2022 Alaska Draw results

[z987k]

Just a tip to folks that don't have any luck. I recommend putting in all 6 chances on 1 hunt to raise your odds. We draw 2 tags a year between 5 of us doing this.

There's 7 of us that do that. We drew 2 tags 2 years ago but nothing since.
Aside from Muskox and Bison, the only thing a draw tag does is determines how far I have to go to hunt. So.. it's not that important.

 

[AkRyan]

Another tip don't apply for tags if you don't know how to get where the tags is for!

 

[z987k]

Another tip don't apply for tags if you don't know how to get where the tags is for!

I do hate all the, I drew X tag, can someone help me with getting there/where to go/how to hunt it.

If you don't know all those things before hand, do not apply for that tag.

 

[Clarktar]

My crew drew 3 dm167 Cordova tags out of the 8 offered...I almost feel guilty. Wife and her friend drew the archery any moose up north but can't remember the tag number.

Just a tip to folks that don't have any luck. I recommend putting in all 6 chances on 1 hunt to raise your odds. We draw 2 tags a year between 5 of us doing this.

My wife and I do this. Didn't help us with the CDV moose draw. Hit me up if you need a packer!

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

 

[Confluentus]

Putting all 6 choices in for one tag won’t increase your odds of drawing a tag, it just increases your odds of drawing *that* tag.

The best thing to do if you really want to draw a good tag is to do a thorough analysis of # of tags available this year vs recent year # of applicants for that tag, but also go look at the harvest stats beforehand because a lot of people put in for (and then draw) high odds tags and never hunt them due to access. Most high draw odds tags are that way for a reason (ie difficult access and low participation by those who do draw).

 

[AkRyan]

Putting all 6 choices in for one tag won’t increase your odds of drawing a tag, it just increases your odds of drawing *that* tag.

The best thing to do if you really want to draw a good tag is to do a thorough analysis of # of tags available this year vs recent year # of applicants for that tag, but also go look at the harvest stats beforehand because a lot of people put in for (and then draw) high odds tags and never hunt them due to access. Most high draw odds tags are that way for a reason (ie difficult access and low participation by those who do draw).

Putting in all 6 to one tag does increase your odds. I've had extremely good luck doing this along with the rest of my family. We get tags with the highest demand every year using our "tactic" and our freezers seem to stay full.
Who is the math professor that want to break this down?

 

[z987k]

...............

 

[AkRyan]

You'd have to specify the exact draw if you want real odds, but of course using all 6 on a single draw will increase your odds of drawing that specific one.

The Odds would be (6/x) as opposed to if you put in for say 6 different moose hunts the odds are (1/x)+(1/y)+(1/z)+(1/a)+(1/b)+(1/c)
Depending on what the denominator in each of those are it could be higher or lower odds.

So considering most draws are slightly above or below 1% it's a wash? I guess I would rather a 6% chance on 1 hunt than a 1% chance on 6 hunts.

 

[Confluentus]

So considering most draws are slightly above or below 1% it's a wash? I guess I would rather a 6% chance on 1 hunt than a 1% chance on 6 hunts.

As z987k says, you obviously have a higher draw odds for that one tag you put 6 chances in for than if you put fewer chances in for that tag.

That said, if you were looking at 6 tags, each with exactly an x% draw chance, you would have the same odds of drawing *a tag* by putting one chance in for each of those 6 tags, or all 6 chances in for one of the tags…. or whichever combination of those 6 choices and 6 tags you choose. The odds are the same. Assuming all of the tags have equal probability of draw to one another.


The formula for overall draw odds is also not just additive. For example, if you have a tag with a 25% draw odds (let’s say 25 tags and 100 applications) you can’t just add 25/100 6 times (25/100*6) to get your draw odds. You can’t have a 150% draw odds. The correct calculation is as follows (this is not exact because reasons, but this is a close approximation):

x = # of tags available
y = # of individual draw applications for that tag
n = # of times you put in for that tag (between 1 and 6)


(tag draw odds) = 1 - ((1-(x/y))^n)

or

(tag draw odds) = 1 - ((1-(n/y))^x)

I’m not actually sure which of these two equations is correct, but they will come to approximately the same answer.

edit: I should add that this is both an approximation of your odds (the odds are slightly higher in reality because with each subsequent draw, one application is removed from the pool), but also this can only be estimated using *last years’* numbers. There is no way to know how many applications (or sometimes, how many tags) will go for any specific tag in the current year, so this is the best proxy you will get.

