Am I Throwing Away $150 Per Year On Wyoming Sheep?

[BuzzH]

I based my hypothesis off of current known data. If that changes my opinion will change. If the odds to draw sheep in WY jump to 1-2% I will be first in line applying.

….and wayyyyy behind those that played the long game and kept applying.

Also, current data doesn't mean squat next year, 5 years from now, and 10 years from now.

Math doesn't solve the fickle nature of people applying, or not, for tags.

 

[BeaverHunter]

I could use more complicated math but it would take way too much time to prove the point.
I was trying to keep things very simple and neat as possible to get the point across.
And I am realizing that even if I knew the exact demographics of the point holders and I had the actuarial tables to support....my proof would fall on deaf ears.

I gave my argument that the OP is in fact "throwing away $150 applying for sheep" like his post was asking. But I think this is one of those..."what do you think of xyz product?"...the person asking the question is just looking for validation or confirmation that they made the correct decision and wouldn't listen to any counter points anyway.

You are saying that I am not considering all variables and then you base your whole argument on those same variables?

I based my hypothesis off of current known data. If that changes my opinion will change. If the odds to draw sheep in WY jump to 1-2% I will be first in line applying.

I think if you read through my posts that I was and am still open to different opinions and did NOT have my mind made up on whether I should keep buying points in Wyoming. I even admitted that you made some good points and gave me something to think about. I didn't start this thread for validation to keep applying in Wyoming, quite the contrary I started this thread actually hoping that most everyone would tell me to throw in the towel so I could save $200 every year.

But some people have made some good points in this thread on both sides regarding my situation. As of now I plan to keep applying and buying points in Wyoming. At least for now. Maybe I'll be one of the fickle people mentioned and drop out years from now, thus helping other peoples odds.

 

[MtGomer]

According to the newest epic Outdoors Podcast, there is going to be legislation in Wyoming to reduce nonresident tag allocation. A decrease of only a little would eliminate a NR random tag in several sheep units.


Also, some people don’t realize that your points in Wyoming do nothing for you in the random draw. A person 1 point under max has the same chance in the random round as a first time applicant. It is a pure preference point system.
You probably know this, but a lot of guys don’t.

 

[Jimss]

I definitely was off with my guided hunt $ figure....I didn't lie...I just pulled something out of somewhere....right? Most of the outfitters I checked prices on were around $9,500. My guess is that in 4 or 5 years the price will reach the $15,000 I mentioned!

I myself like draw stats to narrow down which tags I apply for and where. I have a problem tossing my hard earned $ to the wind and like solid numbers to predict my future. Unless Wyo changes it's pref pt system it's pretty easy to forecast if you ever stand a chance to draw a tag in your lifetime...even if 1/2 or 3/4 of the applicants with higher points than you drop out. As mentioned in my previous post there are currently a lot better draw odds in other states than Wyo unless you currently have a gob of Wyo pref pts.

As MtGomer mentioned in his post above there is a good chance that Wyo may cut the % of sheep tags that go to nonres. This will likely cut the few sheep tags that are offered in the random draw (currently only 4 tags).

If you like draw odds here's a little food for thought. Wyoming sheep tags in the random draw have slowly but surely dropped since 2010. In 2010 there were 10 random tags, 2012 there were 8 tags, 2017 and 2018 there were 7 tags. In 2019 Wyo random nonres tags hit rock bottom at 4 tags. There is definitely a downward trend in nonres Wyo sheep tags. There is no reason to think that Wyo sheep and tags will increase when the 10 year trend is downward!

There has been a consistent increase in nonres applicants until the last 3 years when applicants have stablized. 2010 there were 1680 nonres applicants, 2012 1780 applicants, 2017 there were 2400 applicants. Since 2017 applicants have remained pretty close to the same. These numbers don't account for the hundreds of applicants that just apply for pref pts.

 

[Molon Labe]

….and wayyyyy behind those that played the long game and kept applying.

Also, current data doesn't mean squat next year, 5 years from now, and 10 years from now.

