CWD: Interesting article from WY

[NRA4LIFE]

No man sorry, it’s on the decline. Has been for 20 years now i posted PLENTY of links for ya to check out.

Why are you doing this? The numbers don't lie. 2024 was 791023, more than 2023. Does someone need to learn how to use the internet?

 

[Predator_SD]

Why are you doing this? The numbers don't lie. 2024 was 791023, more than 2023. Does someone need to learn how to use the internet?

Sorry, i already posted plenty of trends, links, etc for you to look at in my prior response. You may need to ask the authors of the links i provided if they need to learn how to use the internet.

Here is a really good one on the topic though. It’s older but the trends have continued in a downward trend. Browse through it there is a TON of information, very in depth on the topic of declining hunter numbers and why. The ONLY demographic that has showed small gains are women, because it used to basically be zero and crossbow hunters because it wasn’t even possible before 2013.

https://cdn.apl.wisc.edu/publications/APL_hunter_brief_final.pdf

My only guess to your flawed numbers is you may be quoting ALL license sales not just deer licenses? Like the Patrons license for one. Other than that idk?

Here is an article quoting DNR Deer Program Specialist Jeff Pritzl. He touches on the same thing the other link touches on. The only areas showing slight growth being women and crossbows. Everything else is declining at about 2% per year.

DNR says number of hunters on the decline in Wisconsin

23 years ago, Wisconsin had about 700,000 hunters. In 2023, that number is 600,000

www.wsaw.com

I

 

[Terrapin]

The thing that irritates me in Idaho is that CWD is cropping up next to and in commercial elk ranches… yet the elk farmer/ shoot ranch lobby is still able to convince the state that they need fewer regulations. No more double fences to prevent commingling, lower testing and reporting requirements, etc. This seems to be an unnecessary risk to our already stressed herds to benefit fewer than twenty elk farmers.


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[jmez]

Likely because elk farms are regulated by the Dept of Agriculture rather than GF and parks.

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[ScreamingPotato]

The thing that irritates me in Idaho is that CWD is cropping up next to and in commercial elk ranches… yet the elk farmer/ shoot ranch lobby is still able to convince the state that they need fewer regulations. No more double fences to prevent commingling, lower testing and reporting requirements, etc. This seems to be an unnecessary risk to our already stressed herds to benefit fewer than twenty elk farmers.


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That's how it spread down here in Texas. Gotta ship those farmed freak breeder deer all over the state.

 

[UPThunderbolt]

SD, you are hitting on

Nice post UP.

So i followed your suggestion to look closer at the deer population trends of those counties you suggested with the highest CWD Prevelance rates, as high as 30%.

Here is what the WI DNR data shows on those counties:

Columbia:

View attachment 835436

Dane:

View attachment 835437

Iowa:

View attachment 835438

Richland:

View attachment 835440

Sauk:

View attachment 835441

So, it would appear that 4 of those 5 WI counties with the highest CWD prevelance rates have shown strong GROWTH in their deer populations since CWD as found in 2001.

Then there is Iowa Cty. You might ask what happened there? If you look at the population numbers Iowa Cty also showed pretty strong growth in their deer population right up until 2019. They took a dip that year, but why? Was it CWD? If it was CWD why all of the sudden in 2019? Well, Iowa Cty had a bad EHD outbreak in 2019-2020. There were a LOT of dead deer around there back then. I found 7 deer carcasses just on the Nature Conservancy land near the Vortex HQ near Barneveld. So i’d bet EHD had a LOT more to do with that dip. But even with that dip the 2023, 2024 population is still higher than it was in the early 2000s when CWD cam on the scene.

So with your provided prevalence data combined with strong deer population growth in all those counties you listed as having a high prevalence a logical person could only conclude CWD has had zero negative impact on the deer herd in those counties.

I mean, i’m all ears if you see it differently somehow?

SD, you are hitting on the exact reason for CWD being such a difficult discussion. With diseases such as EHD, the death and destruction is immediately evident. With CWD that is not the case. An animal can have CWD for anywhere between 2 to 5 years before succumbing and dying. Furthermore, as the Durkin article posted above indicated, a prevalence rate of nearly 30% is needed before a population decline is realized. That can partially explain the graphs you presented as the prevalence rate is just now hitting a tipping point.

Comparing EHD and CWD: An analogy would be comparing death by heart attack vs death by a slow moving cancer. I had a friend who recently died of a massive heart attack. One day he’s here, the next day he’s gone. Conversely, another friend has terminal cancer. His prognosis is the same. He isn’t going to make it, but outwardly the general public sees that he is still here walking and talking as always. The real rub with CWD is that, as the animal is dying a very slow death, it is spreading the infection agent into the environment exposing other animals to the same fate. And, once the prions are in the environment, they never go away. As such, there will be a long term build up of the disease within the contaminated area. Additionally, deer are mobile. They disperse from their natal range carrying the disease with them into new locations.

The next big rub with CWD, is that there is no vaccine, no magic bullet to protect the herd at large from contracting the disease. So, the only option for attempting to control the spread of the disease is to reduce exposure opportunities. That means reducing the population which does not set well with the hunting community. A common statement is “I’ll be damned if I’m going to kill a deer to keep it from dying from disease.”

