Wyoming Non Resident Preference Point Increase

[FullCurlEarl]

Nobody said shouldn't have to pay to play, Its the milk every penny to play thats the problem. Nevada just cost me about $373. That was points, application fee, hunt lic of $156, PIW mule deer chance, Silver State lottery chances on all species. Now thats a fair fee. And the permits are half or less than Wyoming if successful.

Oh, and sheep points are $10 vs $150 in Wy.

 

[RyanT26]

Oh, and sheep points are $10 vs $150 in Wy.

If your buying sheep points in Wyoming and currently have less then 25 points you are a fool with money. Unless you’re 12, even then you are just pissing away money.

 

[CMF]

If your buying sheep points in Wyoming and currently have less then 25 points you are a fool with money. Unless you’re 12, even then you are just pissing away money.

Yea, Wyoming Sheep is the absolute biggest fraud of all the states and species.

I can only figure that people just don't understand how it works, or they are holding some hope that they'll turn preference points into bonus points.

$6k of preference points over 40 years for a 1.8% chance.

Ai response to draw odds for the next 40 years.

• Random draw only (your main/only realistic path early on): ~5 tags / ~11,000 applicants ≈ 0.045% chance per year. Over 40 independent years: cumulative probability of drawing at least once via random ≈ 1.8% (calculated as 1 − (1 − 0.00045)^40).
• Preference-point draw: Essentially 0% for the first 25+ years. You start at 0 points and gain 1 per unsuccessful year. It currently takes 26+ points for even limited preference odds (248 nonresidents already hold 26+, and the max is 31). By the time you reach ~26 points (~26 years from now, at age ~67), point creep will have pushed the cutoff higher, and thousands of original point holders will still be ahead (they always stay ahead of you until they draw or drop out). Even with 5% attrition helping clear lower levels, the committed high-point cohort turns over slowly (~13 years just to clear the current 26+ group at current tag numbers). Your annual preference odds will remain near-zero through your 40-year window; any realistic shot would require 50–100+ years under current dynamics.

 

[Steve O]

Yea, Wyoming Sheep is the absolute biggest fraud of all the states and species.

I can only figure that people just don't understand how it works, or they are holding some hope that they'll turn preference points into bonus points.

$6k of preference points over 40 years for a 1.8% chance.

Ai response to draw odds for the next 40 years.

• Random draw only (your main/only realistic path early on): ~5 tags / ~11,000 applicants ≈ 0.045% chance per year. Over 40 independent years: cumulative probability of drawing at least once via random ≈ 1.8% (calculated as 1 − (1 − 0.00045)^40).
• Preference-point draw: Essentially 0% for the first 25+ years. You start at 0 points and gain 1 per unsuccessful year. It currently takes 26+ points for even limited preference odds (248 nonresidents already hold 26+, and the max is 31). By the time you reach ~26 points (~26 years from now, at age ~67), point creep will have pushed the cutoff higher, and thousands of original point holders will still be ahead (they always stay ahead of you until they draw or drop out). Even with 5% attrition helping clear lower levels, the committed high-point cohort turns over slowly (~13 years just to clear the current 26+ group at current tag numbers). Your annual preference odds will remain near-zero through your 40-year window; any realistic shot would require 50–100+ years under current dynamics.

Your AI has bad information. There is only one random sheep tag for the scum non residents…in years the Super tag winners are WY residents. So it’s much worse than you portray.

But I just sent them over $3000 yesterday.

 

[mt terry d]

Yea, Wyoming Sheep is the absolute biggest fraud of all the states and species.

I can only figure that people just don't understand how it works, or they are holding some hope that they'll turn preference points into bonus points.

$6k of preference points over 40 years for a 1.8% chance.

Ai response to draw odds for the next 40 years.

• Random draw only (your main/only realistic path early on): ~5 tags / ~11,000 applicants ≈ 0.045% chance per year. Over 40 independent years: cumulative probability of drawing at least once via random ≈ 1.8% (calculated as 1 − (1 − 0.00045)^40).
• Preference-point draw: Essentially 0% for the first 25+ years. You start at 0 points and gain 1 per unsuccessful year. It currently takes 26+ points for even limited preference odds (248 nonresidents already hold 26+, and the max is 31). By the time you reach ~26 points (~26 years from now, at age ~67), point creep will have pushed the cutoff higher, and thousands of original point holders will still be ahead (they always stay ahead of you until they draw or drop out). Even with 5% attrition helping clear lower levels, the committed high-point cohort turns over slowly (~13 years just to clear the current 26+ group at current tag numbers). Your annual preference odds will remain near-zero through your 40-year window; any realistic shot would require 50–100+ years under current dynamics.

