Am I Throwing Away $150 Per Year On Wyoming Sheep?

[Molon Labe]

Your not catching wy with 9. I dumped 13 points and I know at this point its all throwing good money after bad.
If you do spend the money for the point at least apply for unit with a possible random tag, You might as well get in the draw for the 150.
Otherwise Might as well burn the 150 vs just buy a point, at least you will get the heat out of it.

Dumped my 6 or 7pts when they bumped PP fee up couple years ago. That was the correct rational decision.

If you look at the best random draw odds...(.36%) 1 in 278 chance of drawing.

That means you value that tag at $55,555. Taking the $200 and dividing by .36%.
I've got a post from a year or two ago where I cover a thing I call perceived tag value.
If you are willing to take a chance with your money...you need to know your return on investment.
Would you be willing to pay $55,000 for that tag? I wouldn't. Therefore I dropped out of goat, moose and sheep in WY.

You are actually better off going to Vegas with your $200 and picking a number on the roulette wheel. Hitting that number (35xpayout) then putting it on red (2x payout)...let it ride again...red and let it ride...then red and let it ride for a third time. The odds of hitting all this....drumroll please.... ( .36%)
If you hit the exact number...then 3 color picks in a row you collect a check for $56,000.

With that winnings you can then purchase a fully guided Rocky hunt in Alberta...or a stone hunt. Plus pick up a very nice custom rifle and some extra travel.

So if you are willing to take those odds in the WY draw and think that tag is worth $55K...then you should be just as likely and much better off just gambling on a roulette wheel.

So the math says...no one should be applying into the random draw if they are not in one of the top three tiers for PP in WY.

Now if you take that $200/year and invest it in the market (8.9% return) for the next 29 yrs you would have around $29,000 at age 64. If you take a cheap dall hunt at 15,000 and add 2% inflation to that cost for the next 29yrs you will have a hunt cost of 27,170 when you are 64.

SO moral of the story for the OP. Drop your points and start saving. Or take your money and put it into raffle tickets...or Vegas. You are much better off with those options than giving into WY money grab.

 

[Jimss]

I guess I'm a little more conservative with the dollars I'm willing to spend on applying. I plain and simple look at draw odds and cost associated with applying. I tossed out Wyo and Montana sheep many years ago.

First and foremost I didn't like the idea of guide in wilderness in Wyo for nonres plus the fact that outfitters are now charging over $15,000 for a sheep hunt! One option worth considering is finding a Wyo resident to accompany a nonres as a guide but you better have a close friend that has plenty of time and is in top shape! If you have a gob of pts it may be worth staying in the game but if just starting out forget Wyo!

I choose states to apply where I knew I have a little better chance to draw than Wyo…..those being Colo, Idaho, Utah, and Nevada. Everyone that applies for sheep in Colo has a chance to draw a tag after they have 3 pref pts.

In 2019 there were 4 nonres Wyo random tags issued in 4 units (1 tag in each unit). There were roughly 2,400 applicants for those 4 tags issued ....pretty poor draw odds if you ask me! If you think it's worth spending $150/year with those odds go for it!

As a comparison I just looked in the Colo sheep stats and saw a pretty good sheep unit that had 1:55 odds for a nonres with 3+ pts. That is a chunk better than 1 in 280 to 1 in 800 draw odds in Wyo....and you won't be possibly spending $15,000 on a guided hunt!

Idaho is all random draw.....NV and Utah are bonus pt draw systems. Again, Colo is a possibility. If I were young and wanted to apply for sheep that's where I would invest my time and money. It isn't getting any cheaper to apply in multiple states so apply smartly!

 

[Trial153]

Dumped my 6 or 7pts when they bumped PP fee up couple years ago. That was the correct rational decision.

If you look at the best random draw odds...(.36%) 1 in 278 chance of drawing.

