Fleeing Californians and Property Values

[Will_m]

Has anybody seen the percentage increase amount in property values for some of the refugee states (MT, WY, ID) for the mass exodus coming off the west coast? Seems like somebody missed an enormous investment opportunity.

 

[ndbuck09]

Well I bought a house in Boise in 2014 so I've seen about 120% increase in prop value....

 

[def90]

Yeah, I’m seriously considering buying a house in Id just to run as a rental and hopefully cash in on the potential rise in value since I am priced out of doing something similar in Colorado.

the question is whether or not these people will remain long term residents or if there will be an exodus from Id in a few years when these people decide they want to live back closer to their families or whatever down the road. That seems to be a common theme here in Colorado. People move in to Boulder to work for Google or some other big tech firm, get married and then after a few years end up moving back to Cali to be near family. In the mean time they have voted for their side to ruin the place and then they leave.

If this is a temporary move the housing market could just as easily crash in a few years.

 

[WeiserBucks]

All it's doing is pricing alot of locals out of buying a home. I bought 4 years ago for $125K, I had it appraised 2 weeks ago for $300K. Absolutely ridiculous and the average family can't afford the bidding wars that are going on right now.

 

[Jimmy]

As a Californian, I don't see the number of people moving out of CA slowing down any time soon.

And enough people have moved already that now people considering moving already have friends that live in ID or wherever. If you can make money off people moving into your state, you may as well do it!

 

[JakeSCH]

To be fair, prices in California are sky rocketing too. My house went from 750 to 1.2 mil over the last 5 years...however I will probably be cashing out soon.

I think the price increase has more to do with people moving out of downtown areas because they can work from home.

 

[WeiserBucks]

To be fair, prices in California are sky rocketing too. My house went from 750 to 1.2 mil over the last 5 years...however I will probably be cashing out soon.

I think the price increase has more to do with people moving out of downtown areas because they can work from home.

Wrong, they're selling for $1Mil, and buying a home in ID for $550K when the home is worth $250K and they think they got a great deal. In reality they grossly overpaid and screwed an average income local family out of owning a home.

 

[MattB]

To be fair, prices in California are sky rocketing too. My house went from 750 to 1.2 mil over the last 5 years...however I will probably be cashing out soon.

I think the price increase has more to do with people moving out of downtown areas because they can work from home.e value of my house in San Jose, CA is up $259K in the last 30 days if you believe Zillow. This is due to the phenomenon you mentioned - people leaving urban areas for the suburbs.

Over the past ~6 months, rents in San Francisco are down over 30% while the value of my house 45 miles south in San Jose is up $259K in the last 30 days per Zillow.

Then again, increasing the money supply by ~25% will inflate asset values.

 

[Billy Goat]

Wrong, they're selling for $1Mil, and buying a home in ID for $550K when the home is worth $250K and they think they got a great deal. In reality they grossly overpaid and screwed an average income local family out of owning a home.

That's a pretty common urban to rural conversion all across this country in reality.

 

[MattB]

Wrong, they're selling for $1Mil, and buying a home in ID for $550K when the home is worth $250K and they think they got a great deal. In reality they grossly overpaid and screwed an average income local family out of owning a home.

What is the statistical basis for that comment? While anecdotal, more people I know leaving the bay area are settling in other, less developed areas of CA than leaving the state.

 

[WeiserBucks]

I don't have any statistics, I live in ID and see it every day.

 

[JakeSCH]

Wrong, they're selling for $1Mil, and buying a home in ID for $550K when the home is worth $250K and they think they got a great deal. In reality they grossly overpaid and screwed an average income local family out of owning a home.

Real-estate is worth what people are willing to pay for it.

What is the statistical basis for that comment? While anecdotal, more people I know leaving the bay area are settling in other, less developed areas of CA than leaving the state.

To be fair to @WeiserBucks point, I have had 5 different friends (and their families) move from San Diego to Idaho in the last year. Most of them are buying new construction outside of Boise because it is a "steal".

 

[MattB]

I don't have any statistics, I live in ID and see it every day.

So the guys who live in CA and see it every day at the source are wrong but the guy who lives in ID knows what's up? Got it.

 

[ODB]

Real-estate is worth what people are willing to pay for it.



To be fair to @WeiserBucks point, I have had 5 different friends (and their families) move from San Diego to Idaho in the last year. Most of them are buying new construction outside of Boise because it is a "steal".

Just curious...did those families all have jobs before moving, working remote, or moved and will figure our jobs later?

 

[hami0528]

The CA exodus won’t be ending anytime soon. Cost of living in a place like ID or WY doesn’t even compare to CA. You just hope CA residents remember why they left CA. I would hate to see ID, MT, and WY run into the same political/tax/regulatory problems that CA is dealing with.

 

[JakeSCH]

Just curious...did those families all have jobs before moving, working remote, or moved and will figure our jobs later?

Two of the families were older (kids out of the house) and the move was for cheaper cost of living for retirement. Two are in real-estate and have rentals back home. Plus with the rise in values out there they are getting in homes now as an investment because they believe it will only go up.

The last one moved out there for a nursing job.

 

[WeiserBucks]

So the guys who live in CA and see it every day at the source are wrong but the guy who lives in ID knows what's up? Got it.

There's two ends to this rope, you can see one end and I can see the other.

 

[mxgsfmdpx]

The last numbers I saw it was something like around 600,000 people have moved out of California to other states each year, and around 500,000 have moved into California from other states. If that’s “mass exodus” than we really are overreacting to everything now a days aren’t we.

 

[JFK]

I have lived my whole life in Ca. Lots to like about it including great ocean fishing, and better hunting in some areas than it gets credit for. That said, it has turned into a complete dump when it comes to people/politics. Too many of both. I now view Ca as a place to work, enjoy while I can, extract the maximum amount of money out, and then bail when the time is right. It’s broken beyond repair. Lots of others have come to the same conclusion.

If you feel like you are overrun by people from California I’ll tell you it goes both ways. Lots of people move here, get jobs in tech and jack up home prices beyond reach for most people.

 

[CorbLand]

There was a townhome here that was around 1200 sq ft. Went on the market for 250,000 and sold 2 days later for 285,000. 7 cash offers in the first 24 hrs. I dont know how people afford these things with wages they pay around here.