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia0.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2Fv1.Y2lkPTc5MGI3NjExam0xbXN4eG51YWcwNnVmYWI4cHh4bXZ6Nnd1MGRmdm01aGF3ZG05bCZlcD12MV9naWZzX3NlYXJjaCZjdD1n%2Fj6uK36y32LxQs%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=584cdbe80949fe143f37a598b240a5259769d38a65ca2a530a3ddb4545df00d4

 

[Laramie]

Bottom line - people will pay the $75. 90% of the guys on here complaining will buy a point next year and new applicants will more than make up for those that take their ball and go home. It won't help point creep, at all. WG&F will be validated in their decision to raise rates and the legislature will consider raising the maximums in the next 3 years. This is nowhere even close to the top. Moose and sheep points will likely go to $250-$500 and elk, deer and antelope will be at least $100 within the next couple of years. At some point, point creep will slow or stop for a bit, encouraging new people to jump in the game because it will appear that they have a chance.

My only complaint is the justification in raising rates when there isn't a budget shortage. Hopefully the money is put to good use providing future generations with the opportunity at a tag or two in their lifetimes.

 

[Rich M]

Bottom line - people will pay the $75. 90% of the guys on here complaining will buy a point next year and new applicants will more than make up for those that take their ball and go home. It won't help point creep, at all. WG&F will be validated in their decision to raise rates and the legislature will consider raising the maximums in the next 3 years. This is nowhere even close to the top. Moose and sheep points will likely go to $250-$500 and elk, deer and antelope will be at least $100 within the next couple of years. At some point, point creep will slow or stop for a bit, encouraging new people to jump in the game because it will appear that they have a chance.

My only complaint is the justification in raising rates when there isn't a budget shortage. Hopefully the money is put to good use providing future generations with the opportunity at a tag or two in their lifetimes.

Even if the "good" tags went OIL, there would be no trouble filling them.

 

[MTBackroads]

They are not just beans, they are magic beans

 

[LongWayAround]

Anyone buying points for something that they have no chance of drawing gets no sympathy from me.

I explained the draw process in a different state to a guy I knew. My point was that he had absolutely no chance of drawing what he was applying for. As in no possible route at that time. He dismissed me and basically said there was always a chance... except there wasn't.

 

[826]

Anyone buying points for something that they have no chance of drawing gets no sympathy from me.

I explained the draw process in a different state to a guy I knew. My point was that he had absolutely no chance of drawing what he was applying for. As in no possible route at that time. He dismissed me and basically said there was always a chance... except there wasn't.

Yep. I had the Sheep Bug bad about 10 years ago and took a deep dive into how to draw a tag someday.

I REALLY wanted to believe that I'd have a chance in Wyoming if I started buying points but even then I might has well just used my money to start a fire instead.

 

[Neb]

Most out of state sheep, moose and goat tags are a scam. Not just Wyoming.

 

[826]

Most out of state sheep, moose and goat tags are a scam. Not just Wyoming.

Scam seems like a harsh word as they aren't really hiding the fact you don't have a chance! Ha It's just that we all desperately want hope so most people ignore the obvious

Your odds may be slim in Idaho but at least you have the same equal chance every year.

*If that motivated any of you to put in for Sheep, Moose or Goat in Idaho you're too late for this year, it closed yesterday

 

[Neb]

Yes, scam is probably a bit extreme. The reality is those types of hunts are near impossible to draw even with the best odds if you haven't been in the game for a long time. At this point I might be better off playing the lotto and hoping to buy the hunts I want.

 

[BRTreedogs]

How is it a scam when all the info is free for the public to find?

Just because you don’t like it, or don’t understand how it works, doesn’t mean it’s a scam.

 

[Neb]

I understand exactly how it works. Thank you.

Since the discussion has largely revolved around non resident Wyoming sheep tags, let's take a look at that one.

We can look at unit 105 since that's the only one that offers a bonus tag.

