Wyoming point creep

[WKR]

What is the general consensus on how many points it'll take to draw a general tag this year?

I put in with my 4 points in the regular draw and I'm not feeling very confident but im tired of waiting and just want to go hunt wyoming elk.

We'll see what happens, all this talk of point creep and the 90-10 allocation is pretty crappy.

 

[Cahunter805]

I don’t think 4 in the regular will be 100% odds this year especially with all the social media videos/posts about “burn points now”.

 

[Maverick1]

 

[wapitibob]

Regular was 100% at 3.7500, 3.6667 was only 31%. There were over 1100 apps at 3.000 last year who are now at 4.000. I would have done special.

 

[WKR]

Well looks like I should start making other plans

 

[Indian Summer]

Well looks like I should start making other plans

Yes you should. It was pretty easy to figure out that if you really wanted to hunt special was your only option.

 

[bdan68]

Well looks like I should start making other plans

You could still draw. Maybe more people went in the special draw this year, and point creep won't be as much as expected in the regular draw. Or you could draw in the random. Hard to say. But I think with 4 you do have a decent chance.

 

[Jethro]

He's got a chance, but not a "decent" chance.

 

[WKR]

You could still draw. Maybe more people went in the special draw this year, and point creep won't be as much as expected in the regular draw. Or you could draw in the random. Hard to say. But I think with 4 you do have a decent chance.

I like your optimism, but im not feeling very confident. The good news is I still have points in other states where I could draw a tag. I wanted to hunt wyoming again as I haven't hunted there in 16 years but I dont know if ill ever catch up to the point creep with the way things are going. I can afford the special draw but couldn't justify spending that much for an elk tag when it's not my only option. Now I'm rethinking that decision and might have made the wrong choice

Hopefully I get lucky and draw a general tag

 

[Whip]

Normally I'd guess you would have a decent chance of drawing this year with 4. Probably not guaranteed, but still good.
The wild card this year is all the speculation about what WY is going to do going forward and all the talk all over the internet, podcast experts etc, telling everyone to dump their WY points. No way to tell how many people took that advice and how many points they were willing to dump into the general tags. Even special might see a big increase because of the potential for a huge price increase on those going forward.
This year is going to catch a lot of people by surprise I think. At least you're going into it with your eyes wide open to what might happen.

 

[bdan68]

He's got a chance, but not a "decent" chance.

More chance than an application with 3 or 3.5 points. And everyone has a chance in the random.

 

[Indian Summer]

More chance than an application with 3 or 3.5 points. And everyone has a chance in the random.

Actually he doesn’t have more of a chance than those guys. They are all depending on getting lucky in the random.

 

[Laramie]

Actually he doesn’t have more of a chance than those guys. They are all depending on getting lucky in the random.

I agree with you and Bob above. Another factor is guys like me who typically wait to apply until I have what I consider enough points to draw. Those applicant won't be reflected in the applicant point pools from last year. I wouldn't be too surprised if it took 5 to be 100% this year.

 

[Raghornkiller]

I applied for special with 5.My brothers drew with 4 last year in the regular but I'm not taking any chances

 

[pirogue]

I bet it takes 4+ in the Special for a Gen this year.