How bad will AK winter kill be?

[Bambistew]

How bad do you think the winter kill will be on sheep this year in AK? Snow has piled up deep in many ranges, but generally I think we avoided most of the rain/chinook type weather. I'm sure the predators had a good winter eating sheep. I'm guessing it's going to be a bit more challenging than in recent years to find legal rams. On the upside, there may be fewer NR hunting, so we may see a lower harvest, and a few extra rams survive the season that normally wouldn't.

I'm not to optimistic about this fall, I have a feeling it will be a tough season in the areas I hunt.

 

[InteriorAKPopsicle]

Not sure yet but I know that the moose are aggressive and hungry.
State has issued warning to be careful as the moose are being very aggressive because of the long cold winter. We had a COE and calf in the yard Sunday and she was pretty thin. Hips were starting to stick out quite a bit.


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[VernAK]

How bad do you think the winter kill will be on sheep this year in AK? Snow has piled up deep in many ranges, but generally I think we avoided most of the rain/chinook type weather. I'm sure the predators had a good winter eating sheep. I'm guessing it's going to be a bit more challenging than in recent years to find legal rams. On the upside, there may be fewer NR hunting, so we may see a lower harvest, and a few extra rams survive the season that normally wouldn't.

I'm not to optimistic about this fall, I have a feeling it will be a tough season in the areas I hunt.

I share your concern!
The DCUA didn't get the usual Chinnoks to thaw and freeze down the grasses but there is a lot of snow and it remains with the last two days being our only thaws. Pilots are reporting numerous coyotes in the high country above usual trap lines. A pilot friend has picked up three big ram heads from wolf kills.

 

[NUGGET]

We've had a real winter up here, but it sits in the news shadow because of the covid 19. I saw a video a pilot friend took of a couple hundred dead moose in a short flight. Moose are pretty hardy animals, I'm sure all species got hit pretty hard this winter.

 

[NUGGET]

It’s never bad when you’re an outfitter.

 

[Yellowknife]

The majority of the state is seeing snow depth ranging from above average to WAY above average. We still have 36" in places that were bare last year at this time. The good news is that there were few chinooks and at least some wintering areas saw good winds to keep the grass cleaned off. I'd speculate that survival rates are going to be highly variable, with pockets of bad winter kill and other areas that are just fine. Hopefully I'll be out there to make some personal observations in a few months.

I'm interested to see if the 2013/14 cohorts coming up will have any impact on harvest. 2013 in particular was a bad year, with extremely low lamb survival rates. At least in theory, that should be making a dent in the number of legal rams in the next couple years.

The moose on the other hand.... A lot of moose didn't make it I'm sure. Those guys had a rough winter.

 

[Bambistew]

F&G said that they've lost ~25% of their collared animals in the Talkeetnas to various reasons, 2x more than normal mortality. I suspect 13D will be in a similar boat. Final nail in the coffin? Will they issue an EO?

Snow depths in the central and western AK Range are 2x+ as much of normal in some areas. Going to be a rough fall I have a feeling. Might be the perfect year to have to eat a canceled hunt vs wasting your time/money on a trip with reduced success potential?

I agree with Yellowknife, we're coming up on a the cohorts from 2013 winter as well. We're already chasing reduced rams numbers. I think we may be in for a tough year or two ahead. Luckily the last 4 years have been very mild and lamb survival was very good in many ranges so it should bounce back.

 

[Gadjet]

I have a sheep hunt booked for August 10th in the Alaska range. This really doesn't sound good, especially with all of the uncertainty that's associated with the corona virus.

 

[chisana]

F&G said that they've lost ~25% of their collared animals in the Talkeetnas to various reasons, 2x more than normal mortality. I suspect 13D will be in a similar boat. Final nail in the coffin? Will they issue an EO?

When have you ever seen a preseason EO restricting a sheep hunt?

 

[Jasper]

When have you ever seen a preseason EO restricting a sheep hunt?