2025 applications = 1,548
2025 pref tags = 3
2025 rand tags = 1

So, an applicant had a 1 in 1548 chance of drawing the random tag. Which was the only random tag offered in 2025 for sheep.

1 of the 3 tags was drawn with 29 preference points. The other two pref tags were drawn from the 25 point pool of which there were 28 applicants. Leaving 26 people with 26 points applying for sheep tags in 2026 assuming they apply for the 105 again. Assuming things don't change dramatically, there will be approximately 325 people with 20 points or more applying for unit 105 in 2026. How many years will it take for those people to work through the system at 3 tags a year? The answer is more than 100 years.

So, if I have fewer than 20 points, what is the likelihood I will live long enough to draw a tag? I would say those odds are worse than the 1 in 1548 chance of drawing a random tag, but I could be wrong.

Clearly, the other units have fewer applicants. But, i suspect that people are going to switch units to draw a tag. With a total of 17 pref sheep tags available to non residents, it would still take 20 years just to work through the 20+ point holders applying for unit 105. That does not include applicants applying for other units, which would certainly lengthen the time necessary to draw a tag.

So, is it a scam? No, not a scam, but at $150 for a preference point Wyoming is raising a lot of money selling an opportunity that is not likely to every materialize for the vast majority of applicants.

 

[wapitibob]

"So, is it a scam? No, not a scam, but at $150 for a preference point Wyoming is raising a lot of money selling an opportunity that is not likely to every materialize for the vast majority of applicants."

There are a lot of people applying for hunts all across the west that have no clue what they're doing, as shown by simply looking at the annual Sheep points purchase totals.

 

[Steve O]

I understand exactly how it works. Thank you.

Since the discussion has largely revolved around non resident Wyoming sheep tags, let's take a look at that one.

We can look at unit 105 since that's the only one that offers a bonus tag.

2025 applications = 1,548
2025 pref tags = 3
2025 rand tags = 1

So, an applicant had a 1 in 1548 chance of drawing the random tag. Which was the only random tag offered in 2025 for sheep.

1 of the 3 tags was drawn with 29 preference points. The other two pref tags were drawn from the 25 point pool of which there were 28 applicants. Leaving 26 people with 26 points applying for sheep tags in 2026 assuming they apply for the 105 again. Assuming things don't change dramatically, there will be approximately 325 people with 20 points or more applying for unit 105 in 2026. How many years will it take for those people to work through the system at 3 tags a year? The answer is more than 100 years.

So, if I have fewer than 20 points, what is the likelihood I will live long enough to draw a tag? I would say those odds are worse than the 1 in 1548 chance of drawing a random tag, but I could be wrong.

Clearly, the other units have fewer applicants. But, i suspect that people are going to switch units to draw a tag. With a total of 17 pref sheep tags available to non residents, it would still take 20 years just to work through the 20+ point holders applying for unit 105. That does not include applicants applying for other units, which would certainly lengthen the time necessary to draw a tag.

So, is it a scam? No, not a scam, but at $150 for a preference point Wyoming is raising a lot of money selling an opportunity that is not likely to every materialize for the vast majority of applicants.

Unit 105 is for deer. Unit 5 sheep could possibly have a random tag each year depending on who the Super Tag winners are and what they do.

 

[BuckSmasher]

"So, is it a scam? No, not a scam, but at $150 for a preference point Wyoming is raising a lot of money selling an opportunity that is not likely to every materialize for the vast majority of applicants."

There are a lot of people applying for hunts all across the west that have no clue what they're doing, as shown by simply looking at the annual Sheep points purchase totals.

"Apply, apply, apply" they say.

I buy 2-5 powerballs a year so I can't point a finger. I do wonder how many of them realize they have basically 0 chance of drawing though.

 

[Steve O]

And add to that, these odds are child’s play. My mountain goat tag was 1:2412 and my desert sheep in AZ was incalculable it is so small…not enough zeros available before the decimal point. Unless my odds are zero in WY, which they are not, I’ll be paying whatever inflated rate they ask. They’ve got me and there are not many others available.

 

[Neb]

Unit 105 is for deer. Unit 5 sheep could possibly have a random tag each year depending on who the Super Tag winners are and what they do.

My bad. You are correct, it is unit 5.