With these facts in mind, the question isn’t whether there will be a huntable deer population for you, but rather there will be a huntable population for your kids and grandkids.

Finally, should that disease ever be found to cross the species barrier into humans, it will no longer be considered a wildlife management issue and will become a human health issue. That would be game over for recreational hunters.

 

[Bull_n_heat]

SD, you are hitting on the exact reason for CWD being such a difficult discussion. With diseases such as EHD, the death and destruction is immediately evident. With CWD that is not the case. An animal can have CWD for anywhere between 2 to 5 years before succumbing and dying. Furthermore, as the Durkin article posted above indicated, a prevalence rate of nearly 30% is needed before a population decline is realized. That can partially explain the graphs you presented as the prevalence rate is just now hitting a tipping point.

Comparing EHD and CWD: An analogy would be comparing death by heart attack vs death by a slow moving cancer. I had a friend who recently died of a massive heart attack. One day he’s here, the next day he’s gone. Conversely, another friend has terminal cancer. His prognosis is the same. He isn’t going to make it, but outwardly the general public sees that he is still here walking and talking as always. The real rub with CWD is that, as the animal is dying a very slow death, it is spreading the infection agent into the environment exposing other animals to the same fate. And, once the prions are in the environment, they never go away. As such, there will be a long term build up of the disease within the contaminated area. Additionally, deer are mobile. They disperse from their natal range carrying the disease with them into new locations.

The next big rub with CWD, is that there is no vaccine, no magic bullet to protect the herd at large from contracting the disease. So, the only option for attempting to control the spread of the disease is to reduce exposure opportunities. That means reducing the population which does not set well with the hunting community. A common statement is “I’ll be damned if I’m going to kill a deer to keep it from dying from disease.”

With these facts in mind, the question isn’t whether there will be a huntable deer population for you, but rather there will be a huntable population for your kids and grandkids.

Finally, should that disease ever be found to cross the species barrier into humans, it will no longer be considered a wildlife management issue and will become a human health issue. That would be game over for recreational hunters.

I think the other part of the deer/CWD equation in Wisconsin is that about 2010 there was a huge change in how deer were managed (long backstory to that). No longer was the strategy to keep the herds at lower numbers to reduce CWD rates. Instead, the herds grew in size quickly (as whitetail do). There's an above average chance that CWD infections rates went up because of the growth in population sizes, not because CWD doesn't ultimately kill deer.

Strictly population numbers don't tell the full story either. If we looked at populations in 2010, it would probably consist of an older age class of deer, deer that are simply gone in herds with higher CWD prevalence rates (bunch of data out of WY would show this). Essentially in a high-prevalence environment, the chance of and individual getting it goes up every year, it has 1-3 years to live before dying of the disease, and age structures plummets across the herd.

 

[CMF]

Furthermore, as the Durkin article posted above indicated, a prevalence rate of nearly 30% is needed before a population decline is realized. That can partially explain the graphs you presented as the prevalence rate is just now hitting a tipping point.

So, are there any cases where there is data to show a direct link between declining populations and cwd? Other than the Iowa county's 15% decline. Which doesn't seem that big actually

I'm open minded about it and do think we should invest some money in research. But like the early stages of covid there is a lot of speculation without good data.

With the data that is out there and the apparent concern over cwd, I can't believe we still allow baiting in MS with the exception of the cwd positive areas. It's likely already in other places and spreading, but there isn't testing.

 

[UPThunderbolt]

I think the other part of the deer/CWD equation in Wisconsin is that about 2010 there was a huge change in how deer were managed (long backstory to that). No longer was the strategy to keep the herds at lower numbers to reduce CWD rates. Instead, the herds grew in size quickly (as whitetail do). There's an above average chance that CWD infections rates went up because of the growth in population sizes, not because CWD doesn't ultimately kill deer.

Strictly population numbers don't tell the full story either. If we looked at populations in 2010, it would probably consist of an older age class of deer, deer that are simply gone in herds with higher CWD prevalence rates (bunch of data out of WY would show this). Essentially in a high-prevalence environment, the chance of and individual getting it goes up every year, it has 1-3 years to live before dying of the disease, and age structures plummets across the

So, are there any cases where there is data to show a direct link between declining populations and cwd? Other than the Iowa county's 15% decline. Which doesn't seem that big actually

I'm open minded about it and do think we should invest some money in research. But like the early stages of covid there is a lot of speculation without good data.

With the data that is out there and the apparent concern over cwd, I can't believe we still allow baiting in MS with the exception of the cwd positive areas. It's likely already in other places and spreading, but there isn't testing.

Look at South Converse Wyoming. For many years Wyoming ignored the issues. It’s been five years since I’ve looked at their data, but at that time there was a prediction that both the mule deer and whitetail herd in that area would die out over them next 40 years.

As for baiting, that is a HUGE social-economic-political discussion. In many parts of the country, there are two generations of hunters who don’t know any other way to successfully kill deer and the resistance to taking that practice away is substantial.