I need to drop a stink bomb real quick fellas.
I'm gonna try to tie in a few major issues occurring simultaneously in the Brooks Range from Canada to the Bering Sea. Here are the broad strokes:
1. Four major caribou herds in the range. From west to east, they include the Western Arctic Herd, Teshekpuk Herd, Central Arctic Herd, and Porcupine Herd. Three of those are in significant declines of at least 50% of each herd's total population. The Porcupine Herd is doing well and most likely received CAH numbers since they share ranges.
I support a theory that Arctic warming trends are causing caribou migrations to slow down to coincide with cooler fall weather and climate periods. In the past 20 years this timing has began later and later in August to early September. This "change" trend is causing all kinds of problems for hunters who rely on caribou to be on time and closest to their freezer. If they're late or costs more to find them...tension is created, the cost is greater, people get anxious.
2. Federal Public Lands in western Alaska's GMU 23 (think Indiana is size) was closed to caribou hunting this year. If you dont live there, you dont have rights to hunt caribou on federal lands. Approximately 350 hunters will search for new places to hunt caribou in the Brooks Range. Where will this user group go? Central Arctic is 60% declined, hunting is already saturated. The Porcupine Herd is getting a lot of buzz on sites this. My spider senses are up...
3. The BLM is in the process of shedding up to 13 million acres from public hands to the state of Alaska and development industries. This plan will shape the Central Brooks Range and its caribou populations. Hunting could be exploited where resources are thin. Hunters like you and me will search farther for remote ops and solid backcountry experiences, knowing we can't go west... The Porcupine Herd will be swarmed, and its remote river character will begin to open up like maggots on a gut pile.
4. The Porcupine Herd has grown and scattered into areas of historic use. This is compounded by the fact that there are only a hand full of navigable rivers in that southern slope landmass of GMU 25A. These rivers are already saturated. I have stopped sending hunters to the more popular choices for caribou because the experience has degraded. Success remains consistent because saturation has been reached with air charters who transport these groups. The maximum limit is set by the air charters schedules each year. I'm booked until 2020 (and could be full to 2025 if I allowed it) The demand is high.
If you're wanting a caribou experience, pay attention to the trend that pushing hunters east. Focus on GMU 23 and 26A. Federal lands might still be closed to hunting caribou in 2017/18, but the state owns the land surface below high water mark, even on federal waterways. If I were wanting an adventure...sometimes you gotta go find it!
IMO, I'd avoid the Eastern Brooks herds for a few years and let this storm blow over. Alaska 2020 will have adaptive consequences for public land hunting opportunities.
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