2023 AZ Elk Draw

[saltfork]

Struck out again. 17 points and counting...

 

[idazona]

8 points and my card got hit yesterday afternoon. Resident pool for 5A early rifle or early archery. I'm a little worried about the moon on the early archery 5A hunt, looks like full moon is right in the middle of it.

 

[mxgsfmdpx]

8 points and my card got hit yesterday afternoon. Resident pool for 5A early rifle or early archery. I'm a little worried about the moon on the early archery 5A hunt, looks like full moon is right in the middle of it.

Don't overthink the moon. It's out of your control, and all you can do is hunt as smart and as hard as you can. Good unit for success!

 

[AZ_Hunter_2000]

Congrats to you fortunate folks.

 

[eshunt]

My brother got a CC hit yesterday. Looking like I'll be down in AZ in Dec. helping him out. Same unit my dad had last year. Looking forward to it even though I didn't pull a tag.

And he had the same point total that was shown as 100% draw odds last year. So not all units/hunts have a ton of point creep. I think this year many more people signed up for the hunters ed bonus point so maybe that is why there was a little more creep than other years. And with the dates for early archery, I'm sure it played a factor in people that were sitting on the sidelines that jumped in with plenty of points to draw the early archery.

 

[wapitibob]

His tag number will show if he drew in the Bonus point pass or the 1-2 pass.

 

[Bladeoutfitters]

Putting this out here so hopefully the 500+ post that is up now from 2021 will go away.

Assuming the CC deadline will be next week Wednesday or Thursday and hits shortly after.

Looking for elk tag #4 and antelope tag #1…can’t imagine a better elk hunt anywhere.



View attachment 524002

Great bull!

 

[Bladeoutfitters]

Card hit. Early archery. 23 north or 10

Wow that is awesome!

 

[Beendare]

Cougar,

It happens a lot that guys don’t even put in for a unit they cannot draw…they just wait, then apply.

Its not that Go Hunt stats are wrong…but it doesn’t account for the high pointholders applying when they think they can draw.

Considering AZ only gives out 5% of those tags in the bonus round, it doesn’t take many high tag holders to mess you up.

I said this years ago when Az changed from 10% to 5%- easy to predict; its going to ramp up point creep to very high levels…and it will continue to ramp up for years
——

Im curious, Anyone with 24 or 25 points NOT draw U9?

Nada for me in the draws….but it was a longshot.

 

[bohntr]

8 points and my card got hit yesterday afternoon. Resident pool for 5A early rifle or early archery. I'm a little worried about the moon on the early archery 5A hunt, looks like full moon is right in the middle of it.

I arrowed my bull in 2021 on a full moon and warm weather. Rutting hard. My experience it doesn’t affect them nearly as much as many think.

 

[Sccritterkiller]

Nothing for me about what I expected.
Congrats to all that drew! No go pull your name out of the WY draw.

 

[CRJR45]

I don't want to talk about it ,...don't look at me !

 

[7Bartman]

My card got hit, just not sure if it's my son or I. I'm hoping it's him.

 

[TheCougar]

Cougar,

It happens a lot that guys don’t even put in for a unit they cannot draw…they just wait, then apply.

Its not that Go Hunt stats are wrong…but it doesn’t account for the high pointholders applying when they think they can draw.

Considering AZ only gives out 5% of those tags in the bonus round, it doesn’t take many high tag holders to mess you up.

I said this years ago when Az changed from 10% to 5%- easy to predict; its going to ramp up point creep to very high levels…and it will continue to ramp up for years
——

Im curious, Anyone with 24 or 25 points NOT draw U9?

Nada for me in the draws….but it was a longshot.

I was aware of this. Not getting into too much detail, but I had a fair amount of wiggle room before the odds were anything less than 100%. Basically, it had to have jumped by 2 points, which it has never done before, for me not to draw. Also, I’m in the resident pool, so the NR change only helped me.

 

[Norm555]

Does anyone remember how long it takes for the portal to be updated?

 

[dsotm]

Nada for me again

 

[timekiller13]

When you say 100% draw odds do you mean that last year people drew with the same points you have this year? Point creep is real. I always assume it will take one more than it did last year. Sometimes more. Last year my second choice unit went up 2 full points.

I say 100% I mean 100% of people at that point level drew, not above that level, everyone at that point level drew. I understand point creep, very well. It’s just shows that points are “pointless.” You can’t plan anything. 100% draw odds from prior year should have a very good chance of drawing at that point level the next year.

But I didn’t draw. But someone with zero points did. Oh well. I’m used to it.

 

[Steve O]

Does anyone remember how long it takes for the portal to be updated?

It usually takes a week or two. There is no set deadline for that and AZGFD definitely takes their time on that.

 

[Turkeygetpwnd38]

I was aware of this. Not getting into too much detail, but I had a fair amount of wiggle room before the odds were anything less than 100%. Basically, it had to have jumped by 2 points, which it has never done before, for me not to draw. Also, I’m in the resident pool, so the NR change only helped me.

I think a lot of people were sitting out the past 4/5 years waiting for a good moisture year. They also changed the hunters ed point so anyone could easily get them, so that was a jump. Never know until they are posted though!

 

[HUNT JR]

I think the big kicker this year is the winter moisture. Guys that have been buying points were more ready to jump in the draw.