That means you value that tag at $55,555. Taking the $200 and dividing by .36%.
I've got a post from a year or two ago where I cover a thing I call perceived tag value.
If you are willing to take a chance with your money...you need to know your return on investment.
Would you be willing to pay $55,000 for that tag? I wouldn't. Therefore I dropped out of goat, moose and sheep in WY.

You are actually better off going to Vegas with your $200 and picking a number on the roulette wheel. Hitting that number (35xpayout) then putting it on red (2x payout)...let it ride again...red and let it ride...then red and let it ride for a third time. The odds of hitting all this....drumroll please.... ( .36%)
If you hit the exact number...then 3 color picks in a row you collect a check for $56,000.

With that winnings you can then purchase a fully guided Rocky hunt in Alberta...or a stone hunt. Plus pick up a very nice custom rifle and some extra travel.

So if you are willing to take those odds in the WY draw and think that tag is worth $55K...then you should be just as likely and much better off just gambling on a roulette wheel.

So the math says...no one should be applying into the random draw if they are not in one of the top three tiers for PP in WY.

Now if you take that $200/year and invest it in the market (8.9% return) for the next 29 yrs you would have around $29,000 at age 64. If you take a cheap dall hunt at 15,000 and add 2% inflation to that cost for the next 29yrs you will have a hunt cost of 27,170 when you are 64.

SO moral of the story for the OP. Drop your points and start saving. Or take your money and put it into raffle tickets...or Vegas. You are much better off with those options than giving into WY money grab.

Prepared to be scolded lol

 

[BeaverHunter]

Dumped my 6 or 7pts when they bumped PP fee up couple years ago. That was the correct rational decision.

If you look at the best random draw odds...(.36%) 1 in 278 chance of drawing.

That means you value that tag at $55,555. Taking the $200 and dividing by .36%.
I've got a post from a year or two ago where I cover a thing I call perceived tag value.
If you are willing to take a chance with your money...you need to know your return on investment.
Would you be willing to pay $55,000 for that tag? I wouldn't. Therefore I dropped out of goat, moose and sheep in WY.

You are actually better off going to Vegas with your $200 and picking a number on the roulette wheel. Hitting that number (35xpayout) then putting it on red (2x payout)...let it ride again...red and let it ride...then red and let it ride for a third time. The odds of hitting all this....drumroll please.... ( .36%)
If you hit the exact number...then 3 color picks in a row you collect a check for $56,000.

With that winnings you can then purchase a fully guided Rocky hunt in Alberta...or a stone hunt. Plus pick up a very nice custom rifle and some extra travel.

So if you are willing to take those odds in the WY draw and think that tag is worth $55K...then you should be just as likely and much better off just gambling on a roulette wheel.

So the math says...no one should be applying into the random draw if they are not in one of the top three tiers for PP in WY.

Now if you take that $200/year and invest it in the market (8.9% return) for the next 29 yrs you would have around $29,000 at age 64. If you take a cheap dall hunt at 15,000 and add 2% inflation to that cost for the next 29yrs you will have a hunt cost of 27,170 when you are 64.

SO moral of the story for the OP. Drop your points and start saving. Or take your money and put it into raffle tickets...or Vegas. You are much better off with those options than giving into WY money grab.

I understand what you’re saying which is why I started this thread.
But one thing you’re not factoring in is that my draw odds should(big hypothetical, I know) become much better as people in front of me drop out of the preference point game(throwing in the towel, death, hard times financially,etc) and I’m no longer in the random pool but drawing in the preference point pool. Based on the number of points I have and my age and the fact that I most likely will be moving to wyoming some day have led me to most likely decide to continue to buy points and apply for sheep in Wyoming. Most likely drawing 10-20 years from now as a resident.

 

[Molon Labe]

I understand what you’re saying which is why I started this thread.
But one thing you’re not factoring in is that my draw odds should(big hypothetical, I know) become much better as people in front of me drop out of the preference point game(throwing in the towel, death, hard times financially,etc) and I’m no longer in the random pool but drawing in the preference point pool. Based on the number of points I have and my age and the fact that I most likely will be moving to wyoming some day have led me to most likely decide to continue to buy points and apply for sheep in Wyoming. Most likely drawing 10-20 years from now as a resident.

