So if I'm understanding this correctly. they've been making the same argument every year because they don't want to share the land (shut this down to non-residents) using the same hyperbolic reasons (outsiders are causing caribou behavior to change, make a mess, etc).
The only thing that they've been missing to really stick the landing on this has been the science (caribou herd census) since the census was deferred in 2020 the FSB could not in good faith make a decision to close it last year.
Now that we have a new census - in which a single biologist, Alex Jansen, has determined that the herd count is below the threshold of 200k (188k) - they have everything they need to confidently close this year?
Sound right?
From past experience asking pretty much the same questions as you, I learned that a census is tricky business.
Many pilots are recruited to fly the transects over weeks of time when aggregations are historically largest. They have sophisticated cameras taking high res images of all caribou they locate and a biologist team like Alex et al is responsible for data collection and digital photo file assessment.
The last I was aware the state ADFG does their own count from all photos and then also sends the compilation to a non-biased science team outside Alaska, which completes a separate count and assessment. When that data is returned the state compares and adjusts the population count and defines that number for current population size.
It's never a fail safe practice but it's the best method of counting used to date. Now, the shortfall of humans counting caribou by plane is that some transects are incomplete due to weather and terrain, which could easily hide uncounted caribou. Also, caribou range has no fences so herd emigration and range sharing with other herds is not only possible but plausible. For example, the central arctic herd declined 50% in 1 year while the neighboring Porcupine herd grew by 20% the same year...connected by forces we can't exactly prove.
One thing to remember is that our historical data collection for this herd started in around 1970, fifty years after the start of the Industrial Revolution and 15 years before industrial work began for Red Dog Mine. At that time bag limits and harvest data were willy nilly until ADFG began to do these counts and estimated the population to begin managing a diverse animal group. We don't know much about numbers before 1970 OR how much Red Dog Mine activity affected this herd OR any knowledge prior to increased industrial pollution and Ozone impacts, so we used that 1970s data point to define that herd's "normal stable population". Arbitrary genesis of true historical population trends IMO.
So today's count of 188,000 plus or minus 11,000 suggests the herd is about the same in number as it was in 1970 and ebbs/flows of decades thereafter. When you capture a massive incline data point of over 400,000 caribou in one year that point becomes the "peak" of what is now expected of the herd. So today, compared to the strongest fluke years of boom population it suddenly appears that the herd is 50% of its normal maximum peak....which is only accurate within the context of 1970-2021. What if 150,000-220,000 is the centurion mean average population count?
All our management systems do the best they can to make counts and set bag limits and quotas. We trust the science because it proves the best tool we have to continue harvest opportunities for everyone.
The "threshold" is a data point that defines an agreeable line where liberal and conservative strategies converge, and 200,000 caribou is that line today. Now that we're at that level we expect Natives to get theirs and we want ours. Restrictions are the last resort by law while a harvest quota exists.
The ANILCA process is a fed vs. state argument when we reach the weeds of these proposals. The state pursues litigation against the FSB more often than you hear about. They rarely win, but they'll keep litigating to fight overreach by the FSB if and when these proposals result in unjust or unnecessary restrictions on non-local hunters.
