Do you really understand Nevada Draw Odds?

[Tilzbow]

OK, I missed that you disagree with them. That's fine and why I started this entire discussion.

I wouldn't necessarily say I disagree with either of them. I just think we've all done a poor job of explaining the impact of earlier choices on the odds of later choices. Earlier choices have no impact on the odds of later choices but they do have an impact on reaching a later choice. Before the draw begins the earlier choices will lower the odds of drawing a later choice because your chance of reaching the later choice is impacted. This is the key to understanding this thing. If and when you reach this later choice your odds of drawing the unit are still the same regardless of what order that unit was in at the beginning.

This is due to the fact that NV goes down the your entire list of choices before moving on to the next applicant.

 

[Tilzbow]

so an oversimplified way of saying it is your odds don't change once you get to that specific hunt, but listing your pie-in-the-sky hunts 1st and 2nd gives you a fighters chance, then listing your better-odds-hunts later as 3-5th your chances only diminish due to the 1&2 choice hunts, but the odds themselves don't change because you listed it as a 5th choice.

I'm only 1/2 done with the bottle of aspirin.

You got it! Now I've got to get back to building slot machines and lottery machines.....

 

[HellsCanyon]

I only have one question, and it goes like this....

If I have a 15% chance tag as choice number 1, and a 5% chance tag as choice 2, will I ever have a chance at drawing my second choice? Is it even possible? What I'm taking from this thread is it's not, but if I reverse those choices, I have a chance at drawing either.

Mike


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[robby denning]

I only have one question, and it goes like this....

If I have a 15% chance tag as choice number 1, and a 5% chance tag as choice 2, will I ever have a chance at drawing my second choice? Is it even possible? What I'm taking from this thread is it's not, but if I reverse those choices, I have a chance at drawing either.

Mike


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No Mike, that's not what we're saying. We're debating on how your latter choices are affected by your earlier choices. You still have a chance to draw no matter how you order your application, but if you don't do low-odds to high-odds, your personal odds plummet, like in your example. You'd want to list the 5% first, 15% second


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[HellsCanyon]

No Mike, that's not what we're saying. We're debating on how your latter choices are affected by your earlier choices. You still have a chance to draw no matter how you order your application, but if you don't do low-odds to high-odds, your personal odds plummet, like in your example. You'd want to list the 5% first, 15% second


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Pretty sure we're saying the same thing...

I'm just asking if the way the system works if it's even possible to draw a lesser chance hunt as a latter choice. There's no scenario I could see with this system where you could draw a SIGNIFICANTLY less likely hunt as a latter choice because your first choice(s) will still have tags available after the latter tag is drawn out.

The only way I see it happening is if the two hunts are really close in odds and the primary choice hunt has already been drawn out but the secondary choice still has tags available. I'm only using two choices here for simplicity sake.

Mike


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[Slim Jim]

Wow I've never put this much thought into my tag apps. I've always just listed 1-5 choices, hardest to easiest to draw. Maybe thats why I always seem to draw my 4th or 5th choice every year. Or maybe because I'm not willing to build points. I like to hunt every year Thanks for all the info but hopefully I forget all of this by next year because this will just give me a headache lol.

 

[robby denning]

Wow I've never put this much thought into my tag apps. I've always just listed 1-5 choices, hardest to easiest to draw. Maybe thats why I always seem to draw my 4th or 5th choice every year. Or maybe because I'm not willing to build points. I like to hunt every year Thanks for all the info but hopefully I forget all of this by next year because this will just give me a headache lol.

Jim, I think I think you got it right ordering your applications the way you have.

Mike there still a chance to draw no matter how you order it but it's a very low chance. Nevada has some of the worst draws in the west, so why make it worse by doing it wrong?


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[wapitibob]

I'm a member of GoHunt. I specifically joined because I was told directly that you had the actual NV data, so odds could be given exactly and not estimated. ..

GoHunt is using the actual applicant database. You may not agree with how they're using it, but they have the raw data.

 

[backcountry_hunter]

Pretty sure we're saying the same thing...

I'm just asking if the way the system works if it's even possible to draw a lesser chance hunt as a latter choice. There's no scenario I could see with this system where you could draw a SIGNIFICANTLY less likely hunt as a latter choice because your first choice(s) will still have tags available after the latter tag is drawn out.

The only way I see it happening is if the two hunts are really close in odds and the primary choice hunt has already been drawn out but the secondary choice still has tags available. I'm only using two choices here for simplicity sake.

The way I'm understanding it is you still do have a chance at the 5% odd hunt IF by some small chance your 15%-odd hunt is filled when your number gets pulled but the 5% hunt tags haven't been 100% allocated yet you could still in theory pull a tag... I could be wrong but I think if you list your 15% first and a 5% second, you still have that slim 5% chance if you make it to that round.

