Bitcoin

[Idaboy]

I saw a good breakdown on investments and if people aren’t getting at minimum 14% yoy they are falling behind.

Most years my retirement returns have been around 16-18%, during Covid it hit 35%. But after much studying it became clear that 18% wasn’t going to cut it. Last year I moved a small amount of that account into a btc fund. That move pushed me up to 52%.

I believe people will begin looking for better returns and I want to be in position before that happens.

A lot of folks have told me I got lucky, maybe I did, or maybe the signs are on the wall.


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Falling behind what?

 

[MountainTracker]

Falling behind what?

The need to stay afloat, the need to make more than 14% on assets otherwise you’ll just be treading water.

I posted this in the stock traders thread.




There has been an almost 80% increase in price over five years.

80/5=16 percent increase yoy. From this example 14% is not even cutting it. This is a reflection of over printing, which at this point can’t stop. The last report I saw was showing about $1T needed to be printed every 90 days just to pay interest on our debit.

The S&P has an average roi of 10% throughout its lifetime, but with adjusting for inflation some reports show it’s closer to 6%.

Nasdaq is at 13% over the last ten years.

BTC 10 year total return is 35,815%, 5 years is 942%, and one year is 43%.

Hope that helps explain the falling behind comment.


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[pacoalcracker]

Just remember, the higher the return the more risk you are taking on to get it. It's called "risk premium". There are no free lunches in investing. Never was and never will be. If you have a lot in BTC or crypto in general, it's at way more risk of loss than if you had it in Apple, Meta, or a solid growth mutual fund/etf. If you dispute that, then you have no idea what you are talking about. I have no interest in crypto even if it wasn't a bubble. Have you seen GOLD lately?

You can't use the current inflated price of homes to dictate what average returns are necessary to keep up. The first deep, lengthy recession with high unemployment will reset those prices pretty quickly...and lots of other inflated prices. Stock markets have corrections/bear markets to reset prices and so do economies.

 

[2531usmc]

Just remember, the higher the return the more risk you are taking on to get it. It's called "risk premium". There are no free lunches in investing. Never was and never will be. If you have a lot in BTC or crypto in general, it's at way more risk of loss than if you had it in Apple, Meta, or a solid growth mutual fund/etf. If you dispute that, then you have no idea what you are talking about. I have no interest in crypto even if it wasn't a bubble. Have you seen GOLD lately?

You can't use the current inflated price of homes to dictate what average returns are necessary to keep up. The first deep, lengthy recession with high unemployment will reset those prices pretty quickly...and lots of other inflated prices. Stock markets have corrections/bear markets to reset prices and so do economies.

I’m kinda thinking that deep, lengthy recession is right around the corner. And once retail starts to sell it will become a tsunami

 

[MountainTracker]

Have you seen GOLD lately?
.

Are you saying gold has been a good investment over 10 years or just as a short term hold?

Gold ten year total return is around 150%, so 1.5x….. not sure that is going to cut it. That backs what I was saying about 14% just treading water.


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[Idaboy]

The need to stay afloat, the need to make more than 14% on assets otherwise you’ll just be treading water.

I posted this in the stock traders thread.

View attachment 860040


There has been an almost 80% increase in price over five years.

80/5=16 percent increase yoy. From this example 14% is not even cutting it. This is a reflection of over printing, which at this point can’t stop. The last report I saw was showing about $1T needed to be printed every 90 days just to pay interest on our debit.

The S&P has an average roi of 10% throughout its lifetime, but with adjusting for inflation some reports show it’s closer to 6%.

Nasdaq is at 13% over the last ten years.

BTC 10 year total return is 35,815%, 5 years is 942%, and one year is 43%.

Hope that helps explain the falling behind comment.


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Well, that's interesting, but I guess it's all relative to what is needed from a portfolio.. Growth, income, etc.....treading water, when everything else is going down, is not necessary bad, every portfolio will have its own purpose, depending on the needs of the owner

 

[rickyw]

Would it be possible for a government to seize bitcoin, like the US government did with gold back in the early 1900s?

And, Could satoshi decide to increase the supply once its value goes sky high?

 

[eddielasvegas]

Would it be possible for a government to seize bitcoin, like the US government did with gold back in the early 1900s?

And, Could satoshi decide to increase the supply once its value goes sky high?

It was not in the early 1900's but in 1933 during the GD.

If you can't hold it, you don't own it so you bet your sweet bippy they can. It really was not a confiscation, but still typical gubment overstep. BTC makes it much easier to do this IMHO.

Not sure how BTC works, but I see it no differenly than a company issues new shares of their stock, but maybe someone here can comment if it's even possible.


Eddi

 

[ozyclint]

How can a system based on a finite amount (BTC) continue to provide 16% returns yoy?

Sounds like our current fiat system.
If there's $2 in existence and I loan it to you on the promise that you pay it back plus interest, where does the money for the interest come from?
Ta da, currency creation.

 

[gearguywb]

14% treading water....not hardly.

You used one data point (housing cost), which has been significantly impacted by covid.