Math doesn't solve the fickle nature of people applying, or not, for tags.

You are missing my point.

The number of points you have means nothing unless you are max point pool. So you can come in and out of the WY draw as you please. Random draw is all you should be considering at 9pts. And if you are considering random draw at the current rates you are better off gambling...this I have proved beyond a reasonable doubt. You can at least agree that...

Look through my post again...I know I am using simple math...but it’s math and it works.

current data does matter...name one state out west that has increasing draw odds? Or more LE tags? Look at the trends...WY is probably one of the worst...

 

[BuzzH]

Here's some real simple math.

If you fail to apply, statistically your odds are ZERO of ever drawing.

I don't like that math, so I apply and draw.

 

[BuzzH]

You are missing my point.

The number of points you have means nothing unless you are max point pool. So you can come in and out of the WY draw as you please. Random draw is all you should be considering at 9pts. And if you are considering random draw at the current rates you are better off gambling...this I have proved beyond a reasonable doubt. You can at least agree that...

Look through my post again...I know I am using simple math...but it’s math and it works.

current data does matter...name one state out west that has increasing draw odds? Or more LE tags? Look at the trends...WY is probably one of the worst...

I think you're missing the point...the "max point pools" for both moose and sheep are not all drawn by maximum point holders. In other words, you don't need to be in the max point pool (25 points now in WY) to draw moose and sheep tags in the preference draw. You do need to be in the top point pool in the area you apply for, but in my case, the tag I drew this past summer I drew with 5 less than max.

When I first started applying for points 19 years ago, there were ZERO tags drawn in my point pool like you did, and it wasn't looking too good at the time. After 5 years, things started looking a bit better, people forget to apply, some draw, and the pools your in as well as the pools ahead of you all shrink. about 14-15 years in, my point pool was starting to get preference tags or right on the bubble.

Before you know it, you draw with 19 from the preference pool, even though there were over 700 people in front of me, or in my point pool...I hunted sheep last fall and 705 others just got another point (even though they could have drawn my tag).

Just looking at the point totals, doesn't mean a lot...what matters is where, and if they apply. Lots of reasons why those in front of me that could have had my tag didn't apply/applied in areas where they didn't have enough points to draw.

If there is considerable declines in applicants in front of you (which I believe there will be), even with only 9 points now in another 15 years, you're going to be much closer, or perhaps even in the point pool that could draw in the preference pool in some areas. Maybe not too, I get it.

If you jump in and out, you're always going to just be chasing a random tag and will never be in a position to potentially draw in the preference pass.

We're all big kids, we can make our own decisions...and I personally don't care if people apply or not. But, my theory is, life isn't a trial run, and I'm not leaving applications unapplied for even if the odds are long.

 

[MtGomer]

I think that a person should apply.
A person with no or low points that is simply buying a point without being in the draw is throwing $150 away.
Your points as a NR getting started this late in the game are useless. The only thing useful is to actual put your name in the hat for that 1:450 or whatever it is now odds of drawing a random tag.

i apply every year and gain my point but I have trouble imagining being in the max point pool someday. Maybe it is possible. Time will tell

 

[BuzzH]

I think that a person should apply.
A person with no or low points that is simply buying a point without being in the draw is throwing $150 away.
Your points as a NR getting started this late in the game are useless. The only thing useful is to actual put your name in the hat for that 1:450 or whatever it is now odds of drawing a random tag.

i apply every year and gain my point but I have trouble imagining being in the max point pool someday. Maybe it is possible. Time will tell

Yep.

Keep applying, you may get there with enough points to get to a place where tags are plucked from your point pool.

May have to pay for the tag/hunt with a social security check....

 

[BeaverHunter]

Yep.

Keep applying, you may get there with enough points to get to a place where tags are plucked from your point pool.

May have to pay for the tag/hunt with a social security check....

