Go Hunt vs Huntin Fool

[displacedtexan]

This is my first year using either, but the draw odds are drastically different between the two and it makes me question both of them.

The odds are just guesses based on data anyone can get for free.

 

[DKSOutdoorsman]

The odds are just guesses based on data anyone can get for free.

I’m sure there is some sort of formula both companies think is the most accurate, but they’re 15+% apart from each other on most units. I don’t think it’s very accurate

 

[displacedtexan]

I’m sure there is some sort of formula both companies think is the most accurate, but they’re 15+% apart from each other on most units. I don’t think it’s very accurate

I'm sure there is.

But an educated guess with a formula is still a guess.

 

[CarterHunt]

I’m sure there is some sort of formula both companies think is the most accurate, but they’re 15+% apart from each other on most units. I don’t think it’s very accurate

Are you comparing GoHunts predictive draw odds to the historical draw odds on Huntin' Fool? Go Hunt just rolled out the predictive draw odds a few weeks ago to try and accommodate for point creep, but they have the historical draw odds on their site too.

 

[Krolly]

Are you comparing GoHunts predictive draw odds to the historical draw odds on Huntin' Fool? Go Hunt just rolled out the predictive draw odds a few weeks ago to try and accommodate for point creep, but they have the historical draw odds on their site too.

Right, Huntin fools historical draw results matched the states records spot on when I’ve doubled checked them.

 

[DKSOutdoorsman]

Are you comparing GoHunts predictive draw odds to the historical draw odds on Huntin' Fool? Go Hunt just rolled out the predictive draw odds a few weeks ago to try and accommodate for point creep, but they have the historical draw odds on their site too.

It doesn't look like GoHunt's predictive draw odds are available in Nevada yet so I'm assuming I'm looking at historical draw odds from both. In my particular situation, I'm a Nevada resident with 5 points for Elk and 3 for Mule Deer and. Here's a screenshot of the table I made to show the differences between the two. These percentages are from the Archery season.

 

[CarterHunt]

It doesn't look like GoHunt's predictive draw odds are available in Nevada yet so I'm assuming I'm looking at historical draw odds from both. In my particular situation, I'm a Nevada resident with 5 points for Elk and 3 for Mule Deer and. Here's a screenshot of the table I made to show the differences between the two. These percentages are from the Archery season.

View attachment 859012

You’re right - interesting. That’s a pretty big delta. I would probably trust GoHunt over OnX/HFgiven all the changes they have made recently and GoHunt being based in NV. I wonder if OnX isn’t squaring the points or something?

 

[willfrye027]

It doesn't look like GoHunt's predictive draw odds are available in Nevada yet so I'm assuming I'm looking at historical draw odds from both. In my particular situation, I'm a Nevada resident with 5 points for Elk and 3 for Mule Deer and. Here's a screenshot of the table I made to show the differences between the two. These percentages are from the Archery season.

View attachment 859012

The Nevada draw is pretty complex and they probably have a different formula/algorithm. Nevada is even more guessing with draw odds than some of the other states..but it’s all a guess anyways. Impossible to know if you’ll be in the lucky 97% or the unlucky 3%..and it all depends on what people put in for their application this year anyways.

 

[wind gypsy]

Yeah, I’m pumped to look through my nv elk draw odds soon with 9 points. Pretty sure every tag in the state could just say “lol, not a fuggin chance” for odds.

 

[TreeWalking]

The Nevada draw is pretty complex and they probably have a different formula/algorithm. Nevada is even more guessing with draw odds than some of the other states..but it’s all a guess anyways. Impossible to know if you’ll be in the lucky 97% or the unlucky 3%..and it all depends on what people put in for their application this year anyways.

Any state that looks at more than one of your choices before moves to the next applicant could re-run the exact draw multiple times and only vary which application is drawn first with the results being very different. Historical results represent one draw scenario but, again, the results could greatly vary is the application draw order is slightly changed which is very possible if re-run the exact draw after redo the random numbers assigned to each applicant. I think statistics attack the multi-variable, multi-choice scenario with the Monte Carlo method.

If you understand Roulette then you could write down the prior five results and say that is the historical results. You would feel rather confident limiting your choice for what to be on the next spin by selecting one of the prior 5 results. That approach ignores probabilities which are known as the ball has one choice each spin and each choice is equally likely.

Nevada allows you multiple ball spins, though, and you "win" if you application is drawn and even a single choice has one tag left for you. If every choice had a tag, though, you could have won any of the choices if you had placed that as your first choice. So, the order you application is pulled for a species which is influenced by your points from prior years squared plus 1 more for this year so think of having more balls in the hopper, the order of your choices, and the order of all the choices by all the applicants pulled before your application is selected for review of your choices.