Ok sounds good.
I didn't factor that stuff in because I don't know the demographics of the point holders and have no way of predicting that many variables. But I do know that if half the people die or drop out you are still waiting 50yrs for a tag.

An old salesmanager of mine said "Sell on emotion...people will look past the numbers if you can get them emotionally attached"

This rings true everyday of my life.

 

[Steve O]

I’m sure glad there are all you pragmatic dudes out there. I’m just going to continue dreaming and enjoying my tags!

You may have bad odds in the draws but they are infinitely better than those who skip the draws.

There are no good NR sheep odds save the MT Unlimiteds...Idaho’s odds are very deceiving. They only show the odds of the few units that had a NR draw.

If you want to hunt Bighorn sheep and have an actual chance to kill one (you have less chance of killing on in the Unlimited than drawing a LE tag) you need $30,000 or some luck in the state draws or a raffle.

 

[204guy]

I dont know if 10-20 yrs as a resident is realistic or not. Prob not. More like 20-35. Eventually your odds will be better as a NR due to your age and attrition. Lots of residents started buying points for their kids when they turned 12 because it cost $7- I think. I dont know how many NR are buying $150 points for their 12 yr old. Some no doubt, but there's going to be high attrition for those kids.

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[Trial153]

Your train of thought is also full of assumptions that may very well be proven erroneous.

Since the inception of preference points been when have you seen drawing odds become consistently better?
The truth is you have no idea who the point holders are, what their demographics are, and what is their social economic status is. It's just as likey that the applicants are in a similar economic position as you are. Statistically you are more likely closer to the mean then you'd like to admit.

You also not factoring in the potential for changes in the drawing process. For example is more tags are allocated randomly then applications mighy actually increase vs decrease, as the value of your points also degrade. If less tags are allocated randomly, the amount of the point holders above will also degrade your point worth.

The only ones with any positive expectation are those that got in on the ground floor.
All the rest of us should at least undertand the improbability of sucess that we are paying for.

 

[BeaverHunter]

Your train of thought is also full of assumptions that may very well be proven erroneous.

Since the inception of preference points been when have you seen drawing odds become consistently better?
The truth is you have no idea who the point holders are, what their demographics are, and what is their social economic status is. It's just as likey that the applicants are in a similar economic position as you are. Statistically you are more likely closer to the mean then you'd like to admit.

You also not factoring in the potential for changes in the drawing process. For example is more tags are allocated randomly then applications mighy actually increase vs decrease, as the value of your points also degrade. If less tags are allocated randomly, the amount of the point holders above will also degrade your point worth.

The only ones with any positive expectation are those that got in on the ground floor.
All the rest of us should at least undertand the improbability of sucess that we are paying for.

Aren't you using those same assumptions by guessing "I'm closer to the mean than I'd like to admit"? And there is people drawing sheep tags every year in states with short of max points on a regular basis so I don't have to get to max points to get into the preference point pool and out of the random draw.
Obviously I have no idea what will happen in the future no more so than the next guy. But I'm going to choose to not roll over and give up at age 35. I laid out my reasons why I will most likely be continuing to apply and buying sheep points for Wyoming. Hopefully a bunch of point holders in front of me will listen to your advice and throw in the towel. And for the record I hate point systems as much as anybody.

 

[npm352]

A tahr in NZ is not a desert sheep, or a dall sheep, or a Rocky Mountain Bighorn either.

I wouldn't trade one of those for every tahr in New Zealand.

About like saying, don't waste your money hunting elk, go shoot feral hogs in Texas...

Not that there's anything wrong with hunting tahr or feral hogs, its just not the same as hunting elk and sheep.