 

[william schmaltz]

We are in the group of put all 6 on a single tag. Only thing I've ever got in a decade was a GUM 13 caribou 7 years ago it was a 60% draw. Usually put in for about 8 specifies that way, this year did 6 I think. So individual results will vary I guess.

I do only put in for top tier or backyard tags that are typically below 2% odds, so results are expected. IMO, there are better hunts going the general season route than what half the draw hunts offer. The reason we see so much "I drew this tag but didn't realize I had to fly in to hunt and don't have the money, someone help" is because a good amount of folks just look at odds and blindly apply for the best chance. I'd rather create my own luck in general units than draw some marginal area just for the sake of drawing.

 

[z987k]

As z987k says, you obviously have a higher draw odds for that one tag you put 6 chances in for than if you put fewer chances in for that tag.

That said, if you were looking at 6 tags, each with exactly an x% draw chance, you would have the same odds of drawing *a tag* by putting one chance in for each of those 6 tags, or all 6 chances in for one of the tags…. or whichever combination of those 6 choices and 6 tags you choose. The odds are the same. Assuming all of the tags have equal probability of draw to one another.


The formula for overall draw odds is also not just additive. For example, if you have a tag with a 25% draw odds (let’s say 25 tags and 100 applications) you can’t just add 25/100 6 times (25/100*6) to get your draw odds. You can’t have a 150% draw odds. The correct calculation is as follows (this is not exact because reasons, but this is a close approximation):

x = # of tags available
y = # of individual draw applications for that tag
n = number of times you put in for that tag (between 1 and 6)


(tag draw odds) = 1 - ((1-(x/y))^n)

This is correct. Going to edit my post as to not confuse people.

 

[SaltySailor]

DG478 and DC827, been getting skunked for 6 years since my last draw tag and finally got lucky this year!

 

[Bighorn80]

I hate to state the obvious, but the state allowing us to put in for 6 tags/specie was not to increase our odds of drawing a tag... it was for them to make more money (which I don't have a problem with).
The odds of drawing a tag doesnt double by putting in for 6 unless everyone else is still playing by the old rules and only applying for 3, which almost no one still does. Just saying ...

 

[SaltySailor]

I hate to state the obvious, but the state allowing us to put in for 6 tags/specie was not to increase our odds of drawing a tag... it was for them to make more money (which I don't have a problem with).
The odds of drawing a tag doesnt double by putting in for 6 unless everyone else is still playing by the old rules and only applying for 3, which almost no one still does. Just saying ...

Oh we know! Family of 6, 4 can put in for the draw - it gets expensive quick maxing out moose tags alone.

 

[Mykolaivka887]

Anybody have hunt notes for DS 132? This is the area to include parts of Eagle River, Peters Creek and Eklutna valleys. Thank you in advance for your advice! I've watched YT for videos on access, I see at least a couple of trailheads to access Eklutna, Peters Creek and Eagle River. Wondering where people are finding the animals concentrated and whether or not they have points of access to these areas.

Cheers,

Bob

Bob:

PM sent to your Inbox ....

Mik

 

[chucko]

Bob, I don't think anyone is going to give you any freebies on this one. Giving up where to go or how to go sheep hunting info that stays on the internet for the next 100 years or more is something that most people don't want to do.

If I had drawn that tag, I would contact a couple of air taxis in Palmer or Wasilla and pay to burn some avgas on aerial recon throughout the summer to get a better idea of where to go and terrain accessibility. Follow that up with burning some boot leather to figure out some primary, and alternate ingress routes and then plan to be out a few days before the season opened.

Good Luck

Buy Rampages from Lew Bradley read everything cover to cover .

 

[badgerboy14]

Anybody have hunt notes for DS 132? This is the area to include parts of Eagle River, Peters Creek and Eklutna valleys. Thank you in advance for your advice! I've watched YT for videos on access, I see at least a couple of trailheads to access Eklutna, Peters Creek and Eagle River. Wondering where people are finding the animals concentrated and whether or not they have points of access to these areas.

Cheers,

Bob

While you might access the hunt area from Eagle River or Eklutna, the actual hunt boundaries do not include Eagle River or Eklutna Drainages.