AK Sheep, Population Observations

I'm going to float this to the top with a recent ADF&G report re: Unit 19C. For those not familiar, 19C is a remote unit in the W. AK Range accessible only by air. I've hunted it a few times, and it has historically be an excellent area and represented a substantial portion of the Alaska harvest each year.

The survey and harvest numbers referenced are both prior to the 2023 season.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/...2024/sheep_1-22-24/2023-adfg-sheep-survey.pdf

Relevant notes:

1706203368569.png


1706203452121.png

2022 harvest data was <1/2 of the previous low and 1/4 of the previous highs. After non-residents were forcibly cut this season, the 2023 harvest was down even more.
 
I spent a lot of time in 19C from 2010 through 2016. I was absent for a handful of years and returned in 2021 and was shocked at the lack of sheep. Based on the week we spent stomping around in the area, I estimated the population was about 35-40% of what what I had come to understand as normal for the area. Seems like the data supports that poor mans survey pretty much exactly. Very sad to see.
 
Yellowknife said:
I'm going to float this to the top with a recent ADF&G report re: Unit 19C. For those not familiar, 19C is a remote unit in the W. AK Range accessible only by air. I've hunted it a few times, and it has historically be an excellent area and represented a substantial portion of the Alaska harvest each year.

The survey and harvest numbers referenced are both prior to the 2023 season.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/...2024/sheep_1-22-24/2023-adfg-sheep-survey.pdf

Relevant notes:

View attachment 662682


View attachment 662684

2022 harvest data was <1/2 of the previous low and 1/4 of the previous highs. After non-residents were forcibly cut this season, the 2023 harvest was down even more.
Click to expand...
I totally understand and have seen with my own eyes that the sheep population took a huge drop statewide from 2 consecutive bad winter/springs. Using harvest data seems strange to use as a aid for population numbers. Cutting hunter numbers(non res) obviously would cut down the harvest numbers as does hunter participation has dropped with lower sheep numbers. Statewide harvest numbers have steeply declined with hunter success percentages not dropping substantially in many areas. Less hunters makes for lower harvest, With are current management strategy the sheep where doing very well even with a bad winter in 2013 until the 2 consecutive bad winters. Nothing will replace those sheep/rams but time.
 
Non-Resident hunters were active in 19C through 2022, time covered in the chart. Success rates also dropped measurable during those last three years for both NR and Res. It’s a fairly valid proxy for herd health in my mind.
 
Yellowknife said:
Non-Resident hunters were active in 19C through 2022, time covered in the chart. Success rates also dropped measurable during those last three years for both NR and Res. It’s a fairly valid proxy for herd health in my mind.
Click to expand...
I understand that they were on the chart, I also understand the population decreased a lot. I am not just referencing 19C. Just pointing out harvest data without hunter participation numbers can be misleading.
 
MBN said:
I understand that they were on the chart, I also understand the population decreased a lot. I am not just referencing 19C. Just pointing out harvest data without hunter participation numbers can be misleading.
Click to expand...

You've touched on one of the great conundrums in sheep management here in AK. There is no perfect, or even close to ideal metric for gauging the state of any given sheep population or population as a whole. No one data set, or even group of data really paints the complete picture. 19C has been one of the most consistently surveyed sheep populations in the state and that is one of the main reasons it is getting so much attention these days. It is the easiest to "analyze" as compared to other units that may have never been surveyed.

Surveys take place infrequently at best and when they do happen, are often effected by weather and conditions to the point where the data collected by them is helpful, but far from an accurate inventory.

Harvest data is very valuable, but total number of sheep killed needs to be correlated to hunter participation and effort.

Success rates are usually affected by a number of other factors other than presence of legal rams, again weather being a very significant one.

Boot leather/poor mans surveys from experience hunters, guides, etc. can and should carry a lot of weight, but those observations don't make it into any sort of official record or analysis.

Those that are trying to track what is actually going on with sheep in AK need to ingest all of these data and factors and weigh them against time and experience to get the most accurate picture available, and that is no easy task.

Those that have been trying generally come to the same conclusion. AK sheep are in bad shape and it will probably get worse before (if?) it gets better.
 
ColeyG said:
You've touched on one of the great conundrums in sheep management here in AK. There is no perfect, or even close to ideal metric for gauging the state of any given sheep population or population as a whole. No one data set, or even group of data really paints the complete picture. 19C has been one of the most consistently surveyed sheep populations in the state and that is one of the main reasons it is getting so much attention these days. It is the easiest to "analyze" as compared to other units that may have never been surveyed.

Surveys take place infrequently at best and when they do happen, are often effected by weather and conditions to the point where the data collected by them is helpful, but far from an accurate inventory.

Harvest data is very valuable, but total number of sheep killed needs to be correlated to hunter participation and effort.

Success rates are usually affected by a number of other factors other than presence of legal rams, again weather being a very significant one.

Boot leather/poor mans surveys from experience hunters, guides, etc. can and should carry a lot of weight, but those observations don't make it into any sort of official record or analysis.

Those that are trying to track what is actually going on with sheep in AK need to ingest all of these data and factors and weigh them against time and experience to get the most accurate picture available, and that is no easy task.

Those that have been trying generally come to the same conclusion. AK sheep are in bad shape and it will probably get worse before (if?) it gets better.
Click to expand...
I understand and agree with most of this. Maybe I am an optimist but the sheep have rebounded after weather events before and think that with time they will again.
 
