2023 AZ Elk Draw

idazona

FNG
Joined
Sep 25, 2022
Messages
8
8 points and my card got hit yesterday afternoon. Resident pool for 5A early rifle or early archery. I'm a little worried about the moon on the early archery 5A hunt, looks like full moon is right in the middle of it.
 

mxgsfmdpx

WKR
Joined
Oct 22, 2019
Messages
5,975
Location
Outside
8 points and my card got hit yesterday afternoon. Resident pool for 5A early rifle or early archery. I'm a little worried about the moon on the early archery 5A hunt, looks like full moon is right in the middle of it.
Don't overthink the moon. It's out of your control, and all you can do is hunt as smart and as hard as you can. Good unit for success!
 

eshunt

Lil-Rokslider
Joined
May 23, 2012
Messages
108
Location
NV
My brother got a CC hit yesterday. Looking like I'll be down in AZ in Dec. helping him out. Same unit my dad had last year. Looking forward to it even though I didn't pull a tag.

And he had the same point total that was shown as 100% draw odds last year. So not all units/hunts have a ton of point creep. I think this year many more people signed up for the hunters ed bonus point so maybe that is why there was a little more creep than other years. And with the dates for early archery, I'm sure it played a factor in people that were sitting on the sidelines that jumped in with plenty of points to draw the early archery.
 

Beendare

WKR
Joined
May 6, 2014
Messages
9,027
Location
Corripe cervisiam
Cougar,

It happens a lot that guys don’t even put in for a unit they cannot draw…they just wait, then apply.

Its not that Go Hunt stats are wrong…but it doesn’t account for the high pointholders applying when they think they can draw.

Considering AZ only gives out 5% of those tags in the bonus round, it doesn’t take many high tag holders to mess you up.

I said this years ago when Az changed from 10% to 5%- easy to predict; its going to ramp up point creep to very high levels…and it will continue to ramp up for years
——

Im curious, Anyone with 24 or 25 points NOT draw U9?

Nada for me in the draws….but it was a longshot.
 

bohntr

WKR
Joined
Feb 24, 2012
Messages
739
Location
White Mountains of Arizona
8 points and my card got hit yesterday afternoon. Resident pool for 5A early rifle or early archery. I'm a little worried about the moon on the early archery 5A hunt, looks like full moon is right in the middle of it.
I arrowed my bull in 2021 on a full moon and warm weather. Rutting hard. My experience it doesn’t affect them nearly as much as many think.
 

TheCougar

WKR
Joined
Jun 6, 2016
Messages
3,279
Location
Virginia
Cougar,

It happens a lot that guys don’t even put in for a unit they cannot draw…they just wait, then apply.

Its not that Go Hunt stats are wrong…but it doesn’t account for the high pointholders applying when they think they can draw.

Considering AZ only gives out 5% of those tags in the bonus round, it doesn’t take many high tag holders to mess you up.

I said this years ago when Az changed from 10% to 5%- easy to predict; its going to ramp up point creep to very high levels…and it will continue to ramp up for years
——

Im curious, Anyone with 24 or 25 points NOT draw U9?

Nada for me in the draws….but it was a longshot.
I was aware of this. Not getting into too much detail, but I had a fair amount of wiggle room before the odds were anything less than 100%. Basically, it had to have jumped by 2 points, which it has never done before, for me not to draw. Also, I’m in the resident pool, so the NR change only helped me.
 
Joined
Dec 28, 2015
Messages
903
When you say 100% draw odds do you mean that last year people drew with the same points you have this year? Point creep is real. I always assume it will take one more than it did last year. Sometimes more. Last year my second choice unit went up 2 full points.
I say 100% I mean 100% of people at that point level drew, not above that level, everyone at that point level drew. I understand point creep, very well. It’s just shows that points are “pointless.” You can’t plan anything. 100% draw odds from prior year should have a very good chance of drawing at that point level the next year.

But I didn’t draw. But someone with zero points did. Oh well. I’m used to it.
 
OP
Steve O

Steve O

WKR
Classified Approved
Joined
Feb 29, 2012
Messages
3,083
Location
Michigan
Does anyone remember how long it takes for the portal to be updated?
It usually takes a week or two. There is no set deadline for that and AZGFD definitely takes their time on that.
 
Joined
Aug 11, 2017
Messages
2,688
Location
Florida
I was aware of this. Not getting into too much detail, but I had a fair amount of wiggle room before the odds were anything less than 100%. Basically, it had to have jumped by 2 points, which it has never done before, for me not to draw. Also, I’m in the resident pool, so the NR change only helped me.
I think a lot of people were sitting out the past 4/5 years waiting for a good moisture year. They also changed the hunters ed point so anyone could easily get them, so that was a jump. Never know until they are posted though!
 
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