My take on this is GoHunt's approach where the simulation of the prior year's draw is ran thousands of times will create a relative likelihood of what hunts have a better chance for you to draw if, and this is a big if, quota is unchanged for this year and nothing has significantly altered applicant behavior since last year. A world record animal shot on one of the hunts will increase demand. An economic recession might reduce demand across the board. An upcoming change in the point or draw system can change behaviors. Same if tag prices jump up.

I accept that data is good and certainty is just not realistic as I gather up my choices and pick the order. Let the Tag Gods treat me kindly.

 

[JTL28]

I have had good experiences with Huntin Fool. They allow you to reach out to previous tag holders in the area/unit you are hunting. I was lucky to draw a NM Elk Unit 6A tag this year. They gave me a list of people to contact that drew that tag over the last few years.

Many of them got back to me with their experiences in the unit. It has been very helpful planning the trip for this fall.

 

[TradLife406]

They've both bastardized hunting...

At my old honey hole there would be two Montana trucks at the trailhead to about 12 Midwesties. A trailhead to a large area so wasn't a matter of hunting on top of other people usually.
When you'd ask them how they found the random spot they'd say go hunt.
Which sucks because you'd think a Montana guy would like to keep the non resident numbers down. But Go Hunt definitely increased it. Definitely helps the local economy though and keeps my resident fees down.
But to be fair it's not just go hunt. The whole social media craze of making western hunting look sexy hasn't helped.

And to be fair my best friend and hunting buddy is a non resident.

 

[Mojave]

And then whine like a little bitch on a YouTube video because they had trouble getting their own tag.

This is 100% especially GoHunt, your entire job is selling people data then you bitch and complain when someone draws a tag and you don't.

 

[Mojave]

There are a lot of opportunities for tags that Hunting Fool has personally destroyed, or made worse. They give you a lot of data like Texas, North Dakota and other states that not a lot of people knew about.

They also give you a good shot at the state and non-profit species specific tag raffles. I think the raffles are worth putting into for a ticket. But it can't be a situation where you have the point or know you are close and then play raffles that would screw that up. It isn't a situation I want to have. I actually had some good tags during Covid, and couldn't travel or was blocked out by the game and fish. Not dramatic like lower 48 sheep or moose, but a decent elk tag.

So Gohunt has followed suit and now offers more mid-western states.

Neither company is perfect and with due diligence you could probably find the majority of the information they give out.

Hunting Fool also has its own guided raffle hunts, so do other companies including TWA. I don't think you have to pay hunting fool for a membership to buy into their guided hunt raffles.

You can blame a trifecta of these two and the Eastman's for publishing the information.

The good:

1. No matter what you think about them or perceive their market to be, they save you time.
2. Both of them for more money will hold your hand a little better and give you a personal application strategy.
3. They compile data that isn't impossible to find, but takes a lot of time.
4. They offer a wide overview of actual units, and what people find.
5. In some cases they offer information on people who hunted there and had success.
6. People tend to share information, maybe overshare in the units section.


What they don't do/problems:

1. Offer actual predictive draw odds, as they are a good guess as they can't predict the future.
2. Give anything other than a broad overview of units.
3. They focus draw applications, and make it very easy for people to figure out. I am 100% sure the 3 of them together have increased the draw odds for all Western hunting over the past 30 years for Eastman's and Hunting Fool and the past 8-10 for Go Hunt.

 

[Banjo91]

In the last 20 years, what opportunity has significantly grown with the incredible influx of cash in those state coffers? What’s better than it was from an opportunity standpoint point than it was 20 years ago? Where are there more animals on the landscape with better public access? Where are tag numbers increasing beyond demand for tags? Where are herds growing?

The unprecedented amount of money flowing into those state coffers isn’t making anything better. What’s more money going to do?

The hunting industry has the state game and fish agencies completely captured with the R3 bullshit. It’s no different than the pharmaceutical, medical, or agricultural industries.


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So your concerns lie with use of government revenue, not so much with a certain business "bastardizing" hunting.

People can complain about how 1-2 companies changed and everything, but I argue it's the advent of the internet. Information is available to all ... and getting easier and easier to access. These 2 companies helped to digest the information easier and helped interested hunters understand the overly complex draw systems that each state has created.

I have been a passionate waterfowl hunter for much of my life, and I hate the massive crowds I see in public lands as well as the steep competition for private access. Do I hate these people for it? No ... just need to change with the times.

And if you think this change that the internet created was bad, wait until you see what artificial intelligence will do to this sport


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