Wyoming Passes 90/10: The Worst Article You’ll Read This Year

[Bobbyboe]

There are no minimum number of bonus points "needed" to draw. You can have one bonus point and be successful while your buddy has 144 bonus points and is unsuccessful.

Yes, I fully understand that.

 

[Bobbyboe]

I would agree, it will not eliminate point creep.
Unfortunately it comes down to money probably. If they stay preference points everyone not in the top point level will most likely drop out due to the lack of random tags. If they go bonus points there's still that chance to draw at any level, so people will be more apt to hang in there and keep buying points. It just depends where your at with points currently, whether it's good or bad. With 19 points currently I am not sure which it is for me (probably bad )! Sure hope I draw this year! (probably dreaming )
Just to be clear I understand both sides of this debate (R and NR) and I don't think there is a good answer for everyone. It does put guys with a lot invested in a tough spot (19 points), but all you can do is make a decision that best works for you and make sure your voice is heard on these issues now and in the future and hope for the best. Unfortunately I think it's only going to get worse everywhere.
Have fun while you can, there's still a lot of good opportunities out there for now!

Your explanation is the only one that truly makes sense. Change to bonus to try and keep people applying.

Very tough sell if a 1 in 20,000 chance costs you $150. But hey, next year you’ll have more bonus points…. Wait, so will everyone else.

Edit, I’m off on my math. It would be closer to 1 in 200,000 chance.

 

[gonhunting247]

Your explanation is the only one that truly makes sense. Change to bonus to try and keep people applying.

Very tough sell if a 1 in 20,000 chance costs you $150. But hey, next year you’ll have more bonus points…. Wait, so will everyone else.

Edit, I’m off on my math. It would be closer to 1 in 200,000 chance.

I probably should have left the word "unfortunately" out of the second line, since it just depends on where a guy is at, point wise, whether it's good or bad! It probably would be more accurate to say "It probably just comes down to money for the most part". Just too few tags to sell a straight preference point system most likely.
I buy points in UT for desert sheep and even though it is called a preference point system, unless there is more than one tag it goes to a completely random, so in all actuality it is worse because my points don't increase my odds at all in the majority of cases and most years. Mostly it's just totally random.
Like I said earlier I can see both sides, sometimes I just wish I was on the other one at times.

 

[robtattoo]

I'm sorry to appear ignorant, Wyoming is the only state I've ever bought points for.

Could someone explain the fundamental difference between preference & bonus points please & what's the squaring deal everyone is mentioning?

I'm not being sarcastic or inflammatory, I really don't know.

Thanks.

 

[JM77]

So you’re telling me Nevada doesn’t see creep in their draw system? Sure, everyone has a chance, but the average number of bonus points needed to draw goes up every year. How does a bonus point system solve creep?

To be clear, I’m not attacking you, just trying to figure out the thought process. I just don’t get the point of changing from preference points to a bonus squared system. Both have the exact same problems.

You have a clear misunderstanding of how points work and you aren't the only one. It's impossible for a bonus point holder to need more bonus points to draw a tag from one year to the next. It might help, but it is not required.

Under bonus points, one point is all that is required to draw. A first time applicant gets one random number, while a 10 times applicant gets 100 numbers(or 10 if not a squared system). Only your low number counts. From one year to the next it never changes, it's a totally random system not affected by how many bonus points you have. It is not possible to have point creep. "Point creep" is a catch-all phrase, that is meaningless in a true bonus point system, and commonly used by anyone who hates a preference point system. It pertains to how many pp are required to draw an area and how they can increase from one year to the next. That does not happen with bonus points.

I have no illusions, based on what you have already said that you will now understand this, but try. This is me trying to show "a little humility/support" that @tdhanses thinks Wyoming residents lack.

 

[RMM]

I'm sorry to appear ignorant, Wyoming is the only state I've ever bought points for.

Could someone explain the fundamental difference between preference & bonus points please & what's the squaring deal everyone is mentioning?

I'm not being sarcastic or inflammatory, I really don't know.

Thanks.

To put it in simple terms, preference points are more of a sure thing. Ex. The only people that will draw a tag are those with the most points, A bonus point draw is completely random. If you have one bonus point you can get drawn, if you have 100 bonus points, you can get drawn. As for squaring points, if you have been buying bonus points for 10 years, 10 squared is 100, so you get your name in the random draw 100 times vs someone who only has 2 bonus points getting their name in 4 times.