My point was, yes, someone starting now is effectively throwing away $150/year on WY preference points. There is no worse state to start applying. I still hold to that. I agree that Tahr are not as cool as Rockys, Dalls or Deserts. But WY is a pipe dream starting now or even 10 years ago. A guided Rocky hunt is $40k, Dall is $20k, and Desert is $50K. I hunted off peak season on public land on foot for Tahr for $1600 guided plus some frequent flier miles. It was a great hunt and I would have spent more money going DIY...got an old Tahr and two bonus Red deer stags. My point was that it is a comparable mountain hunt for worthy game. No one will argue that a 35 inch bighorn is inferior to a Tahr, but the odds are long starting now and I would rather hunt something than nothing. Many can afford a tahr...most cannot put 40K together to go hunt a Rocky in Alberta, and starting in WY is kind of silly. I have killed a Rocky, but the Tahr was a more difficult hunt in my experience but every hunt is different. How people rank the worthiness of game is very personal, but I wouldn't say bighorn to tahr is as big of a difference of elk versus a feral farm animal.

 

[Doc Holliday]

The reality is the guy to your left and right is diluting your chances, so if you can get online and convince people to drop out, it helps your cause. I'm certainly not pointing any fingers at anyone in this thread, but when it comes to the points game, I take the advice I see online with a big bite of salt.

If I'm wrong about participating then I spend $X dollars on the resource via the state dnr/dow, but I have a chance to draw a tag.

If I quit "playing the game" and cant afford to buy a hunt in Canada or Mexico, then I have 0% chance of hunting sheep.

I guess everyone has to make their own calculations.

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[BeaverHunter]

My point was, yes, someone starting now is effectively throwing away $150/year on WY preference points. There is no worse state to start applying. I still hold to that. I agree that Tahr are not as cool as Rockys, Dalls or Deserts. But WY is a pipe dream starting now or even 10 years ago. A guided Rocky hunt is $40k, Dall is $20k, and Desert is $50K. I hunted off peak season on public land on foot for Tahr for $1600 guided plus some frequent flier miles. It was a great hunt and I would have spent more money going DIY...got an old Tahr and two bonus Red deer stags. My point was that it is a comparable mountain hunt for worthy game. No one will argue that a 35 inch bighorn is inferior to a Tahr, but the odds are long starting now and I would rather hunt something than nothing. Many can afford a tahr...most cannot put 40K together to go hunt a Rocky in Alberta, and starting in WY is kind of silly. I have killed a Rocky, but the Tahr was a more difficult hunt in my experience but every hunt is different. How people rank the worthiness of game is very personal, but I wouldn't say bighorn to tahr is as big of a difference of elk versus a feral farm animal.

Agree on your jumping in now stance. There would be a zero percent chance I would be putting in for Wyoming sheep if I had 0 points at this point in the game.

 

[npm352]

The reality is the guy to your left and right is diluting your chances, so if you can get online and convince people to drop out, it helps your cause. I'm certainly not pointing any fingers at anyone in this thread, but when it comes to the points game, I take the advice I see online with a big bite of salt.

If I'm wrong about participating then I spend $X dollars on the resource via the state dnr/dow, but I have a chance to draw a tag.

If I quit "playing the game" and cant afford to buy a hunt in Canada or Mexico, then I have 0% chance of hunting sheep.

I guess everyone has to make their own calculations.

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I agree with this in the sense that you have to apply to get a tag. And I agree that everything on forums needs to be looked at with scrutiny...."I quit hunting that unit years ago...ain't a single deer left...wolves ate 'em all." = it is probably a good unit to hunt..... That being said, Wyoming is a terrible state to start. I got a couple points when they were $7....then they went to $100...then to $150. I quit when they went to $100...maybe I shouldn't have, but like you said, everyone has to make their own calculations. Catching up to the top will not happen in a lifetime. So I would say that to start now in WY is basically the same as lighting a bunch of money on fire. I think there are better states to invest in at ground zero, and that is my honest opinion. I am not competing for a WY tag. The point system is too established and to me the odds of randomly drawing one of just a couple units nonresidents can hunt without paying 10k for a guide makes it a worse "value" than some others out there in my opinion.