If I remember correctly, ADFG shut down a big chunk of the Western Brooks range in early August of 2013 in response to low sheep numbers.

 

[OXN939]

F&G said that they've lost ~25% of their collared animals in the Talkeetnas to various reasons, 2x more than normal mortality. I suspect 13D will be in a similar boat. Final nail in the coffin? Will they issue an EO?

Snow depths in the central and western AK Range are 2x+ as much of normal in some areas. Going to be a rough fall I have a feeling. Might be the perfect year to have to eat a canceled hunt vs wasting your time/money on a trip with reduced success potential?

I agree with Yellowknife, we're coming up on a the cohorts from 2013 winter as well. We're already chasing reduced rams numbers. I think we may be in for a tough year or two ahead. Luckily the last 4 years have been very mild and lamb survival was very good in many ranges so it should bounce back.

Interesting read here, and I remember hearing about '13 being especially rowdy as winters go.

What are you guys' thoughts on winter goat mortality this year? The papers I've read in general on the subject have a lot of variability between what they say.

 

[Yellowknife]

If I remember correctly, ADFG shut down a big chunk of the Western Brooks range in early August of 2013 in response to low sheep numbers.

They actually held off that closure until Aug 2014. At that point the Brooks Range had seen about three bad years in a row and they just locked the door. Link to the original EO below.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/applications/webintra/wcnews/2014/orders/05-06-14.pdf

So yeah, there is some precedence. With several good winters in a row for most of the state, I'd think most populations should be sufficiently resilient to survive one bad winter and bounce back. I believe the one that hasn't fully recovered since 2014 is the northern Brooks Range. The Chugach has been iffy for longer than that now, but is already managed via limited draw tags.

 

[Jasper]

"...

They actually held off that closure until Aug 2014. At that point the Brooks Range had seen about three bad years in a row and they just locked the door. Link to the original EO below..."

I appreciate the memory kickstart. Makes sense. 2014 season in response to the winters of 2012 and 2013. ​

 

[chisana]

They actually held off that closure until Aug 2014. At that point the Brooks Range had seen about three bad years in a row and they just locked the door. Link to the original EO below.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/applications/webintra/wcnews/2014/orders/05-06-14.pdf

So yeah, there is some precedence. With several good winters in a row for most of the state, I'd think most populations should be sufficiently resilient to survive one bad winter and bounce back. I believe the one that hasn't fully recovered since 2014 is the northern Brooks Range. The Chugach has been iffy for longer than that now, but is already managed via limited draw tags.

I couldn't remember if that one was by EO or regulation. Also, that population was already struggling and had been declining for several years at that point.

 

[wildwilderness]

I doubt many NR will voluntarily cancel their Sheep Hunts. Dunleavy seems set on opening the State economy, especially since oil hit a lowest ever-Negative!! -$40 per barrel! oil has become a storage liability, so they are paying people to take it!

So Alaska's economy will be at depression levels, coupled with Cruise Cancellations/Tourism. Hunting and Fishing is the only thing left and NRs fund a large portion of that. Will see how it goes in Aug.

 

[Bambistew]

Bad reports keep coming in... South Brooks (near Wiseman) isn't looking to good, deep crusty snow is hard on sheep, what few have survived. There are a number of prominent outfitters (who are mentioned regularly) that hunt this area. Be interesting to hear their spin on it, or if they've even been to their area since last fall.

 

[Nick Muche]

Lots of snow there now, but it is melting fast. Be interesting to see how they fared.

 

[trapperJ]

Tons of snow this winter in the southcentral Brooks and its melting slowly. It rained hard a couple of weeks ago and then cooled off and froze up solid. It's still frozen hard with single digits at night and mid 30's during the day and the forecast doesn't look to change for a while.

 

[kphunter]

I have seen a lot of sheep this spring, and more mature rams than I normally do. That’s just my part of the state, but it’s looking like it wasn’t too hard on them.