 

[HellsCanyon]

Jim, I think I think you got it right ordering your applications the way you have.

Mike there still a chance to draw no matter how you order it but it's a very low chance. Nevada has some of the worst draws in the west, so why make it worse by doing it wrong?


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Just talking theories and possibilities here. I agree with you that you need to put the low percentage choices first and the easier draws last.

Mike


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[trail@goHunt]

Wow I've never put this much thought into my tag apps. I've always just listed 1-5 choices, hardest to easiest to draw. Maybe thats why I always seem to draw my 4th or 5th choice every year. Or maybe because I'm not willing to build points. I like to hunt every year Thanks for all the info but hopefully I forget all of this by next year because this will just give me a headache lol.

Definitely a lot to think about within this thread, but I think you captured the essence of it. In regards to some of the other posts about mathematical calculations, assumptions, and who's right and who's wrong. I can say that we have taken into consideration and evaluated all the details of the draw, the draw reports, and have crunched numbers and ran simulations again and again. We have some great minds at work and have developed our odds and simulations with one of the leading data science professionals in the world. We could dive deeper into the rabbit hole, but it's likely best to state that we feel very confident in our assumptions, our models, and our draw odds.

GoHunt is using the actual applicant database. You may not agree with how they're using it, but they have the raw data.

Bob is correct, we simulate the draw millions of times and get the actual odds from that. Although the theoretical formulas being debated are interesting, the odds we have are generated from the draw simulations.

 

[OG DramaLlama]

I wouldn't necessarily say I disagree with either of them. I just think we've all done a poor job of explaining the impact of earlier choices on the odds of later choices. Earlier choices have no impact on the odds of later choices but they do have an impact on reaching a later choice. Before the draw begins the earlier choices will lower the odds of drawing a later choice because your chance of reaching the later choice is impacted. This is the key to understanding this thing. If and when you reach this later choice your odds of drawing the unit are still the same regardless of what order that unit was in at the beginning.

This is due to the fact that NV goes down the your entire list of choices before moving on to the next applicant.

Thanks....Appreciate your comments as I feel like it cleared up the confusion I was having on dependent/independent variables. To help me see this I created a table, attached, to visualize this. By listing the areas in reverse the individual probabilities doesn't change, but the chance of drawing the hard tags is less given that you had drawn already. Thoughts?

 

[itsTyrtruion]

So although I think the math is absolutely right on this it still doesn't give an accurate odds. because if you draw your first choice, that doesn't necessarily mean you were unsuccessful in your 2-5 choices, but the math will say you are. My first choice may be a 15% rate, and if the number I pull puts me behind 99 robby dennings that don't want to put in for those hard to draw hunts because he knows easier to draw areas better, that ups my chances even tho the odds say im screwed. but then if my first choice is a 50% draw that has 45 tags and I get a number that's behind the walmart distribution centers hunter party that has 40 people that have a buddy who said they could hunt his ranch im screwed... even tho the odds say its 50/50. SLIM JIM said he always draws his 4-5th choice... odds are hes just drawn a mediocre to crappy number each year. Odds are for each individual attempt. flip a coin you have 50% chance of heads and 50% tails. this absolutely doesn't mean you will get one of each if you flip it twice.

Thanks....Appreciate your comments as I feel like it cleared up the confusion I was having on dependent/independent variables. To help me see this I created a table, attached, to visualize this. By listing the areas in reverse the individual probabilities doesn't change, but the chance of drawing the hard tags is less given that you had drawn already. Thoughts?

View attachment 50156

View attachment 50157

 

[jschaffer]

Except you can't have a negative probability. I'm not aware of anywhere in math that that's an acceptable outcome.
I'm not going to act like I understand the draw odds better then anyone else, but that's the only flaw I see in his explanation.


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Yes, a probability of "0" essentially means it is impossible. Mathematically, nothing can be less than impossible (no, not even "really, really impossible" as some students of mine have said).

 

[jschaffer]

You didn't clarify if the single guy was straight. He could greatly improve his odds if he swung both ways. This way he would have 124 other choices

Now that is funny, I don't care who you are.

 

[Gr8bawana]

Only 4 days till the party starts! Draw odds be damned.

 

[Grundy53]

Well, I think we should revisit this great thread and see how everyone did. I don't think we factored in one key element enough. Blind luck... lol. I drew my second choice which was an early rifle mule deer hunt in unit 6. With zero points. According to Gohunt, My odds of drawing were 1.2%. How did everyone else do?

 

[B.S.]

I drew my 3rd choice with 2 points and 2.5% odds. Not sure how that worked out, but excited for the hunt.