Anytime you use a single data point you are putting blinders on. If you can make 6-7% per year over the long run you are doing really well. As others have said, the higher the return, the greater the risk. There is no free ride

Example:

My F350 gets 26 mpg. It did...coming down from Eisenhower tunnel

 

[2531usmc]

Would it be possible for a government to seize bitcoin, like the US government did with gold back in the early 1900s?

And, Could satoshi decide to increase the supply once its value goes sky high?

As the government demonstrated during the Covid era, they can do whatever they want

 

[WoodDuck]

Would it be possible for a government to seize bitcoin, like the US government did with gold back in the early 1900s?

And, Could satoshi decide to increase the supply once its value goes sky high?

The government could seize bitcoin on a cold wallet by force in the same way they could seize your other household possessions. They cannot seize bitcoin from a cold wallet without either having the wallet itself, or having the seed phrase to the wallet. This is very different from the fiat system where banks can freeze accounts of anyone perceived to be criminal. Bitcoin is truly yours and does not rely on a third party to transact.

Regarding increasing supply, there is no singular person or group making decisions about the Bitcoin network. 21,000,000 max supply is hard coded into the software. The only way max supply COULD increase is if the network forks and a majority of the miners/nodes agree to adopt the new system. IMO this is extremely unlikely.

 

[WoodDuck]

How can a system based on a finite amount (BTC) continue to provide 16% returns yoy?

Sounds like our current fiat system.
If there's $2 in existence and I loan it to you on the promise that you pay it back plus interest, where does the money for the interest come from?
Ta da, currency creation.

You are valuing returns in USD. Any asset with a fixed supply will most likely continue to increase in value when denominated in an inflationary currency. Land would be an example of this.

Bitcoin is very different from our current fiat system. It is impossible to “print” Bitcoin into creation. Miners are rewarded with 3.125 Bitcoin every 10 minutes in exchange for using energy to secure the network. There’s no switch to magically generate more.

 

[MountainTracker]

14% treading water....not hardly.

You used one data point (housing cost), which has been significantly impacted by covid.

Anytime you use a single data point you are putting blinders on. If you can make 6-7% per year over the long run you are doing really well. As others have said, the higher the return, the greater the risk. There is no free ride

Example:

My F350 gets 26 mpg. It did...coming down from Eisenhower tunnel

The average % of M2 money supply is around 8% and growing. The s&p is about 9% returns on average, before inflation. If you are making 6-7% returns you are only keeping pace with inflation and monetary expansion.

Sorry 6-7 % isn’t going to cut it, but if people want to stay on the Tredmill have at it.


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[MountainTracker]

How can a system based on a finite amount (BTC) continue to provide 16% returns yoy?

Sounds like our current fiat system.
If there's $2 in existence and I loan it to you on the promise that you pay it back plus interest, where does the money for the interest come from?
Ta da, currency creation.

I appreciate all your comments on this thread bc it gives people to opportunity to respond on why btc is a hedge against debasement.

What I find interesting is you have yet to offer any alternative to btc, with facts(charts,graphs, articles), that can protect against debasement.


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[Historybuff]

You normies going to help us bring down central banking or not? There is a couple guys here posting some serious bullish news almost daily. Unfortunately so many completely wrong opinions of what bitcoin is. Like seriously, no clue. It's so risky to not own any. All I can say to some of you is have fun staying poor. And I can almost guarantee by this fall, this thread will turn into a long thread of people scrambling to find out where and how to buy and store bitcoin.

 

[Braaap]

You normies going to help us bring down central banking or not? There is a couple guys here posting some serious bullish news almost daily. Unfortunately so many completely wrong opinions of what bitcoin is. Like seriously, no clue. It's so risky to not own any. All I can say to some of you is have fun staying poor. And I can almost guarantee by this fall, this thread will turn into a long thread of people scrambling to find out where and how to buy and store bitcoin.

What happens this fall?

 

[Dawg In Montana]

The need to stay afloat, the need to make more than 14% on assets otherwise you’ll just be treading water.

I posted this in the stock traders thread.

View attachment 860040


There has been an almost 80% increase in price over five years.

80/5=16 percent increase yoy. From this example 14% is not even cutting it. This is a reflection of over printing, which at this point can’t stop. The last report I saw was showing about $1T needed to be printed every 90 days just to pay interest on our debit.

The S&P has an average roi of 10% throughout its lifetime, but with adjusting for inflation some reports show it’s closer to 6%.

Nasdaq is at 13% over the last ten years.

BTC 10 year total return is 35,815%, 5 years is 942%, and one year is 43%.

Hope that helps explain the falling behind comment.


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That’s an increase in household income (i.e. what you pay taxes on) compared to housing costs That is totally separate from investment returns, which have been 10%-ish over the long term as measured by the S&P index return - think of stock market returns.

There is no one that would say getting 16-18% investment returns is insufficient for general retiring planning - that is doubling you money every four to five years.

 

[DapperDan]

What happens this fall?

Kinda what I was thinking


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[DapperDan]

Anyone here trading BTC like a stock? Or is it a buy and hold for most of you?


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