Go Hunt vs Huntin Fool

[displacedtexan]

This is my first year using either, but the draw odds are drastically different between the two and it makes me question both of them.

The odds are just guesses based on data anyone can get for free.

 

[DKSOutdoorsman]

The odds are just guesses based on data anyone can get for free.

I’m sure there is some sort of formula both companies think is the most accurate, but they’re 15+% apart from each other on most units. I don’t think it’s very accurate

 

[displacedtexan]

I’m sure there is some sort of formula both companies think is the most accurate, but they’re 15+% apart from each other on most units. I don’t think it’s very accurate

I'm sure there is.

But an educated guess with a formula is still a guess.

 

[CarterHunt]

I’m sure there is some sort of formula both companies think is the most accurate, but they’re 15+% apart from each other on most units. I don’t think it’s very accurate

Are you comparing GoHunts predictive draw odds to the historical draw odds on Huntin' Fool? Go Hunt just rolled out the predictive draw odds a few weeks ago to try and accommodate for point creep, but they have the historical draw odds on their site too.

 

[Krolly]

Are you comparing GoHunts predictive draw odds to the historical draw odds on Huntin' Fool? Go Hunt just rolled out the predictive draw odds a few weeks ago to try and accommodate for point creep, but they have the historical draw odds on their site too.

Right, Huntin fools historical draw results matched the states records spot on when I’ve doubled checked them.

 

[DKSOutdoorsman]

Are you comparing GoHunts predictive draw odds to the historical draw odds on Huntin' Fool? Go Hunt just rolled out the predictive draw odds a few weeks ago to try and accommodate for point creep, but they have the historical draw odds on their site too.

It doesn't look like GoHunt's predictive draw odds are available in Nevada yet so I'm assuming I'm looking at historical draw odds from both. In my particular situation, I'm a Nevada resident with 5 points for Elk and 3 for Mule Deer and. Here's a screenshot of the table I made to show the differences between the two. These percentages are from the Archery season.

 

[CarterHunt]

It doesn't look like GoHunt's predictive draw odds are available in Nevada yet so I'm assuming I'm looking at historical draw odds from both. In my particular situation, I'm a Nevada resident with 5 points for Elk and 3 for Mule Deer and. Here's a screenshot of the table I made to show the differences between the two. These percentages are from the Archery season.

View attachment 859012

You’re right - interesting. That’s a pretty big delta. I would probably trust GoHunt over OnX/HFgiven all the changes they have made recently and GoHunt being based in NV. I wonder if OnX isn’t squaring the points or something?

 

[willfrye027]

It doesn't look like GoHunt's predictive draw odds are available in Nevada yet so I'm assuming I'm looking at historical draw odds from both. In my particular situation, I'm a Nevada resident with 5 points for Elk and 3 for Mule Deer and. Here's a screenshot of the table I made to show the differences between the two. These percentages are from the Archery season.

View attachment 859012

The Nevada draw is pretty complex and they probably have a different formula/algorithm. Nevada is even more guessing with draw odds than some of the other states..but it’s all a guess anyways. Impossible to know if you’ll be in the lucky 97% or the unlucky 3%..and it all depends on what people put in for their application this year anyways.

 

[wind gypsy]

Yeah, I’m pumped to look through my nv elk draw odds soon with 9 points. Pretty sure every tag in the state could just say “lol, not a fuggin chance” for odds.

 

[TreeWalking]

The Nevada draw is pretty complex and they probably have a different formula/algorithm. Nevada is even more guessing with draw odds than some of the other states..but it’s all a guess anyways. Impossible to know if you’ll be in the lucky 97% or the unlucky 3%..and it all depends on what people put in for their application this year anyways.

Any state that looks at more than one of your choices before moves to the next applicant could re-run the exact draw multiple times and only vary which application is drawn first with the results being very different. Historical results represent one draw scenario but, again, the results could greatly vary is the application draw order is slightly changed which is very possible if re-run the exact draw after redo the random numbers assigned to each applicant. I think statistics attack the multi-variable, multi-choice scenario with the Monte Carlo method.

If you understand Roulette then you could write down the prior five results and say that is the historical results. You would feel rather confident limiting your choice for what to be on the next spin by selecting one of the prior 5 results. That approach ignores probabilities which are known as the ball has one choice each spin and each choice is equally likely.

Nevada allows you multiple ball spins, though, and you "win" if you application is drawn and even a single choice has one tag left for you. If every choice had a tag, though, you could have won any of the choices if you had placed that as your first choice. So, the order you application is pulled for a species which is influenced by your points from prior years squared plus 1 more for this year so think of having more balls in the hopper, the order of your choices, and the order of all the choices by all the applicants pulled before your application is selected for review of your choices.

My take on this is GoHunt's approach where the simulation of the prior year's draw is ran thousands of times will create a relative likelihood of what hunts have a better chance for you to draw if, and this is a big if, quota is unchanged for this year and nothing has significantly altered applicant behavior since last year. A world record animal shot on one of the hunts will increase demand. An economic recession might reduce demand across the board. An upcoming change in the point or draw system can change behaviors. Same if tag prices jump up.

I accept that data is good and certainty is just not realistic as I gather up my choices and pick the order. Let the Tag Gods treat me kindly.