Is it possible to view historically low populations and see how quickly (or slowly) they bounce back?

I know weather isn’t the only influence on populations, but has to be a large factor. I’m sure there have been previous back to back (or more) bad winters. Curious how long it takes to bounce back with improved weather.
 
ColeyG said:
View attachment 624422
From the 2022 ADFG/BOG presentation
Click to expand...
I find it to be an awfully strange coincidence that sheep harvest is trucking along just fine and then precipitously drops off in 2020 which is, of course, the year Covid hit and travel became restricted plus peoples wallets took a hit so plans to hunt sheep that fall changed in a dramatic way. But then, harvest doesn’t come back even though everyone becomes a hunter and sheep hunts become the most important thing to do in the World. What’s up with that other than aliens landed and stole the sheep when people took a year off from sheep hunting.
 
Yellowknife said:
I'm going to float this to the top with a recent ADF&G report re: Unit 19C. For those not familiar, 19C is a remote unit in the W. AK Range accessible only by air. I've hunted it a few times, and it has historically be an excellent area and represented a substantial portion of the Alaska harvest each year.

The survey and harvest numbers referenced are both prior to the 2023 season.

https://www.adfg.alaska.gov/static/...2024/sheep_1-22-24/2023-adfg-sheep-survey.pdf

Relevant notes:

View attachment 662682


View attachment 662684

2022 harvest data was <1/2 of the previous low and 1/4 of the previous highs. After non-residents were forcibly cut this season, the 2023 harvest was down even more.
Click to expand...
Same thing for 19C. Everything is fine in 2019 and then harvest drops in 2020 but doesn’t come back. The drop in 2020 is explainable. 2021 and 2022 is not. Did the sheep get Covid?
 
I think there is to much assumption that this going to be short term trend based on recent winter conditions vs the recent winter conditions becoming more and more the new baseline.
 
Last edited:
TWHrunner said:
I find it to be an awfully strange coincidence that sheep harvest is trucking along just fine and then precipitously drops off in 2020 which is, of course, the year Covid hit and travel became restricted plus peoples wallets took a hit so plans to hunt sheep that fall changed in a dramatic way. But then, harvest doesn’t come back even though everyone becomes a hunter and sheep hunts become the most important thing to do in the World. What’s up with that other than aliens landed and stole the sheep when people took a year off from sheep hunting.
Click to expand...
A hard winter in 11/12 or 12/13 if I recall correctly. Killed a lot of the lambs. Flash forward to 2020 and on when all those lambs would have been legal rams and they’re just not there. Not everything in life is some grand conspiracy.
 
Sure, it’s not all a conspiracy theory, especially if you have those data from back in 2013 that there was a major reduction in lamb count. But if you’re saying it now “retrospectively” that's called hand waiving, and worse than a “conspiracy theory” from the perspective of science. So, if you have those data, please show them. I’ll be the first to agree if they exist.
 
TWHrunner said:
Sure, it’s not all a conspiracy theory, especially if you have those data from back in 2013 that there was a major reduction in lamb count. But if you’re saying it now “retrospectively” that's called hand waiving, and worse than a “conspiracy theory” from the perspective of science. So, if you have those data, please show them. I’ll be the first to agree if they exist.
Click to expand...
 
2012/2013 - Hard winter/spring lambs took the worst of it
2014 - 2013 lambs would be 1.5 yr old in Fall
2015 - 2.5
2016 - 3.5
2017 - 4.5
2018 - 5.5
2019 - 6.5
2020 - 7.5 Bad winter/Spring. Entering legal rams/entering vulnerable ages of natural mortality even on good yr
2021 - 8.5 Horrible winter/Spring. Now legal rams/Into vulnerable ages of natural mort even on good years
Past 2 winters hard all sheep especially young and old huge loses in last 2 winter/springs
2022 - 9.5 Low numbers of young sheep and legal rams, Low ewe numbers = low lamb numbers
2023 -10.5 2nd decent winter/spring hoping for another.

If we have some decent winters I think that it will actually get better for a few years and then get worse for a few years for legal rams. For the sheep born in 2015-2019 that had the best chance to survive the 2 bad consecutive winters will make it into there expected years but we will see a drop again for the lambs that didn't make it the spring of 2020 and 2021.

Time and decent weather years....
 
Jasper said:
The Alaska Department of Fish and Game presented this information to the Alaska Board of Game in October 2022. The pdf answers several of the questions asked above, including resident and nonresident hunter numbers, and historic sheep population trends in a few selected areas across Alaska.

Click to expand...
Nice to see them looking at population trends as a whole and not just a snapshot of the last 20 like so many have.

Not saying we shouldn’t be concerned by any means but it’s always good to get as much info as possible and not just most recent.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MBN
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

P
Planning a once in a lifetime sheep hunt
2 3 4
Replies
79
Views
5K
MTGrizz
M
N
Hunting the "Cheap" Sheep
2
Replies
29
Views
2K
z987k
z987k
wildwilderness
Would you sell Bitcoin for a Sheep hunt?
3 4 5
Replies
82
Views
6K
Pafarm
P
Mdfowlman2
Mountain goat now, or sheep later.. maybe never
2 3
Replies
47
Views
2K
TMA805
TMA805
K
Well, 223 Works on NM Barbary, Too!
2
Replies
36
Views
2K
Kenny Hart
K

Latest posts

Featured Video

Stats

Threads
363,793
Messages
3,851,040
Members
82,560
Latest member
Hypernatremia

Latest Articles

Back
Top