Colorado point creep survey

[Indian Summer]

Sitting on 10 and in no hurry to cash in.

 

[cnelk]

Its actually pretty easy to figure out point creep - just look at the 'Pre-Draw Applicants' and compare that to the 'Post-Draw Successful'

You will see how many applicants are 'waiting in line' [assuming they stay in their lane]

 

[Gear-Reviewer]

I’ve never applied for a tag and plan on burning my 4 points this year if I can draw... I’m sure there’s more than just myself, but on normal years I totally agree you can get a very good idea.

 

[OneShot]

Its actually pretty easy to figure out point creep - just look at the 'Pre-Draw Applicants' and compare that to the 'Post-Draw Successful'

You will see how many applicants are 'waiting in line' [assuming they stay in their lane]

Actually this year is not going to be easy to predict. I’ve had 10+ guys message me between here and other forums about units. They’re all applying with 3-10 more points more than what the tag took last year to draw. Guys with high points are coming out and dumping them this year knowing Colorado is trying to kill off the mature bucks.

 

[street]

Its actually pretty easy to figure out point creep - just look at the 'Pre-Draw Applicants' and compare that to the 'Post-Draw Successful'

You will see how many applicants are 'waiting in line' [assuming they stay in their lane]

Unfortunately all the preference point only applicants over the years haven’t shown which lane they're in.

 

[cnelk]

Unfortunately all the preference point only applicants over the years haven’t shown which lane they're in.

Even the PP Only applicants had better look at the PreDraw Application numbers before they apply.

 

[jlvandersnick]

I'm thinking it will take 4-5 more points this year as compared to last year

 

[Steve O]

Yep I have 15 going in on a hunt that takes WAY less than that. Circumstances caused me to have all these points amd it won’t happen again. 4th season or bust baby...

 

[timekiller13]

I'm dropping 3 pts on a unit that historically has taken 1 pt.

 

[NABG Hunter]

Its actually pretty easy to figure out point creep - just look at the 'Pre-Draw Applicants' and compare that to the 'Post-Draw Successful'

You will see how many applicants are 'waiting in line' [assuming they stay in their lane]

But that is only part of the equation. This isn't taking into account that it's a much later season this year. This year is the latest it has ever been, and ever will be, under the current 5-year management plan. A big reason people save points is to get a later hunt. The recent 5-year plan has given us later hunts, so some people will want to burn their points to get out of the point-creep rat race. Some people have been applying in hope of a 3rd season hunt, but now with the later season dates some of them will stop saving for the 3rd season and apply for the new 2nd season which effectively means they would be hunting "between" the old 2nd & 3rd season dates.

 

[cnelk]

But that is only part of the equation. This isn't taking into account that it's a much later season this year. This year is the latest it has ever been, and ever will be, under the current 5-year management plan. A big reason people save points is to get a later hunt. The recent 5-year plan has given us later hunts, so some people will want to burn their points to get out of the point-creep rat race. Some people have been applying in hope of a 3rd season hunt, but now with the later season dates some of them will stop saving for the 3rd season and apply for the new 2nd season which effectively means they would be hunting "between" the old 2nd & 3rd season dates.

Ya'll better hope the tag allotment doesnt change from last year - and that wont be known until AFTER applications are due

 

[OneShot]

I think everyone should apply for Wy, Montana, Idaho and NM until we get the preference points figured out in CO. Not everyone will be getting a participation trophy this year.

 

[mackparrish]

I am applying for a unit with 2 more points than needed in the past.
It is a high tag allocation unit so I hope some of the previous comments are correct about higher tag units not being affected as much. Fingers crossed!

 

[swampokie]

So I should expect my 2 point muzz deer unit to be plentiful on the leftover list?? Dammit im burning 3 on it

 

[NABG Hunter]

I am applying for a unit with 2 more points than needed in the past.
Fingers crossed!

Our group is applying with 3-4 more points than what was required last year.

 

[MRC]

I applied for a unit with five more points than it took last year and I took a chance and booked a room already. I was willing to bet the price of a room but I wouldn’t bet my life on drawing!

 

[RogerSanchez]

I applied for a unit that required 3 points last year for second season (I have 8 points)


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[Nickofthewoods]

GMU's with the largest gap in points differential between 3rd and 4th season will probably be the hardest to predict and draw this year. An area that typically took 0-2 points for 3rd, but maybe 6-10 for 4th will probably see a huge spike in 3rd season applicants with people obviously trying to land what is typically a 4th season hunt during 3rd this year. Makes sense though, you get first whack at the bucks showing up to rut plus 2 extra days to hunt. Also, some people can't or won't bail on Thanksgiving with family to hunt 4th this year. Several people I know who have been saving their points in the 5-13 point range are attempting to use them on 3rd season hunts this year that only took 1-2 points to draw last year.

I predict a lot of 3rd season applicants are going to be disappointed when a 2 point 3rd season hunt takes 4-8 points to draw this year. I used my one point to just try and get a close to home 2nd season tag that typically take 0-1 to draw and I'm a little worried I wont be hunting deer this year. Good luck to all who applied.

 

[dihardhunter]

GMU's with the largest gap in points differential between 3rd and 4th season will probably be the hardest to predict and draw this year. An area that typically took 0-2 points for 3rd, but maybe 6-10 for 4th will probably see a huge spike in 3rd season applicants with people obviously trying to land what is typically a 4th season hunt during 3rd this year. Makes sense though, you get first whack at the bucks showing up to rut plus 2 extra days to hunt. Also, some people can't or won't bail on Thanksgiving with family to hunt 4th this year. Several people I know who have been saving their points in the 5-13 point range are attempting to use them on 3rd season hunts this year that only took 1-2 points to draw last year.

I predict a lot of 3rd season applicants are going to be disappointed when a 2 point 3rd season hunt takes 4-8 points to draw this year. I used my one point to just try and get a close to home 2nd season tag that typically take 0-1 to draw and I'm a little worried I wont be hunting deer this year. Good luck to all who applied.

This 1000%.

Only so many "new 2nd season dates are the old 3rd season calendar" (same said for 3rd and 4th seasons) coupons out there, and people are idiots not to try and take advantage of the coupon. Especially given the probability that if you don't redeem your points now, they will be worth even less next year and the year after that due to truncated age structure. Problem is only so many coupons will be honored by the manufacturer. Only so many discounted tags on the shelf.

 

[Ridgerunner]

All great posts and thoughts so far. I believe that there is also some self fulfilling prophecies out there, this change has been talked about for years, guys start posting on forums what they are putting in for and how many points over they applied with, thousands of guys read that and then there is another wave of folks perhaps shifting to different units and applying with significantly more points. I think in some units it is going to be mindblowing how much higher its going to jump, others pretty minimal. I know the last 4 years I've just been banking, I jumped in this year on a unit that I'll be borderline to draw, I'm not holding my breath but I'm not counting on drawing it for sure.