 

[gonhunting247]

Preference the guys with the most points win or at least are vying for tags against others with the same amount of points.
Bonus just gives you another name in the hat for each point "so to speak". Actually most systems like NV you get more chances to draw a low number with the lowest number going to the draw. Low man wins. Also with this system is point squaring which in theory gives you many more chances to draw that low number.

There are a ton of variations of these systems based on percentages going to points/random and depending on the amount of tags available each year.

Then there is just plain old random.
They all are tough, unless it's your time

 

[robtattoo]

To put it in simple terms, preference points are more of a sure thing. Ex. The only people that will draw a tag are those with the most points, A bonus point draw is completely random. If you have one bonus point you can get drawn, if you have 100 bonus points, you can get drawn. As for squaring points, if you have been buying bonus points for 10 years, 10 squared is 100, so you get your name in the random draw 100 times vs someone who only has 2 bonus points getting their name in 4 times.

Preference the guys with the most points win or at least are vying for tags against others with the same amount of points.
Bonus just gives you another name in the hat for each point "so to speak". Actually most systems like NV you get more chances to draw a low number with the lowest number going to the draw. Low man wins. Also with this system is point squaring which in theory gives you many more chances to draw that low number.

There are a ton of variations of these systems based on percentages going to points/random and depending on the amount of tags available each year.

Then there is just plain old random.
They all are tough, unless it's your time

Thanks guys!

 

[Bighorns]

Welcome to the Wyoming Wildlife Taskforce
Meeting #8 - March 22 and 23, 2022 in Casper at the Ramkota Hotel. Meeting #9 - April 28, 2022 in Casper at the Clarion Inn. Meeting#10 - May 23-24, 2022 in Casper at the Hilton Garden Inn. Meeting#11 - June 8-9, 2022 in Casper at the Hilton Garden Inn.

You can join these meeting through Zoom.

I'm sorry to appear ignorant, Wyoming is the only state I've ever bought points for.

Could someone explain the fundamental difference between preference & bonus points please & what's the squaring deal everyone is mentioning?

I'm not being sarcastic or inflammatory, I really don't know.

Thanks.

Here is a link to some number crunching supplied to the Task Force that delves into some of the various differences in the models: "Wyoming Wildlife Task Force Statistical Models"

Wyoming Wildlife Taskforce Statistical Models.pdf

drive.google.com

 

[robby denning]

Thanks guys!

Hey Rob, I’m not sure if anybody posted this yet but we just did an article on Colorado’s OIL bonus point system last week before this Wy decision was even made. It’s by member Mike Street (he’s a mathematician)

“As many hunters know, drawing moose, sheep, and goat tags is very difficult. Up to this point, it looks like the Bonus Point system is holding up to what it aimed to do. At the same time, it is obvious from the increasing number of applicants, and the pre-draw distributions, that the demand for these tags has not yet saturated and will only become more difficult to draw. Unfortunately for hunters, only time will tell if the Bonus Point system will hold its merit.”

Entire article here

Moose, Sheep, and Goat: Analyzing the Bonus Point System

Analyzing Bonus Points. Does the Bonus Points system meet its intended purpose and favor applicants with more points?

www.rokslide.com

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[dieselchessy]

You have a clear misunderstanding of how points work and you aren't the only one. It's impossible for a bonus point holder to need more bonus points to draw a tag from one year to the next. It might help, but it is not required.

Under bonus points, one point is all that is required to draw. A first time applicant gets one random number, while a 10 times applicant gets 100 numbers(or 10 if not a squared system). Only your low number counts. From one year to the next it never changes, it's a totally random system not affected by how many bonus points you have. It is not possible to have point creep. "Point creep" is a catch-all phrase, that is meaningless in a true bonus point system, and commonly used by anyone who hates a preference point system. It pertains to how many pp are required to draw an area and how they can increase from one year to the next. That does not happen with bonus points.

I have no illusions, based on what you have already said that you will now understand this, but try. This is me trying to show "a little humility/support" that @tdhanses thinks Wyoming residents lack.

You seem to be just trying to discount the term “point creep” without acknowledging the fact that the difficulty in drawing a tag will increase over time regardless of the term used to describe it.
Also by your description Wyoming would have had no point creep due to some tags going to the random pool where low level point holders could draw them.

Given that you clearly don’t like the term “point creep” to describe the ever reducing odds of drawing a tag in a bonus point system. What term is it you would recommend people use to describe it?

 

[Bobbyboe]

You have a clear misunderstanding of how points work and you aren't the only one. It's impossible for a bonus point holder to need more bonus points to draw a tag from one year to the next. It might help, but it is not required.