 

[BuzzH]

I heard the same things when I first started applying for Wyoming in 1999, 4 or 5 years from the "ground floor".

I've drawn both sheep and moose with points...and I "wasted" 4 moose points as I drew tag #1 in the unit I applied for with the points I had in 2015.

 

[Molon Labe]

The reality is the guy to your left and right is diluting your chances, so if you can get online and convince people to drop out, it helps your cause. I'm certainly not pointing any fingers at anyone in this thread, but when it comes to the points game, I take the advice I see online with a big bite of salt.

If I'm wrong about participating then I spend $X dollars on the resource via the state dnr/dow, but I have a chance to draw a tag.

If I quit "playing the game" and cant afford to buy a hunt in Canada or Mexico, then I have 0% chance of hunting sheep.

I guess everyone has to make their own calculations.

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Yes...everyone has to make their own calculations. But the beauty of numbers and math...they are black and white. You can add 2+2 and come up with 10...but that was a poor calculation. The true answer is 4.

If you want to keep applying the only thing you need to consider is: are you willing to pay $56,000 for a bighorn tag in WY? (See my previous post for breakdown/proofing)

If you think that is too much then allocate those funds elsewhere...other states or raffles. There are many other states that have lower perceived tag values...

If you think that $56,000 is a fair price for that WY tag then you still need to allocate funds elsewhere...take your moneys and gamble on the roulette wheel. Then go buy a sheep hunt or two when you “win” on those slim odds.

If someone thinks my premise is wrong or my math is wrong...please let me know. I try to make all my decisions rationally without emotional tainting. I am very willing to change my opinion if I am missing something.

I make 50-65 applications in over a dozen states a year. Plus several state raffles. My goal is too draw tags...I allocate funds to give me the highest probability of putting a tag in my pocket.
To sum up:
Applying for random chances you are better off gambling. Applying for PP and outlasting the 4200 people you are better off investing the money and buying a hunt even if WY keeps the cost at $200/yr ignoring inflation for the next 30yrs. The money spent on points is a sunk cost and should not have any bearing on future decisions.

 

[Molon Labe]

Here is the link for my perceived tag value theory:

Application Strategy perceived value theory

So I have noticed a lot of posts that ask about building points and what state to start applying. What state should I build points in? What is the best state for odds of drawing? I wanted to put down a thread that someone can look at and with some simple math be able to figure out what works...

www.rokslide.com

 

[BeaverHunter]

Yes...everyone has to make their own calculations. But the beauty of numbers and math...they are black and white. You can add 2+2 and come up with 10...but that was a poor calculation. The true answer is 4.

If you want to keep applying the only thing you need to consider is: are you willing to pay $56,000 for a bighorn tag in WY? (See my previous post for breakdown/proofing)

If you think that is too much then allocate those funds elsewhere...other states or raffles. There are many other states that have lower perceived tag values...

If you think that $56,000 is a fair price for that WY tag then you still need to allocate funds elsewhere...take your moneys and gamble on the roulette wheel. Then go buy a sheep hunt or two when you “win” on those slim odds.

If someone thinks my premise is wrong or my math is wrong...please let me know. I try to make all my decisions rationally without emotional tainting. I am very willing to change my opinion if I am missing something.

I make 50-65 applications in over a dozen states a year. Plus several state raffles. My goal is too draw tags...I allocate funds to give me the highest probability of putting a tag in my pocket.
To sum up:
Applying for random chances you are better off gambling. Applying for PP and outlasting the 4200 people you are better off investing the money and buying a hunt even if WY keeps the cost at $200/yr ignoring inflation for the next 30yrs. The money spent on points is a sunk cost and should not have any bearing on future decisions.

