most mid tier tags and low tier tags stabilized point range wise and the 25% pool was good to me a couple times.

That being said I completely understand people not liking point systems.

 

[BrentH]

Washingtonian here with 29 elk points and 23 deer points, 20+ for OIL species, etc….

Bonus points just give false hope. Every year there are people that draw premium tags with single digit points.

I wish there was a way for WA to ditch the points system, but I don’t think it will ever happen.

 

[Legend]

Long time applicants still have an advantage in terms of probability of drawing a tag over time in a random system. The more you apply the more likely you are to draw. The probability of being successful one time over the course of multiple trials is given by this formula:

1-(1-P)^n

Where n is the number of trials and P is odds of drawing. So for example if there is a hunt that typically has 20% odds of drawing a tag and you applied for 5 years. The probability that you would draw the tag at least once is = 1- (1-0.2)^5; That calculates out to 67%. If you apply for 10 years it comes out to 89%.

So while your odds of drawing in any single year are the same as everyone else, your probability of drawing over time slowly approaches but will never reach 100%. Think about it terms of dice rolls. The odds of rolling a 6 on any given attempt are always 1/6 or ~16.7%. However, if you roll the dice multiple times you will eventually roll a six. Yes each dice roll is independent of each other just like each year of applying for a tag is independent of previous years but if you apply 10 times you are more likely to draw than someone who only applies once.

Let's take your scenario of unit 54. Last year it had 9% drawing odds. The probability that the hunter would draw the tag at least once over the course of 15 years is 75.5%. In a pure preference point system it could take him 11 years to draw. In a 50/50 split preference/random system it could take 22 years. In a pure bonus point system it could take just as long or longer than a random system. I fail to see the advantage in all but a pure preference system and that would require a severe handicap on all future generations of applicants.

Best post I have seen in a long time!

 

[Legend]

Couple points to add (sorry for the pun):

1) Point system are the end of hunting for our youth. The math pretty much shows it is a waste of time and money to apply in an established point system.

2) After points are established and the upper end tag holders still can't draw history shows the next evolution.....squaring points. And when that one doesn't work history shows they move to cube the points. Now run your once in every 2 to 5 year scenario ( it isn't possible)

3) The ONLY scenario where points systems work is one where the top tier point holders arw removed out of the pool every year.....presumably by drawing a tag. And this can only happen with hunts that have large number of tags/lower interest ratio. If you don't remove the top tier the total points in the pool get out of control.

I have drawn tags by playing the points game. But I would gladly cash in 24 years of MT sheep points to see the system disappear!! And only then will my children have a chance.

 

[flyfisher117]

Absolutely not.