Colorado draw odds- any bets?

[Chad E]

For the big three species there is no question there will be more people buying points now without the need for fronting the money and I think in 3 years you will see draw odds reflect this. I think more people will also buy points for elk and deer but the interesting thing will be whether or not they are point buyers or people actually chasing hunts. I think its very likely that a good amount of the "new" applicants getting points will simply hold them for awhile with no plans and then somewhere down there road when a price increase comes up or some change in the application process we will see a ton of points cashed in and draw odds plummet. I can see no way that this does anything but boost point creep and hurt draw odds in the long run.

 

[ColoradoV]

It will be interesting once the numbers are run after the draws to see how many more folks this year. I would bet it is a lot or applications will be up 30+% for residents and would be at least that for non residents.. I am talking elk and deer as well as sheep/goat/moose.

What do some of you guys think how many more applications or what actual percent increase will there be this year? From what I have seen or I personally I know of over 30 people putting in for different tags than did last year. Some are starting the moose/goat/sheep but a lot are deer and elk. Many non res friends who moved out of state entire familys bought a fishing license and put in for the lot this year.

Make no mistake the low point units will see a jump over the next 3 years for all limited elk and deer then in 3 years sheep/goat/moose will see the impact of the change that I believe will be siginificant enough to be noticed.

 

[robby denning]

It will be interesting once the numbers are run after the draws to see how many more folks this year. I would bet it is a lot or applications will be up 30+% for residents and would be at least that for non residents.. I am talking elk and deer as well as sheep/goat/moose.

What do some of you guys think how many more applications or what actual percent increase will there be this year? From what I have seen or I personally I know of over 30 people putting in for different tags than did last year. Some are starting the moose/goat/sheep but a lot are deer and elk. Many non res friends who moved out of state entire familys bought a fishing license and put in for the lot this year.

Make no mistake the low point units will see a jump over the next 3 years for all limited elk and deer then in 3 years sheep/goat/moose will see the impact of the change that I believe will be siginificant enough to be noticed.

I wouldn’t be surly if you are right.


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[JustHunt]

No doubt the trophy specie odds will be worse. For deer and elk hunt, I think that the units that take 3 to 5 points will probably see the largest decrease in odds, with the 5+ point units having somewhat worse odds in years to come. Don't know what it will do to the leftover and 0 or 1 pt units, but somehow I don't think it will affect those odds as much. This sceme is to make money selling points. Hunters love their points. Can't build points when you put in for a zero point unit that you can only draw as a first choice. Most people aren't in the game to hunt zero point units. There either in the game to build a few points and have a nice hunt once every 3, 4 or 5 years or one epic hunt every decade or so. Make no mistake, the easy to draw units are easy to draw for a reason. Doesn't mean a big buck won't come out of easy to draw unit, just a lot tougher hunt than units that take a number of years to draw.

 

[Brianb3]

So it’s cheap to enter. 31$ for all species but isn’t there a 40$ per point fee after the draw? Does anyone know how that works? And I do like Co new website but sucks for odds.

Pretty sure MT will be a 60-70% draw this year as well. Sign of the times. Can’t we go back to a struggling economy with out facetwitigrham?


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[rolocasi]

Not sure how it works but I heard a rumor that if you purchase a cheap fishing license than you don’t pay the $40 per species. Anyone know if it’s true? Like a way of bypassing the system.


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[ahlgringo]

Not sure how it works but I heard a rumor that if you purchase a cheap fishing license than you don’t pay the $40 per species. Anyone know if it’s true? Like a way of bypassing the system.


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It has to be a season license, so no, 1 day fishing license will not work


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[Joe Schmo]

There is still a fee, $30-40 per species i think, if you don't get an annual license or had any license the year prior. So, if you are just collecting points, you could be out a few hundred dollars if you don't pay attention to the rules.

Last year I bought a fishing license so it was only $16 for a deer and elk point.

 

[elkduds]

My guesses: 40% increase from NRs this year for elk, deer, big 3. Half that (20%) for resident deer, elk. 30% resident increase for big 3. Return/reissue will be busier as well, @ least 25% more active. NR point creep will @ least double the average annual creep of recent years, w resident creep being higher as well, but by less than NR. I'll bet an ice cold red hot on it

 

[Trial153]

Colorado is a freaking train wreck

 

[rolocasi]

I can see point creep going up next year, I applied for the first time for the trophy species when the old way would have prevented me from doing so. I also have friends and family applying who otherwise would never have had. More $$ for CO, unfortunately it will be at the cost of point creep and less opportunity.


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[cody covey]

better hope you draw the big 3 in the next 3 years. Otherwise your odds will go way down when these new guys are eligible to put in.

 

[robie]

Sad to see for the big 3. I find it hard to believe it will change the deer/elk/antelope game much considering you could just put it on your credit card. The way most people abuse credit I doubt it was much of a limiting factor.

I liked that they made you front a check for the big 3 forcing people to really think about if it was the right decision for them. Not just oh hell why not its only $3, not thinking if they can really afford the $2211 if they draw.

Like others have said they are going to sucker people in with the $3 nonsense, we can all take bets for how long it will be $100 for a sheep point for NR and most likely -1$ for residents.

One thing the state won't do is touch their OTC units, I heard one of the podcast guys state that NR OTC Bull tags make up a majority of the CO Fish and Game budget. I would love to see the actual breakdown if anyone has it. Best part is NR CO Bull tag goes from $644 to $661 and residents gets a $3 decrease to $49. I didn't realize the state of CO experienced deflation while the rest of the nation had inflation they needed to increase tag fees to track with.

 

[swampokie]

Sad to see for the big 3. I find it hard to believe it will change the deer/elk/antelope game much considering you could just put it on your credit card. The way most people abuse credit I doubt it was much of a limiting factor.

I liked that they made you front a check for the big 3 forcing people to really think about if it was the right decision for them. Not just oh hell why not its only $3, not thinking if they can really afford the $2211 if they draw.

Like others have said they are going to sucker people in with the $3 nonsense, we can all take bets for how long it will be $100 for a sheep point for NR and most likely -1$ for residents.

One thing the state won't do is touch their OTC units, I heard one of the podcast guys state that NR OTC Bull tags make up a majority of the CO Fish and Game budget. I would love to see the actual breakdown if anyone has it. Best part is NR CO Bull tag goes from $644 to $661 and residents gets a $3 decrease to $49. I didn't realize the state of CO experienced deflation while the rest of the nation had inflation they needed to increase tag fees to track with.

This is good stuff here! If nr will pay it they will charge it. No ones fault except our own.

 

[Nomad]

This is good stuff here! If nr will pay it they will charge it. No ones fault except our own.

I might move to Colorado, just out of spite.

 

[rolocasi]

I’d move there in a heartbeat if my wife would let me. Those resident deer odds are amazing. Too bad CO has become just as liberal as CA.


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[Nomad]

Well I damn sure wouldn't move to Denver! Folks on the western slope seem alright.

 

[CoHiCntry]

I might move to Colorado, just out of spite.

You might as well... there's almost as many Texas plates around here as local Colorado plates.

 

[sneaky]

I'm still debating just buying a preference point because I'm not sure I'll have time for CO this fall. What's that gonna cost for a donation to CPW?

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[Nomad]

Sneaky... If you had a Colo license last year, it will be $13 ($10 for habitat stamp and $3 for the points). If you didn't have a license, tack on another $40... I think.

I finalized my app this morning and the final message on my account page said "Your order is completed. You will receive a confirmation email shortly.", along with an order #... but I never did receive a confirmation email. Anyone else not receive an email?