Do you know how many people will drop out over the next 10-20 years? That’s the wild card that your numbers aren’t accounting for at all. Especially if(or when) they raise point fees again. Lots of people jump out every time they raise the point fees. Lots of people also don’t buy points when the economy is shit and Wyoming purges you’re points after 2 years of not putting in it I’m not mistaken. Your numbers do give a person something to think about though.

 

[BuzzH]

The one thing all the "math" in the world cant do is guess what things are going to be like in 10-20-30 years.

No math solution is going to solve how many people bail out of the draw over time. No math problem is going to solve how many more (or less) tags will be available. No math solution is going to see how many people stick with the drawing. No math solution will tell you if point systems change in the future.

There are just lot of things that could potentially happen to shorten the wait times and things that favor drawing a tag sooner.

Conversely, there is also no guarantee that things will not get worse, they very well could. But those aren't solved via math either.

I think just using basic math as the ONLY factor in your decision, is not looking at it with both eyes open.

I still apply as I'm more of a glass half full guy eventually, through enough applications, I'll draw in spite of the odds. I already have. I also believe that there will be a huge decline in applicants when considering the average age of people drawing sheep tags, moose tags, etc. Its heavily skewed to 45-80 year old folks. The group that is fading from hunting the fastest through either drawing, getting too old, or simply dying off. I also think that with more research and understanding of sheep, moose, and goats, we may see things happen to actually increase herds and issue more tags in the future.

All things I don't know for sure, but I'm not going to be the guy that regrets not staying the course when things start working in my favor.

If they don't, well, there's worse things to spend money on than funding wildlife...

 

[BuzzH]

First and foremost I didn't like the idea of guide in wilderness in Wyo for nonres plus the fact that outfitters are now charging over $15,000 for a sheep hunt!

That's a bald faced lie...I received unsolicited correspondence from nearly every sheep outfitter in Wyoming this year including glossy pamphlets and price lists. The 2 most expensive guided hunts were $10,500 and ranged all the way down to $8500 without even calling and trying to bargain.

I have a pretty good idea where you pull your numbers from...

 

[Molon Labe]

The one thing all the "math" in the world cant do is guess what things are going to be like in 10-20-30 years.

No math solution is going to solve how many people bail out of the draw over time. No math problem is going to solve how many more (or less) tags will be available. No math solution is going to see how many people stick with the drawing. No math solution will tell you if point systems change in the future.

There are just lot of things that could potentially happen to shorten the wait times and things that favor drawing a tag sooner.

Conversely, there is also no guarantee that things will not get worse, they very well could. But those aren't solved via math either.

I think just using basic math as the ONLY factor in your decision, is not looking at it with both eyes open.

I still apply as I'm more of a glass half full guy eventually, through enough applications, I'll draw in spite of the odds. I already have. I also believe that there will be a huge decline in applicants when considering the average age of people drawing sheep tags, moose tags, etc. Its heavily skewed to 45-80 year old folks. The group that is fading from hunting the fastest through either drawing, getting too old, or simply dying off. I also think that with more research and understanding of sheep, moose, and goats, we may see things happen to actually increase herds and issue more tags in the future.

All things I don't know for sure, but I'm not going to be the guy that regrets not staying the course when things start working in my favor.

If they don't, well, there's worse things to spend money on than funding wildlife...

I could use more complicated math but it would take way too much time to prove the point.
I was trying to keep things very simple and neat as possible to get the point across.
And I am realizing that even if I knew the exact demographics of the point holders and I had the actuarial tables to support....my proof would fall on deaf ears.

I gave my argument that the OP is in fact "throwing away $150 applying for sheep" like his post was asking. But I think this is one of those..."what do you think of xyz product?"...the person asking the question is just looking for validation or confirmation that they made the correct decision and wouldn't listen to any counter points anyway.

You are saying that I am not considering all variables and then you base your whole argument on those same variables?

I based my hypothesis off of current known data. If that changes my opinion will change. If the odds to draw sheep in WY jump to 1-2% I will be first in line applying.