Under bonus points, one point is all that is required to draw. A first time applicant gets one random number, while a 10 times applicant gets 100 numbers(or 10 if not a squared system). Only your low number counts. From one year to the next it never changes, it's a totally random system not affected by how many bonus points you have. It is not possible to have point creep. "Point creep" is a catch-all phrase, that is meaningless in a true bonus point system, and commonly used by anyone who hates a preference point system. It pertains to how many pp are required to draw an area and how they can increase from one year to the next. That does not happen with bonus points.

I have no illusions, based on what you have already said that you will now understand this, but try. This is me trying to show "a little humility/support" that @tdhanses thinks Wyoming residents lack.

I fully understand what you are saying about a bonus system and I am aware of how they work. Our view of them being an appropriate/effective way of running a draw system is different.

I think it’s disingenuous painting a bonus system to a new person as, yup you have a chance with 0 points. Yes you have a chance, but it’s power all odds (exaggeration). Same for someone with 2,3,5 pts. They’ll never catch up to have better than 2% odds in their lifetime. Odds at those low point levels are realistically 1 in 20,000. No reason to sugar coat it.

But as someone else said, some will apply because they have a chance. Those 150 bucks would be better spent in raffles.

 

[Bobbyboe]

Hey Rob, I’m not sure if anybody posted this yet but we just did an article on Colorado’s OIL bonus point system last week before this Wy decision was even made. It’s by member Mike Street (he’s a mathematician)

“As many hunters know, drawing moose, sheep, and goat tags is very difficult. Up to this point, it looks like the Bonus Point system is holding up to what it aimed to do. At the same time, it is obvious from the increasing number of applicants, and the pre-draw distributions, that the demand for these tags has not yet saturated and will only become more difficult to draw. Unfortunately for hunters, only time will tell if the Bonus Point system will hold its merit.”

Entire article here

Moose, Sheep, and Goat: Analyzing the Bonus Point System

Analyzing Bonus Points. Does the Bonus Points system meet its intended purpose and favor applicants with more points?

www.rokslide.com

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks for posting the article. Just scanned through it. Here is my takeaway, it’s obvious that different people have different definitions of successful. The article clearly states the system is working, though every year more people jump in and odds get lower. To me, that means the system is not working.

 

[tdhanses]

Why in Gods name would any resident of Wyoming show any support or humility for a nonresident we owe U nothing. I for one and many other residents of Wyoming would like to see 90/10 for EDA and while we are at it Wyoming needs to do away with reduced price Nr Cow calf elk tags those need to go to full price nr doe fawn antelope tags need to double in price...

Why stop there, why not sell public lands to private citizens as well? I’m sure everyone hunts their own land in WY or has the means to buy their own, why have NR subsidies where you hunt?

 

[tdhanses]

If you are expecting the worst for DEA (to be tricked or slapped in the face) I would use your points and go hunting asap. That's why you bought them. You will enjoy the hunt and avoid any future tag quota/preference point apocalypse.

I’ll only do general for elk, stop buying pts for everything else and probably never use my DA points. Once the change happens I’ll probably just go with landowner tags.

 

[Bobbyboe]

Fill me in, as I may have missed it. Are resident big 5 tags going to bonus too?

 

[JM77]

You seem to be just trying to discount the term “point creep” without acknowledging the fact that the difficulty in drawing a tag will increase over time regardless of the term used to describe it.
Also by your description Wyoming would have had no point creep due to some tags going to the random pool where low level point holders could draw them.

Given that you clearly don’t like the term “point creep” to describe the ever reducing odds of drawing a tag in a bonus point system. What term is it you would recommend people use to describe it?

Does there need to be a term? Point creep is clearly defined for PP. If you want a term, how about "decreasing odds". That is exactly true.

 

[tdhanses]

Your explanation is the only one that truly makes sense. Change to bonus to try and keep people applying.

Very tough sell if a 1 in 20,000 chance costs you $150. But hey, next year you’ll have more bonus points…. Wait, so will everyone else.

Edit, I’m off on my math. It would be closer to 1 in 200,000 chance.

Better off buying a raffle that is 1 in 300 for $100.

 

[Bobbyboe]

Does there need to be a term? Point creep is clearly defined for PP. If you want a term, how about "decreasing odds". That is exactly true.

Point Creep or decreasing odds, both the same in my book. Are residents subject to the bonus system?

 

[LostArra]

I’ll probably just go with landowner tags.

In Wyoming??