I know for myself personally I don’t look at the big picture. I get caught up in the right now. If I keep applying ,20 years from now I’ll have 30 sheep points and “only” be 55. I like my odds the more I think about it. Of course there could be 4200 other people in front of me thinking the same thing, but I doubt it, most people don’t think long term and shit happens to everybody. If this website exists still when I draw my wyoming sheep tag, I’ll post a pic on this thread. Even if that’s 30 years from now.

 

[Molon Labe]

I know for myself personally I don’t look at the big picture. I get caught up in the right now. If I keep applying ,20 years from now I’ll have 30 sheep points and “only” be 55. I like my odds the more I think about it. Of course there could be 4200 other people in front of me thinking the same thing, but I doubt it, most people don’t think long term and shit happens to everybody. If this website exists still when I draw my wyoming sheep tag, I’ll post a pic on this thread. Even if that’s 30 years from now.

Thats good...I hope you draw that tag! I get it. It’s fun to think and dream about hunts and the future.

Sorry if I’m coming off weird but I’m very process oriented and analytical. So I don’t leave room for hopes and dreams haha. I forget about that stuff...emotional responses and feelings have value to majority of people.

But please...In the mean time make sure you are applying to the states that have better odds at least before sending in for WY.

 

[Trial153]

If people dont think long term how in world are there so many poeple we so many many points in front of you that been putting in since the inception....

 

[MtGomer]

If you draw a tag 20 years from now with 30 points, it will be in the random round.
Of course the wild card is if Wyoming will ever change the system. Supposedly they’re looking at lowering the allocation of NR tags. If they do that, the next step may be to change the system so people actually have a chance to draw. Of course, they could not change the system and a boatload of people could drop out and you could end up sitting pretty good.

Point systems when tags are this limited just don’t work that well a few decades into it.

 

[cbeard64]

Lol always funny to see all the mental gymnastics some will put themselves through in order to justify saving themselves a couple of hundred bucks.
Also how so many equate all sheep hunts as the same (Dall hunt same as Rocky hunt same as Stone’s hunt, etc.) They are not.
There aren’t many chances to hunt Rocky Mountain bighorns. One of the few chances to do so is found in Wyoming. If you want a chance to hunt them, you spend the money and take your chances. If the money is worth more than the chance to hunt them to you, then you don’t. It’s that simple.
Neither choice is stupid. Don’t act all high and mighty because someone else makes a different choice than you do.

 

[MallardSX2]

The takeaway is that if you have the money to burn then go ahead and apply. I wouldnt stretch my family thin aplying for something that is that long of a shot. So I dont apply. I give the state enough of my money for what little opportunity I get.

 

[Steve O]

I have 20 Sheep points. One of my worst fears is WY will change the system rendering those points worthless. With the political power the outfitter’s lobby has, that contributes more to me getting an ulcer than my job.

 

[bowhuntrben]

If you fail to apply, statistically your odds are ZERO of ever drawing.

I recently had a training with one of the teachers being one of the brightest engineers in the industry. He made the comment not to worry about decimal places when 42 assumptions have been made leading up to your answer. The same rings true here. As Buzz pointed out, there are so many unknown variables that people are making assumptions about in the future that could significantly alter the equation. I get it that if you don't have the money, you have to select states/species not to apply for, but you have to understand that your math is most likely wrong. The answer could be right, but you can't really know. Buzz's math is the only one that is 100% correct.

I never put in for sheep but have invested in the points game in Wyoming for moose. I don't regret any of the money I've spent being in the game, but I do regret the one year money seemed tighter and I didn't get my point. I would really regret giving up now if 20 or 30 years down the line I look back and realize I could've had a tag had I not quit. I will be continuing to apply.

 

[cbeard64]

I have drawn a WY random moose tag, an AZ NR sheep tag, and a WY mountain goat tag. Killed fine animals on each hunt and gained lifetime memories.

I’m sure glad I let my “dream” side win out over my “analytical” side.

 

[Trial153]

Wyoming SF0094 | 2020 | Budget Session

Bill Text (2020-02-12) Hunting licenses-resident and nonresident. [Failed Introduction 1-28-1-0-0]

legiscan.com

 

[Steve O]

I’m going to be sick.